What is David Nolan's strike rate?

David Nolan has won 577 of 5,623 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Nolan do best at?

Ayr by strike rate: 37 wins from 271 rides (13.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does David Nolan ride most for?

David O'Meara, with 1,574 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 190 (12.1%).

Is David Nolan in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 7 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is David Nolan's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 5,588 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

David Nolan

5,623 rides in the lifetime window · 2,536 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 6 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

577–5,623

Wins / Runs

10.3%

Strike rate

n=5,623

1,690 (30%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=5,588 · 0.84 incl. margin

−1,302.92

£1 level stake

n=5,623 at SP · −23.2%

£5.80m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 300 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (508 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 5,623 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Dec 27.7% when favourite David O'Meara: 12.1% from 1,574 LTO winners: 15.2% Rides the favourite in 9% of races

The read

It is weakest at Wetherby (2.1% over 48 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.2% (n=508, Fair A/E 0.89), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 5.2% (n=96, Fair A/E 0.68). David O'Meara supplies 28% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.1%, A/E 1.03) — the market has that partnership priced right. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Unibet All-weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes at Lingfield (AW) (Mar 2016, £93,375). The standout partner of the record: Molinari (IRE) — 6 wins from 25 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Nov–Dec.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

9.3%−1.0

n=2,530 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −673.05

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.2%+4.9

n=508 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −159.42

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

9.1%−1.2

n=703 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −172.20

When favourite

27.7%

n=483 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −51.31

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

8.6%−1.7

n=35 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −14.67

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.3%−5.0

n=810 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −391.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.2%−5.1

n=96 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −51.09

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With horses switching code 2.2% vs 10.3% · n=90

At York 3.8% vs 10.3% · n=235

At Wetherby 2.1% vs 10.3% · n=48

On last-time-out winners 15.2% vs 10.3% · n=508

With David Menuisier 18.8% vs 10.3% · n=32

With Donald McCain 2.4% vs 10.3% · n=41

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 5,614 577 10.3% −1,293.92

Hurdle 6 0 0% −6.00

NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,495 169 11.3% −238.31

Good 1,482 150 10.1% −332.94

Good to Firm 1,278 129 10.1% −366.19

Soft 629 71 11.3% −68.59

Good to Soft 608 52 8.6% −221.39

Heavy 113 5 4.4% −78.50

Firm 18 1 5.6% +3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 681 80 11.7% −121.48

Redcar 380 37 9.7% −46.30

Wolverhampton (AW) 363 42 11.6% +3.97

Southwell (AW) 323 35 10.8% −81.97

Thirsk 322 33 10.2% −66.04

Ripon 296 38 12.8% −14.53

Doncaster 286 23 8% −139.88

Beverley 281 23 8.2% −98.93

Ayr 271 37 13.7% −25.27

Catterick 250 20 8% −138.66

Hamilton 250 31 12.4% −73.00

Musselburgh 240 26 10.8% −31.42

York 235 9 3.8% −147.75

Pontefract 206 25 12.1% +6.65

Haydock 198 15 7.6% −52.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,983 213 10.7% −319.81

Class 6 1,409 159 11.3% −275.17

Class 4 1,352 142 10.5% −346.37

Class 3 429 35 8.2% −172.48

Class 2 337 22 6.5% −129.00

Class 1 96 5 5.2% −51.09

Class 7 10 1 10% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 600 163 27.2% 1.02 −45.23

2nd–3rd fav 1,278 214 16.7% 1.03 −121.19

4th–6th fav 1,895 147 7.8% 0.94 −420.50

7th+ in betting 1,850 53 2.9% 0.81 −716.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 2,342 253 10.8% −409.76

1m – 1m1f 1,185 107 9% −389.11

Under 6f 944 110 11.7% −111.69

1m2f – 1m4f 848 86 10.1% −272.77

1m5f – 2m 286 21 7.3% −101.59

2m1f – 2m4f 16 0 0% −16.00

2m5f – 3m 2 0 0% −2.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 161 8 5% −90.10

2009 190 15 7.9% +64.75

2010 163 15 9.2% −53.00

2011 156 8 5.1% −61.75

2012 111 7 6.3% −19.67

2013 178 23 12.9% −28.79

2014 267 36 13.5% +87.68

2015 314 38 12.1% −89.98

2016 375 41 10.9% −72.96

2017 309 24 7.8% −94.25

2018 339 45 13.3% −82.87

2019 354 34 9.6% −146.82

2020 342 39 11.4% −46.92

2021 257 22 8.6% −92.10

2022 207 19 9.2% −75.50

2023 324 36 11.1% −58.18

2024 568 70 12.3% −146.20

2025 532 55 10.3% −176.67

2026 476 42 8.8% −119.59

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 4,221 448 10.6% −924.12

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,040 205 10% −571.63

11-13 runners 1,736 163 9.4% −128.12

5-7 runners 975 155 15.9% −185.06

14-16 runners 579 35 6% −250.00

17+ runners 231 8 3.5% −141.00

2-4 runners 62 11 17.7% −27.11

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Green Park (IRE) 31 3 12 6 Apr 11

Molinari (IRE) 25 6 13 30 Apr 25

Grant Wood (IRE) 23 4 8 15 Sep 26

Leodis Dream (IRE) 23 6 11 11 Mar 25

Three Saints Bay (IRE) 23 4 5 6 Sep 22

Emperor Caradoc (FR) 21 4 5 4 Nov 26

Hajjam (GB) 21 4 7 13 Aug 22

Highland Acclaim (IRE) 21 0 5 3 Sep 19

Arrange (IRE) 20 3 9 31 Jul 26

King of Rhythm (IRE) 20 1 5 29 Jan 10

Brierty (IRE) 19 2 9 22 May 10

Ventura Express (GB) 18 2 8 20 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 2,536 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 10 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 7

Only 7 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

91710910121011971221

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid O'Meara

28% of all rides
12.1% SR · A/E 1.03

TrainerRWSR£1

David O'Meara 1,574 190 12.1% −304.84

Richard Fahey 830 103 12.4% −81.21

Declan Carroll 475 44 9.3% −80.26

Paul Midgley 435 44 10.1% −117.52

Ivan Furtado 171 20 11.7% +8.83

Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood 164 19 11.6% −8.09

Iain Jardine 102 10 9.8% −38.50

Martin Todhunter 102 16 15.7% +21.25

Tim Easterby 99 9 9.1% −40.25

Liam Bailey 77 3 3.9% −45.00

Patrick Morris 70 7 10% −33.50

Ann Duffield 68 4 5.9% −39.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

605

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£6.00m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 70 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Alben Star (IRE) — Unibet All-weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes Lingfield (AW) · Mar 2016 · Class 2

£93,375

Dolphin Vista (IRE) — totepool Live Info Download The App Handicap Beverley · Aug 2016 · Class 2

£28,013

Brae Hill (IRE) — William Hill Spring Mile (Handicap) (Str) Doncaster · Mar 2014 · Class 2

£28,013

Notable horses

Molinari (IRE) Leodis Dream (IRE) Mayoman (IRE) Ey Up Its The Boss (GB) Mujassam (GB) Alsvinder (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 12.9% · 21–163

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,990 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.

Dark Angel (IRE) 9.4% · 12–127

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,957 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Kodiac (GB) 13.6% · 15–110

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,606 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.

Acclamation (GB) 6.1% · 6–98

Progeny have won 10% of 19,719 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 6.1% · 6–98

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,875 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Kyllachy (GB) 12% · 10–83

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,093 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,093 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Changeofmind (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 7/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Masai Angel (FR)T: Richard & Peter Fahey Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 4/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Get Up Everybody (IRE)T: Paul Midgley Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 8/1

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Ey Up He's A Star (GB)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 8/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Thunder Roar (GB)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood Watch Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8.5f · Soft · 14 ran 11th 9/2

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Selection (IRE)T: Ivan Furtado Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 10/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Emperor Caradoc (FR)T: Paul Midgley Ladies Day 8th May On Sale Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 11/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Zermatt Star (IRE)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood Munich's Grosser Dallmayr-preis Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 11th 12/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Rock Of England (IRE)T: Paul Midgley 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 10th 16/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Regalian (GB)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 9/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Alfa Kellenic (GB)T: Ivan Furtado AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 33/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Jenni (IRE)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 28/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Run This Way (GB)T: Paul Midgley Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 5th 12/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Thunder Roar (GB)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood Jumps Looks Better On Racing Tv Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 4th 4/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar She's Got Bottle (GB)T: Lizzie Quinlan Market Cross Jewellers Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Heavy · 14 ran 12th 125/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Gold Queen Kindly (IRE)T: Roger Fell Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 6th 22/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Zarvali (IRE)T: Roger Fell Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 13 ran 6th 12/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Andesite (GB)T: Roger Fell William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 7th 33/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Unchartedterritory (IRE)T: David O'Meara William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 16th 7/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Ventura Express (GB)T: Paul Midgley Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 17/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 2) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is David Nolan's strike rate?: David Nolan has won 577 of 5,623 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Nolan do best at?: Ayr by strike rate: 37 wins from 271 rides (13.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does David Nolan ride most for?: David O'Meara, with 1,574 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 190 (12.1%).
Is David Nolan in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 7 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David Nolan's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 5,588 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.