What is Kaiya Fraser's strike rate?

Kaiya Fraser has won 157 of 1,320 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.9% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Kaiya Fraser do best at?

Hamilton by strike rate: 13 wins from 72 rides (18.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Kaiya Fraser ride most for?

Harry Eustace, with 236 rides since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (12.3%).

Is Kaiya Fraser in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 13 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Kaiya Fraser's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 1,313 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Kaiya Fraser

1,320 rides in the lifetime window · 598 individual horses

As at 15 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 8 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

157–1,320

Wins / Runs

11.9%

Strike rate

n=1,320

403 (31%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=1,313 · 0.90 incl. margin

−222.96

£1 level stake

n=1,320 at SP · −16.9%

£1.80m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.3%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 70 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (150 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,320 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Apr 30.6% when favourite Harry Eustace: 12.3% from 236 LTO winners: 20% Claiming: 13.9% Rides the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Hamilton (18.1%, n=72), clear of the rider's 11.9% baseline. It is weakest at Ayr (4.2% over 71 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20% (n=150, Fair A/E 1.12), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.5% (n=109, Fair A/E 0.89). Harry Eustace supplies 18% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.3%, A/E 0.91). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Coral Vintage Stakes at Goodwood (Jul 2026, £113,420). The standout partner of the record: Brazilian Rose (IRE) — 7 wins from 26 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.5%−0.4

n=598 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −27.82

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20%+8.1

n=150 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −19.36

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

11.6%−0.3

n=173 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −23.05

When favourite

30.6%

n=134 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −18.26

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

13.9%+2.0

n=604 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −15.35

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.5%−6.4

n=109 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −48.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.8%−7.1

n=21 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −13.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Chris Wall 23.7% vs 11.9% · n=38

On last-time-out winners 20% vs 11.9% · n=150

At Ayr 4.2% vs 11.9% · n=71

At Hamilton 18.1% vs 11.9% · n=72

With Ruth Carr 18.5% vs 11.9% · n=54

With James Fanshawe 18.5% vs 11.9% · n=54

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 588 75 12.8% −58.23

Good 285 33 11.6% −64.02

Good to Firm 198 26 13.1% −4.37

Good to Soft 136 14 10.3% −40.77

Soft 89 8 9% −46.57

Heavy 23 1 4.3% −8.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 230 31 13.5% −44.13

Wolverhampton (AW) 100 12 12% −35.22

Southwell (AW) 88 13 14.8% +48.45

Kempton (AW) 81 10 12.3% −14.68

Hamilton 72 13 18.1% +7.66

Ayr 71 3 4.2% −48.50

Yarmouth 55 3 5.5% −30.67

Musselburgh 54 5 9.3% −2.00

Lingfield (AW) 53 6 11.3% −12.15

Brighton 42 3 7.1% −23.75

Chelmsford (AW) 36 3 8.3% −0.50

Redcar 34 2 5.9% +2.00

Doncaster 27 4 14.8% +3.13

Nottingham 26 6 23.1% +10.50

Pontefract 24 5 20.8% −0.15

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 482 62 12.9% −52.74

Class 5 411 49 11.9% −104.08

Class 4 281 30 10.7% −3.49

Class 2 65 8 12.3% −37.52

Class 3 60 7 11.7% −11.63

Class 1 21 1 4.8% −13.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 155 46 29.7% 1.05 −18.23

2nd–3rd fav 328 53 16.2% 0.97 −57.23

4th–6th fav 460 45 9.8% 1.18 +24.50

7th+ in betting 377 13 3.4% 1.06 −172.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Brazilian Rose (IRE) 26 7 11 18 Sep 26

Hostelry (GB) 18 5 9 27 May 26

Divine Comedy (IRE) 18 6 11 20 Oct 25

Kyber Crystal (IRE) 16 2 8 20 Sep 26

King Chaos (IRE) 16 1 4 10 Aug 26

One Of Our Own (GB) 15 3 5 26 Oct 26

Oh So Audacious (GB) 15 2 7 16 Oct 25

Spanish Hustle (GB) 13 2 6 1 Aug 26

Lion's House (GB) 12 1 4 6 Nov 26

Starliner (IRE) 12 1 2 1 Aug 26

Judgment Call (GB) 12 2 3 10 Mar 26

Shine On Brendan (IRE) 11 2 5 9 Oct 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 598 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 13

Only 13 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1514161512138111311813

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardHarry Eustace

18% of all rides
12.3% SR · A/E 0.91

TrainerRWSR£1

Harry Eustace 236 29 12.3% −88.47

Rebecca Menzies 220 26 11.8% −55.06

Linda Perratt 97 8 8.2% −42.17

Jim Goldie 66 11 16.7% +23.66

Ruth Carr 54 10 18.5% +8.75

James Fanshawe 54 10 18.5% +5.24

John Butler 52 9 17.3% −11.00

Gemma Tutty 52 6 11.5% +9.23

Michael Attwater 38 3 7.9% −4.50

Chris Wall 38 9 23.7% +73.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

157

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.80m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 45 wins

Dr Rascal (GB) — Coral Vintage Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Jul 2026 · Group 2

£113,420

Divine Comedy (IRE) — Betfred Nifty 50 Hell Nook Handicap Haydock · May 2024 · Class 2

£25,770

Adonius (IRE) — CAA Stellar Lily Agnes EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) Chester · May 2026 · Class 2

£25,770

Notable horses

Brazilian Rose (IRE) Divine Comedy (IRE) Hostelry (GB) One Of Our Own (GB) Adonius (IRE) Dr Rascal (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Showcasing (GB) 18.6% · 8–43

Progeny have won 10.1% of 11,666 runs since 2014 (999 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Kingman (GB) 12.8% · 5–39

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,534 runs since 2018 (778 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 8.9% from 123.

Calyx (GB) 21.1% · 8–38

Progeny have won 13.4% of 1,526 runs since 2023 (175 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.3% from 172. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.9% from 111.

Churchill (IRE) 18.2% · 6–33

Progeny have won 11% of 4,855 runs since 2021 (460 horses).

Havana Gold (IRE) 3.3% · 1–30

Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,064 runs since 2017 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 118. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.

Kodiac (GB) 6.7% · 2–30

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,605 runs since 2010 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,320 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,320 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 29 August 2021 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Leading Times (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 16/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) King Juan (GB)T: Harry Eustace AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 33/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Too Much (GB)T: David Thompson Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 16/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Yaaser (IRE)T: Jim Goldie All-Weather Championship Season 14 Has Begun Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 11/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Lion's House (GB)T: Linda Perratt Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 11/2

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Miss Eileen (IRE)T: Rebecca Menzies AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 33/1

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Munajad (IRE)T: Harry Eustace AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 25/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Somkiyr (FR)T: Andy Irvine racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 13th 66/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Forever Perfect (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 14/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mr Rocco (GB)T: James Horton AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 10/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Stansfield Dream (IRE)T: Harry Eustace AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 200/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Enamored (GB)T: Ed Dunlop AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 33/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Ancient Times (GB)T: Harry Eustace Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 6/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Stellar Vision (GB)T: Stuart Williams Munich's Allianz-grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 10th 33/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Green Sovereign (GB)T: Harry Eustace Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 14th 100/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Sydney Grace (IRE)T: Charlie Fellowes Irish Stallion Farms Ebf 'bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 40/1

29 Oct 26 Bath No Claims Bonus (GB)T: Harry Eustace Bristol Motor Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5.5f · Soft · 16 ran 4th 22/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Fort Mchenry (IRE)T: Charlie Fellowes EBF Stallions Golden Horn Maiden Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only)Class 3 · 8.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 66/1

27 Oct 26 Catterick Oracle Mission (GB)T: Harry Eustace Jumps Season Starts 20th November Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Soft · 10 ran 5th 14/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar One Of Our Own (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Kaiya Fraser's strike rate?: Kaiya Fraser has won 157 of 1,320 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.9% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kaiya Fraser do best at?: Hamilton by strike rate: 13 wins from 72 rides (18.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Kaiya Fraser ride most for?: Harry Eustace, with 236 rides since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (12.3%).
Is Kaiya Fraser in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 13 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Kaiya Fraser's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 1,313 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.