What is Leigh Roche's strike rate?

Leigh Roche has won 366 of 5,455 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Leigh Roche do best at?

Killarney by strike rate: 20 wins from 156 rides (12.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Leigh Roche ride most for?

M D O'Callaghan, with 636 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 61 (9.6%).

Is Leigh Roche in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Leigh Roche's Fair A/E?

1.08, from 5,452 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Leigh Roche

5,455 rides in the lifetime window · 2,842 individual horses

As at 15 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

366–5,455

Wins / Runs

6.7%

Strike rate

n=5,455

1,133 (21%)

Placed

1.08

Fair A/E

n=5,452 · 0.86 incl. margin

−1,507.24

£1 level stake

n=5,455 at SP · −27.6%

£6.61m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 290 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.08). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 12% (370 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 5,455 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 29.4% when favourite M D O'Callaghan: 9.6% from 636 LTO winners: 12.2% Claiming: 7.3% Rides the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Tramore (15.9%, n=69) and Killarney (12.8%, n=156) — all clear of the rider's 6.7% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 12.2% (n=370, Fair A/E 1.06). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 4.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.68 and −155.87 to a £1 stake over 287 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. M D O'Callaghan supplies 12% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.6% vs 6.7%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 12 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes at Curragh (Sep 2021, £147,500). The standout partner of the record: Patrickswell (IRE) — 7 wins from 42 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.8%−0.9

n=2,842 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −1,008.82

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

12.2%+5.5

n=370 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −87.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.3%−0.4

n=957 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −107.96

When favourite

29.4%

n=221 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −7.94

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.3%+0.6

n=1,030 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −317.85

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.7%−1.0

n=2,708 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −739.56

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.2%−2.5

n=287 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −155.87

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Tramore 15.9% vs 6.7% · n=69

With Marcus Callaghan 15.6% vs 6.7% · n=45

On last-time-out winners 12.2% vs 6.7% · n=370

At Killarney 12.8% vs 6.7% · n=156

With J A Nash 1.1% vs 6.7% · n=93

With Gavin Cromwell 0% vs 6.7% · n=40

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 1,450 111 7.7% −312.39

Good 1,365 92 6.7% −242.81

Standard (AW) 1,148 57 5% −559.52

Good to Firm 570 45 7.9% −152.26

Heavy 542 33 6.1% −168.88

Good to Soft 369 26 7% −80.38

Firm 11 2 18.2% +9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 1,135 57 5% −546.52

Curragh 720 41 5.7% −65.63

Leopardstown 448 21 4.7% −266.75

Naas 421 30 7.1% −142.93

Gowran Park 371 25 6.7% −60.99

Navan 349 25 7.2% −94.25

Cork 244 14 5.7% −109.50

Galway 227 20 8.8% −26.05

Tipperary 177 17 9.6% −0.12

Fairyhouse 167 7 4.2% −104.00

Killarney 156 20 12.8% +79.54

Roscommon 156 12 7.7% −40.13

Down Royal 139 12 8.6% −8.50

Limerick 131 8 6.1% −59.00

Bellewstown 122 8 6.6% −18.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 287 12 4.2% −155.87

Class 2 14 0 0% −14.00

Class 6 8 1 12.5% +3.00

Class 4 6 2 33.3% +17.50

Class 5 5 0 0% −5.00

Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 268 76 28.4% 1.17 +4.56

2nd–3rd fav 652 103 15.8% 1.12 −55.30

4th–6th fav 1,254 91 7.3% 1.00 −343.50

7th+ in betting 3,281 96 2.9% 1.04 −1,113.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,994 132 6.6% −529.79

1m – 1m1f 1,398 82 5.9% −472.75

1m2f – 1m4f 1,179 76 6.4% −519.20

Under 6f 563 50 8.9% +6.38

1m5f – 2m 300 26 8.7% +29.12

2m1f – 2m4f 21 0 0% −21.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 19 1 5.3% +2.00

2009 55 2 3.6% −29.00

2010 140 13 9.3% −19.25

2011 264 19 7.2% −111.88

2012 238 18 7.6% −39.50

2013 204 16 7.8% −63.25

2014 366 36 9.8% −53.10

2015 380 31 8.2% −103.66

2016 416 22 5.3% −150.39

2017 322 28 8.7% −40.89

2018 374 27 7.2% −141.83

2019 392 20 5.1% −216.29

2020 348 15 4.3% −90.00

2021 390 30 7.7% −98.38

2022 302 16 5.3% −89.50

2023 394 27 6.9% −117.17

2024 282 12 4.3% −41.00

2025 292 17 5.8% −100.15

2026 277 16 5.8% −4.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 3,160 238 7.5% −261.92

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 1,838 105 5.7% −617.06

11-13 runners 1,420 99 7% −359.01

8-10 runners 963 78 8.1% −230.87

17+ runners 870 49 5.6% −122.50

5-7 runners 340 31 9.1% −165.92

2-4 runners 24 4 16.7% −11.88

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Patrickswell (IRE) 42 7 11 21 Jun 14

Have A Nice Day (GB) 27 5 10 15 Jun 19

Rockbury Lad (GB) 25 1 6 30 Jan 26

Facethepuckout (IRE) 22 2 7 11 Oct 25

Twilight Jet (IRE) 22 4 6 12 Oct 24

Back Down Under (IRE) 20 1 10 18 Jul 26

Fastnet Crown (IRE) 20 3 6 27 Sep 22

Bog War (IRE) 20 3 6 24 Jun 19

Grey Danube (IRE) 20 6 8 19 Jan 18

Enter The Red (IRE) 18 1 9 20 Oct 21

Darkdeserthighway (IRE) 17 2 4 16 Jan 26

Northern Rocked (IRE) 16 3 6 13 Sep 16

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 2,842 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

685687786656

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardM D O'Callaghan

12% of all rides
9.6% SR · A/E 1.06

TrainerRWSR£1

M D O'Callaghan 636 61 9.6% −133.56

D K Weld 623 58 9.3% −213.70

W McCreery 218 20 9.2% −28.50

D J Bunyan 203 17 8.4% +46.00

Jarlath P Fahey 128 8 6.3% +37.75

J A Nash 93 1 1.1% −86.00

Aidan Anthony Howard 90 7 7.8% +7.50

Sabrina J Harty 87 8 9.2% −8.88

Adrian McGuinness 83 4 4.8% −43.00

Paul W Flynn 82 7 8.5% +68.00

Patrick J Flynn 81 7 8.6% −7.25

Padraig Roche 78 3 3.8% −36.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→

366

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£6.61m

Prize money

2014

Best season · 36 wins

Super King (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes Curragh · Sep 2021

£147,500

Lustown Baba (IRE) — Foran Equine Irish EBF Auction Race Final (Plus 10) Naas · Oct 2019

£71,160

Nans View (IRE) — Guinness Handicap (Premier Handicap) Galway · Aug 2025

£64,900

Notable horses

Patrickswell (IRE) Grey Danube (IRE) Have A Nice Day (GB) Twilight Jet (IRE) Aspen Belle (IRE) Fastnet Crown (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 8.6% · 8–93

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,605 runs since 2010 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.

Dandy Man (IRE) 1.1% · 1–91

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,990 runs since 2013 (929 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.

Dark Angel (IRE) 8% · 7–88

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,957 runs since 2011 (1,595 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Camacho (GB) 6.3% · 5–80

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,327 runs since 2009 (596 horses).

Footstepsinthesand (GB) 6.9% · 5–72

Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,819 runs since 2009 (938 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 321.

Acclamation (GB) 10.7% · 6–56

Progeny have won 10% of 19,719 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,455 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,455 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 July 2008 to 13 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Montevetro (IRE)T: Denis Gerard Hogan Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 50/1

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Jeffnjoe (IRE)T: Patrick J Flynn BAR 1 Betting 'Proud Supporter Of Irish Racing' Maiden10.5f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 28/1

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Activity (IRE)T: Mrs J. Harrington Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden8f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 125/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Jackandthefox (IRE)T: Miss Jennifer Anne Lynch Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 25/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Elmakaya (IRE)T: D K Weld Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden7f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 7/2

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Mr Mercury (IRE)T: J A Nash Velo Coffee At The Curragh Maiden12f · Yielding · 19 ran 13th 500/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Perry Mason (GB)T: Maurice Andrew Ahern Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 20th 13/2

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Breaking Dawn (GB)T: M D O'Callaghan Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 5th 40/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Byzantine Gold (IRE)T: A. Slattery Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 19th 200/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Mothel Abbey (IRE)T: Patrick J Flynn Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden8f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 150/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Arizona Storm (IRE)T: J A Nash Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 250/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Mogwli (IRE)T: W. McCreery See You At The GR1 Double Header 21 & 22 November Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)7f · Yielding · 12 ran 9th 12/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Tide Of Fortune (IRE)T: Richard Brabazon Premiere Weekend Two-Day Ticket Just €35 Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 3rd 9/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Angel Invincible (IRE)T: Daniel McLoughlin Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 10th 150/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Savannah Sun (IRE)T: Martin Hassett Irishinjuredjockeys.com Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 300/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Rio Doce (IRE)T: John Andrew Kinsella Navan Racecourse Handicap14f · Yielding · 23 ran 3rd 18/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Happy Henry (IRE)T: W. McCreery Final Fence Marquee Hospitality Package 14th & 15th November On Sale Now Handicap5f · Yielding · 8 ran 4th 7/2J

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Allirelandmaterial (IRE)T: W. McCreery Navan Racing Festival Advanced Price Tickets On Sale Now Maiden5f · Yielding · 9 ran 6th 40/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Gonirianbotharleat (IRE)T: Miss Jennifer Anne Lynch Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse 5th & 13th December Handicap6f · Yielding · 21 ran 7th 66/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Tequila Belle (IRE)T: A. Slattery Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden6f · Yielding · 14 ran 5th 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 4 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Leigh Roche's strike rate?: Leigh Roche has won 366 of 5,455 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Leigh Roche do best at?: Killarney by strike rate: 20 wins from 156 rides (12.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Leigh Roche ride most for?: M D O'Callaghan, with 636 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 61 (9.6%).
Is Leigh Roche in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Leigh Roche's Fair A/E?: 1.08, from 5,452 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.