Skip to content
Jockey profile

Mia Nicholls

308 rides in the last 5 seasons · 161 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Nov 2024 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2022→)
from 1 Jan 2022
28–308
Wins / Runs
9.1%
Strike rate
n=308
72 (23%)
Placed
1.03
Fair A/E
n=306 · 0.88 incl. margin
−78.33
£1 level stake
n=308 at SP · −25.4%
£329k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.3%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (35 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 308 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul Adrian Nicholls: 13.6% from 103 LTO winners: 17.1%
The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17.1% (n=35, Fair A/E 1.21), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.4% (n=45, Fair A/E 1.12). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 5.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −60.18 to a £1 stake over 161 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Adrian Nicholls supplies 33% of the rides and edges the rider's average (13.6% vs 9.1%, A/E 1.17) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well on Good going (15.1%, n=73) and at trips under 6f (14.5%, n=76). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 0% over 30 rides, 9.1pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Hurt You Never (IRE) — 5 wins from 27 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
5.6%−3.5
n=161 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −60.18
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
17.1%+8.0
n=35 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −4.77
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
8.1%−1.0
n=37 · A/E 2.03 · £1 +25.00
When favourite
37.5%
n=16 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −0.74
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8.4%−0.7
n=286 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −87.83
Big fields · 14+ runners
4.4%−4.7
n=45 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −5.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Soft going 0% vs 9.1% · n=30
On last-time-out winners 17.1% vs 9.1% · n=35
With Eve Johnson Houghton 16.3% vs 9.1% · n=43
On Good going 15.1% vs 9.1% · n=73
On Soft going 2.4% vs 9.1% · n=42
At trips under 6f 14.5% vs 9.1% · n=76
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 95 10 10.5% −0.29
Good 73 11 15.1% +37.58
Good to Firm 57 6 10.5% −37.12
Soft 42 1 2.4% −37.50
Good to Soft 30 0 0% −30.00
Heavy 11 0 0% −11.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 22 2 9.1% +17.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 19 1 5.3% −13.50
Ripon 17 1 5.9% −4.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 17 4 23.5% +0.71
Thirsk 17 1 5.9% −12.50
Southwell (AW) 16 2 12.5% +9.00
Newbury 13 3 23.1% +6.33
Nottingham 12 0 0% −12.00
Leicester 12 2 16.7% +10.73
Lingfield (AW) 12 0 0% −12.00
Bath 11 0 0% −11.00
Yarmouth 11 0 0% −11.00
York 10 0 0% −10.00
Windsor 10 1 10% −7.62
Doncaster 10 0 0% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 114 12 10.5% −40.19
Class 5 84 8 9.5% +1.48
Class 4 58 3 5.2% −40.12
Class 2 33 2 6.1% −22.50
Class 3 15 3 20% +27.00
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 21 6 28.6% 0.95 −5.74
2nd–3rd fav 61 11 18% 1.09 −12.09
4th–6th fav 80 7 8.8% 1.10 −7.50
7th+ in betting 146 4 2.7% 0.91 −53.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Hurt You Never (IRE) 27 5 11 25 Sep 24
Abate (GB) 24 4 10 24 Oct 24
Saaheq (GB) 16 2 6 5 Jun 24
Tees Spirit (GB) 14 3 5 25 Oct 24
Bascinet (GB) 13 3 6 20 Aug 24
Thornaby Pearl (GB) 6 0 2 5 Nov 24
Homer Stokes (GB) 6 2 2 25 Mar 24
Accidental Agent (GB) 5 0 0 4 Oct 24
Uncle Dick (GB) 5 2 3 8 Aug 24
Zillion (IRE) 4 0 1 11 Nov 24
Rotation (GB) 4 1 1 3 Oct 24
Copper And Five (GB) 4 0 0 17 Sep 24
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 161 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
2585716111349300
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardAdrian Nicholls
33% of all rides
13.6% SR · A/E 1.17
TrainerRWSR£1
Adrian Nicholls 103 14 13.6% +2.89
Eve Johnson Houghton 43 7 16.3% +5.58
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2022→
28
Archived wins
£329k
Prize money
2023
Best season · 18 wins
Tees Spirit (GB) — It's Never Ordinary At bet365 Handicap Newmarket · Apr 2024 · Class 3
£12,885
Flying Secret (GB) — Highclere Castle Gin Handicap Newbury · Jun 2023 · Class 3
£12,885
Tees Spirit (GB) — Davies Group Handicap Sandown · Jul 2024 · Class 2
£12,885
Notable horses
Hurt You Never (IRE) Abate (GB) Tees Spirit (GB) Bascinet (GB) Saaheq (GB) Homer Stokes (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dandy Man (IRE) 17.2% · 5–29
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,980 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Bated Breath (GB) 15.4% · 4–26
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,173 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 855.
Helmet (AUS) 17.6% · 3–17
Progeny have won 9.4% of 4,852 runs since 2016 (351 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 148.
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,863 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Swiss Spirit (GB) 20% · 3–15
Progeny have won 9.5% of 3,648 runs since 2017 (243 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.5% from 245. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.7% from 136.
Havana Gold (IRE) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,064 runs since 2017 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 118. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 308 · newest first

The latest 50 of 308 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 26 September 2022 to 11 November 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
11 Nov 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Zillion (IRE)T: Sue Gardner BetUK: It's Where The UK Bets HandicapClass 5 · 16.5f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 66/1
11 Nov 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Baynoona (IRE)T: Sue Gardner Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 66/1
05 Nov 24 Redcar Thornaby Pearl (GB)T: Adrian Nicholls Redcar Racecourse Supports RBL Poppy Appeal HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 6/1
31 Oct 24 Chelmsford City (AW) Liberty Mountain (GB)T: Barry Brennan Betfair Exchange Beacons Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 14/1
30 Oct 24 Nottingham Enchanted Night (GB)T: Christine Dunnett Come Racing 6th November HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 10/1
28 Oct 24 Leicester General Gordon (IRE)T: Adrian Nicholls Every Race Live On Racing TV NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Heavy · 9 ran 5th 18/1
25 Oct 24 Dundalk (AW) Tees Spirit (GB)T: Adrian Nicholls William Hill Top Price Guarantee Mercury Stakes (Group 3)5f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 28/1
24 Oct 24 Nottingham Thornaby Pearl (GB)T: Adrian Nicholls Nottingham Racecourse 2025 Fixtures On Sale HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 9/2
24 Oct 24 Nottingham Abate (GB)T: Adrian Nicholls Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 7/1
21 Oct 24 Bath Baynoona (IRE)T: Sue Gardner On Course Values Online DragonBet HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 150/1
14 Oct 24 Windsor Albus Anne (GB)T: Jimmy Fox Download The At The Races App HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Heavy · 11 ran 3rd 9/2
11 Oct 24 York Abate (GB)T: Adrian Nicholls Copper Knight - Winning Most Horse At York HandicapClass 3 · 5f · Soft · 17 ran 13th 28/1
08 Oct 24 Leicester Quick Away (GB)T: Kevin Frost Next Meeting At LeicesterRaces Tuesday 15th October HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Heavy · 14 ran 11th 66/1
05 Oct 24 Ascot Faustus (GB)T: Rachel Cook & John Bridger Berkshire Healthcare Charity HandicapClass 2 · 5f · Soft · 12 ran 9th 14/1
04 Oct 24 Ascot Accidental Agent (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Victoria Racing Club Classified Stakes (Str)Class 3 · 8f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 18/1
03 Oct 24 Chelmsford City (AW) Rotation (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Saint Francis Hospice NurseryClass 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 7th 33/1
01 Oct 24 Bath Gilbert (GB)T: Adam West Goughs Solicitors Real Estate Specialists Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 13f · Soft · 13 ran 5th 50/1
28 Sep 24 Ripon Abate (GB)T: Adrian Nicholls Race Reads Expert Betting Service HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 8th 8/1
25 Sep 24 Redcar Hurt You Never (IRE)T: Adrian Nicholls racingtv/freetrial HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 11 ran 11th 22/1
24 Sep 24 Beverley Tees Spirit (GB)T: Adrian Nicholls Eddie And Violet Smith Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)Class 2 · 5f · Good · 4 ran 1st 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mia Nicholls's strike rate?
Mia Nicholls has won 28 of 308 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Mia Nicholls ride most for?
Adrian Nicholls, with 103 rides since 2022 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (13.6%).
What is Mia Nicholls's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 306 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).