What is William Carson's strike rate?

William Carson has won 683 of 8,439 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does William Carson do best at?

Leicester by strike rate: 19 wins from 165 rides (11.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does William Carson ride most for?

Tony Carroll, with 848 rides since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 81 (9.6%).

Is William Carson in form?

In the last 14 days: 18 rides, 1 winner, a strike rate of 5.6%. That is in line with the baseline of 8.1% since 2008.

What is William Carson's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 8,391 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

William Carson

8,439 rides in the lifetime window · 2,961 individual horses

As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 3 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

683–8,439

Wins / Runs

8.1%

Strike rate

n=8,439

2,072 (25%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=8,391 · 0.81 incl. margin

−2,962.46

£1 level stake

n=8,439 at SP · −35.1%

£5.03m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.3%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 440 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (707 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 8,439 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Mar 36.1% when favourite Tony Carroll: 9.6% from 848 LTO winners: 17.3% Claiming: 11.4% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17.3% (n=707, Fair A/E 1.07), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.7% (n=1,075, Fair A/E 0.78). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 5.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.80 and −1,367.70 to a £1 stake over 2,944 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tony Carroll supplies 10% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.6%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (13.7%, n=651). 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the John Smith's Ayr Gold Cup Heritage Handicap at Ayr (Sep 2008, £93,465). The standout partner of the record: The Craftymaster (GB) — 9 wins from 28 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.1%−3.0

n=2,944 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −1,367.70

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

17.3%+9.2

n=707 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −80.86

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

4.7%−3.4

n=1,075 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −609.23

When favourite

36.1%

n=512 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +31.59

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.4%+3.3

n=683 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −114.06

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.4%−2.7

n=781 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −170.44

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.8%−0.3

n=77 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −28.80

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 17.3% vs 8.1% · n=707

With Giles Bravery 15.8% vs 8.1% · n=139

With debutants 2% vs 8.1% · n=445

Off a 0-7-day break 13.7% vs 8.1% · n=651

With Stuart Williams 13.6% vs 8.1% · n=499

With Malcolm Saunders 16.4% vs 8.1% · n=61

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 4,833 397 8.2% −1,843.63

Good to Firm 1,415 115 8.1% −511.97

Good 1,023 70 6.8% −226.08

Good to Soft 476 39 8.2% −106.62

Soft 437 30 6.9% −221.29

Firm 136 15 11% −47.83

Heavy 119 17 14.3% −5.04

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield 1,378 120 8.7% −498.82

Kempton 1,252 87 6.9% −504.45

Wolverhampton (AW) 1,248 103 8.3% −620.12

Brighton 553 63 11.4% −162.77

Chelmsford (AW) 479 38 7.9% −130.62

Southwell (AW) 453 47 10.4% −77.87

Windsor 382 23 6% −79.57

Bath 327 23 7% −163.32

Yarmouth 280 26 9.3% −5.66

Chepstow 254 22 8.7% −82.30

Lingfield 247 14 5.7% −152.40

Leicester 165 19 11.5% −37.84

Newmarket 144 14 9.7% +26.25

Salisbury 130 9 6.9% −71.12

Nottingham 125 9 7.2% +8.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 3,931 349 8.9% −1,358.21

Class 5 2,748 210 7.6% −1,027.03

Class 4 1,038 64 6.2% −525.45

Class 3 282 19 6.7% −48.62

Class 2 262 23 8.8% +37.15

Class 7 98 12 12.2% −8.50

Class 1 76 6 7.9% −27.80

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 638 211 33.1% 1.18 +14.77

2nd–3rd fav 1,394 217 15.6% 0.98 −232.73

4th–6th fav 2,687 176 6.6% 0.85 −838.50

7th+ in betting 3,720 79 2.1% 0.69 −1,906.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 3,433 273 8% −1,241.56

1m – 1m1f 1,685 122 7.2% −685.02

1m2f – 1m4f 1,572 112 7.1% −717.59

Under 6f 1,312 134 10.2% −170.35

1m5f – 2m 415 40 9.6% −142.44

2m1f – 2m4f 22 2 9.1% −5.50

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 184 14 7.6% −85.63

2009 322 38 11.8% −110.66

2010 507 51 10.1% −73.97

2011 536 64 11.9% −89.04

2012 752 64 8.5% −293.39

2013 738 54 7.3% −328.69

2014 605 51 8.4% −232.30

2015 545 45 8.3% −239.58

2016 669 46 6.9% −283.47

2017 372 35 9.4% −70.01

2018 368 20 5.4% −208.19

2019 56 6 10.7% +64.75

2020 317 26 8.2% −107.17

2021 408 20 4.9% −74.21

2022 366 24 6.6% −52.75

2023 469 28 6% −267.96

2024 437 30 6.9% −245.74

2025 393 38 9.7% −123.56

2026 395 29 7.3% −140.89

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 6,266 558 8.9% −1,811.86

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 3,244 279 8.6% −822.04

11-13 runners 2,697 168 6.2% −1,278.21

5-7 runners 1,599 163 10.2% −682.36

14-16 runners 638 35 5.5% −94.89

17+ runners 143 7 4.9% −75.55

2-4 runners 118 31 26.3% −9.41

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Shifting Star (IRE) 65 8 26 23 Mar 18

Pharoh Jake (GB) 43 3 11 23 Mar 18

Welsh Inlet (IRE) 43 4 10 24 Oct 17

Nordic Glory (IRE) 36 7 15 15 Mar 25

Peace Seeker (GB) 36 8 20 18 Jun 15

Fairy Mist (IRE) 34 5 14 30 Dec 17

Live Dangerously (GB) 33 5 11 25 Jul 18

Coolagh Magic (GB) 31 3 9 2 Sep 26

Choral Festival (GB) 31 4 12 18 Oct 16

Spiritual Star (IRE) 31 2 6 19 May 16

City Cyclone (GB) 30 7 16 26 Oct 26

Subtle Knife (GB) 30 4 11 9 May 16

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 2,961 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 16 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

1 from 18 5.6% · −2.5pts vs baseline

Last 14 days5.6%

Lifetime base8.1%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

101096688886810

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardTony Carroll

10% of all rides
9.6% SR · A/E 1.05

TrainerRWSR£1

Tony Carroll 848 81 9.6% −235.74

Anthony Carson 617 57 9.2% −174.08

John Bridger 595 47 7.9% −32.92

Michael Attwater 508 29 5.7% −211.71

Stuart Williams 499 68 13.6% −97.61

Peter Hiatt 271 25 9.2% −53.25

Jamie Osborne 260 33 12.7% −54.89

Charlie Wallis 208 21 10.1% −24.54

Brett Johnson 199 18 9% −71.82

Giles Bravery 139 22 15.8% −2.55

Charles Hills 137 13 9.5% −49.28

Bill Turner 131 7 5.3% −79.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

697

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£5.11m

Prize money

2012

Best season · 64 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Regal Parade (GB) — John Smith's Ayr Gold Cup Heritage Handicap Ayr · Sep 2008 · Class 2

£93,465

Best Solution (IRE) — Dubai 100 Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Newmarket · Oct 2016 · Group 3

£45,368

Lucky Beggar (IRE) — Adnams Broadside Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2013 · Class 2

£32,345

Notable horses

The Craftymaster (GB) Shifting Star (IRE) Peace Seeker (GB) Nordic Glory (IRE) City Cyclone (GB) Very Well Red (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 9.4% · 17–180

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,604 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Acclamation (GB) 5.8% · 8–137

Progeny have won 10% of 19,716 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Kyllachy (GB) 10% · 12–120

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Royal Applause (GB) 6.8% · 8–117

Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.

Pivotal (GB) 14.3% · 16–112

Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,790 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.

Oasis Dream (GB) 13.9% · 15–108

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,048 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 485. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,687 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,687 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 August 2005 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Up The Anti (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 18/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Infantry Officer (GB)T: Tony Carroll Midnite Building The Future Of Betting Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 66/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Absolute Diamond (IRE)T: David Evans AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 80/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Far Far Out (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Midnite Built Different Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 20/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Special Breeze (GB)T: Adam Kirby racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 14th 33/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Massa Go Go (GB)T: John O'Shea AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 300/1

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Katana (FR)T: Robert Stephens Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 250/1

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Fancied Angel (GB)T: Adam Kirby AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 13/2

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Crimson Road (IRE)T: John & Rhys Flint Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 11/1

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Kondratiev Wave (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Arc All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 66/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket City Of God (IRE)T: Michael Attwater German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 13th 80/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Emporess (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Mj Church Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Soft · 15 ran 15th 20/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Up The Anti (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Bristol Motor Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5.5f · Soft · 16 ran 2nd 17/2

29 Oct 26 Bath Mumayaz (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Oakenson Ltd Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5.5f · Soft · 12 ran 10th 25/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Havana Mojito (GB)T: John Gallagher Disability Inc Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Soft · 14 ran 12th 22/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Q T Boy (GB)T: David Evans Bath Luxury Toilet Hire Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Soft · 7 ran 2nd 10/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Q T Pie (GB)T: Tom Dascombe Set Your Limits With Unibet Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 4th 80/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Far Far Out (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 2nd 40/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) The Bear Of Saints (FR)T: John O'Shea Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 12/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Macs Dilemma (IRE)T: John O'Shea Saisons D'Or 100th Race Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 8 runs (won 0) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is William Carson's strike rate?: William Carson has won 683 of 8,439 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does William Carson do best at?: Leicester by strike rate: 19 wins from 165 rides (11.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does William Carson ride most for?: Tony Carroll, with 848 rides since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 81 (9.6%).
Is William Carson in form?: In the last 14 days: 18 rides, 1 winner, a strike rate of 5.6%. That is in line with the baseline of 8.1% since 2008.
What is William Carson's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 8,391 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.