3:40 Gowran Park
A 19-runner Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div I) over 1m75y at Gowran Park on yielding to soft ground. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Miss Abby Jools heading the ratings on 49, closely followed by Spanish Princess on 47 and a trio of horses on 46. With no obvious leader in a field where almost every runner is held up, the race looks set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which positioning and timing will be critical.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any confirmed front-runner, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy to a slow pace is likely to pay. The vast majority of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race should develop into a test of when to commit and how much to leave in the tank. The key question is whether the leaders can get away with a soft enough time in front or whether the bunching in behind will see several runners short of room when the sprint begins.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Miss Abby Jools KTB Selection49/100
Miss Abby Jools tops the KTB Fit ratings on 49 and is the selection. A 7-year-old with an official rating of 55, she has shown placed form at this course, finishing second, eighth and fifth in three runs here. Her recent form reads 84200- and she is usually held up, producing her effort late. The trainer has a 4% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.49 from 427 runs, while the claiming jockey has no record at the track. She is unproven on yielding to soft ground, which adds an element of risk, yet her course placings and solid KTB rating mark her out as the one to beat in a race where late closers should be well suited to the expected shape.
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2Spanish Princess47/100
Spanish Princess is rated just behind on a KTB Fit of 47. Rated 55 officially, this 5-year-old has recent form of 580-60 and is a held-up performer who usually produces her effort late. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.69 from 304 runs, while the jockey has an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.63 from 40 rides. She has been competitive on yielding to soft ground without winning, placing once from two starts, but could only finish sixth on her sole previous visit to this track. Her ability to handle the ground gives her a solid chance if she can overcome the wide draw of 17 in what is likely to be a steadily-run race.
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3Zephron46/100
Zephron carries an official rating of 40 and is rated 46 on KTB Fit. A 9-year-old with recent form of 070009, he is a held-up type who produces his effort late. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.41 from 53 runs. He has shown ability on yielding to soft ground, winning once and placing once from four starts, and has course placings to his name from five runs here, including a third. While his recent form is modest, his proven ability on the ground and at the track could see him involved if the race develops into the tactical test the pace shape suggests.
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4Kingcharles46/100
Kingcharles is a 3-year-old rated 47 officially and 46 on KTB Fit. His recent form reads 880807 and he is usually held up, producing his effort late. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.33 from 61 runs, though the claiming jockey has a 0% strike rate here with an A/E of 0 from 10 rides. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has shown little in two previous runs at the course, finishing 12th and eighth. His youth offers some scope, but he will need to improve markedly on recent efforts to figure in a race where being handy is expected to pay.
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5Tempted Angel46/100
Tempted Angel completes the principals on a KTB Fit of 46. This 3-year-old is rated 51 officially with recent form of 50680 and is a held-up performer who usually produces her effort late. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.85 from 70 runs. She is unproven on yielding to soft ground and could only finish 15th on her sole previous start here. While she has scope as a lightly-raced three-year-old, her poor course run and lack of experience on the ground mean she will need to find improvement to play a major part in what looks a steadily-run affair.
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6Medieval Night45/100
Medieval Night is rated 45 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 55. A 4-year-old with recent form of 762536, he is a held-up type who usually produces his effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has a 0% strike rate from 28 runs with an A/E of 0.00. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground but has placed form at the course from four runs here.
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7Survivor's Code45/100
Survivor's Code is rated 45 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 43. This 3-year-old has recent form of 779905 and is a held-up performer who usually produces his effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has a 12% strike rate from 33 runs with an A/E of 1.40. He has won at the course from four starts and has one run on yielding to soft ground.
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8Real Petite44/100
Real Petite is rated 44 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 44. A 4-year-old with recent form of 160864, she is a held-up type who usually produces her effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has a 29% strike rate from seven runs. She has won at the course from five starts and has been competitive on yielding to soft ground, placing once from three starts.
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9Lady Crossing44/100
Lady Crossing is rated 44 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 40. This 4-year-old has recent form of -80400 and is a held-up performer who usually produces her effort late. She goes in first-time headgear. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.45 from 45 runs. She is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has shown little in two previous runs at the course.
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10Banshof43/100
Banshof is rated 43 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 54. A 4-year-old with recent form of 800086, he is a held-up type who usually produces his effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has a 7% strike rate from 154 runs with an A/E of 1.05. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has no course form on record.
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11Strikepoint43/100
Strikepoint is rated 43 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 48. This 3-year-old has recent form of 7090 and is a held-up performer who usually produces his effort late. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.06 from 103 runs. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has no course form on record.
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12Simpson's Paradox42/100
Simpson's Paradox is rated 42 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 42. A 6-year-old with recent form of 6-7083, he is a held-up type who usually produces his effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has a 5% strike rate from 20 runs with an A/E of 0.81. He has one run on yielding to soft ground and has placed form at the course from three starts here.
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13Sands Castle41/100
Sands Castle is rated 41 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 56. This 3-year-old has recent form of 450200 and is a held-up performer who usually produces his effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has a 0% strike rate from 33 runs with an A/E of 0.00. He has one run on yielding to soft ground and has placed form at the course from three starts here.
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14Kings Gesture39/100
Kings Gesture is rated 39 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 45. A 5-year-old with recent form of -80000, he is a held-up type who usually produces his effort late. The trainer has no record at Gowran Park from five runs overall. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has no course form on record.
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15Esticky End36/100
Esticky End is rated 36 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 47. An 8-year-old with recent form of /5R96-, he is a held-up performer who usually produces his effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has a 2% strike rate from 51 runs with an A/E of 0.66. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Gowran Park from 30 runs and the horse has shown little in four previous starts here.
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16Captain Ciano35/100
Captain Ciano is rated 35 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 42. A 4-year-old with recent form of 098000, he is a held-up type who usually produces his effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has a 7% strike rate from 594 runs with an A/E of 0.88. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground but has placed form at the course, finishing second from two starts here.
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17Arizona Star35/100
Arizona Star is rated 35 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 40. This 3-year-old has recent form of 638502 and is a held-up performer who usually produces her effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has a 19% strike rate from 21 runs with an A/E of 1.89. She has one run on yielding to soft ground and has no course form on record.
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18Kayamite34/100
Kayamite is rated 34 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 40. A 4-year-old with recent form of 7-0803, she is a held-up type who usually produces her effort late. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Gowran Park from 10 runs. She is unproven on yielding to soft ground and could only finish 14th on her sole previous start here.
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19Cannonball Queen34/100
Cannonball Queen is rated 34 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 43. This 4-year-old has recent form of 000467 and is a held-up performer who usually produces her effort late. The trainer-jockey combination has an 8% strike rate from 26 runs with an A/E of 1.42. She has one run on yielding to soft ground and has shown little in two previous starts at the course.
KTB verdict
Miss Abby Jools is the KTB Selection. She tops the Fit ratings, has placed form at Gowran Park and her held-up style should be well suited to a steadily-run race where being on the back of the pace looks advantageous. Her ability to produce a late effort gives her a strong chance if she handles the yielding to soft ground. The main dangers are Spanish Princess, who has shown she can act on the ground, Zephron with his course placings and proven ability on softish ground, and the younger horses Kingcharles and Tempted Angel if they can improve on recent modest form.
KTB Selection Miss Abby Jools
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Miss Abby Jools | 22/1 | BetTom |
| Spanish Princess | 28/1 | BetTom |
| Zephron | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Kingcharles | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Tempted Angel | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Medieval Night | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Survivor's Code | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Real Petite | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Lady Crossing | 50/1 | BoyleSports |
| Banshof | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Strikepoint | 8/1 | Bet Victor |
| Simpson's Paradox | 25/1 | Bet Victor |
| Sands Castle | 16/1 | Bet Victor |
| Kings Gesture | 80/1 | Bet Victor |
| Esticky End | 16/1 | Bet Victor |
| Captain Ciano | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Arizona Star | 3/1 | Bet Victor |
| Kayamite | 11/1 | Bet Victor |
| Cannonball Queen | 11/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Gowran Park racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Miss Abby Jools the selection despite being unproven on yielding to soft ground?
She tops the KTB Fit ratings on 49, has placed form at Gowran Park from three starts and her held-up run style is well suited to the steadily-run, tactical pace shape.
How will the race shape unfold given the lack of a leader?
It is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, as almost every runner including all the principals is held up and produces their effort late.
Which horses have proven form on yielding to soft ground?
Spanish Princess has placed once from two starts on the ground, Zephron has a win and a place from four starts, Real Petite has placed once from three starts, while Survivor's Code, Simpson's Paradox, Sands Castle, Arizona Star, Cannonball Queen and Lady Crossing have had one run each without placing.
Which trainers have the strongest records at Gowran Park according to the A/E figures?
William J Fitzpatrick has an A/E of 1.45, A. McCann has an A/E of 1.41, Kevin Thomas Coleman has an A/E of 1.33, Conor David Maxwell has an A/E of 1.00 and John James Feane has an A/E of 1.06.
Which horses have winning form at Gowran Park?
Survivor's Code has won here from four starts and Real Petite has won here from five starts.
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