4:02 Navan
The 4:02 at Navan is a 2m5f maiden hurdle on good ground that features an 18-runner field of largely unexposed or modest performers. KTB's Fit ratings point to a race with modest overall depth, headed by Lengaruka on 69, with a clear drop to the remainder of the field. The KTB numbers suggest a contest that will be decided more by which horse handles the step up in trip and the prevailing ground best rather than overwhelming class.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner. Spill A Drop is the one horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, though that assessment carries low confidence. Most of the field, including the top two in the KTB rankings, are expected to settle in mid-division or be held up, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of stamina from the second half of the contest. The key question is whether the tentative pace allows hold-up types enough time to deliver their efforts or whether it plays into the hands of anything that can get into a rhythm up front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lengaruka KTB Selection69/100
Lengaruka is the clear top pick on KTB ratings with a Fit score of 69. The 5-year-old has shown steady progression in three starts, recording form figures of 053, and is expected to settle in midfield. Mrs Lorna Fowler has a 15% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.67, while jockey John Shinnick boasts a 21% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 3.23 from 24 rides. The horse has been competitive on good ground without winning, placing once from three starts, and the market read suggests it will be prominent in a field of 18. This looks the right time to strike in a maiden that lacks depth.
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2Who's Going61/100
Who's Going is rated second on KTB Fit with a mark of 61. The 4-year-old has form figures of 080-4 and is expected to be held up, producing its effort late. Gordon Elliott has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.9, and Jack Kennedy is a strong booking with a 23% strike rate at the venue and an A/E of 0.94. The horse is completely unproven on good ground, which adds an element of risk, and it has no previous course form. Still, the combination of yard and jockey keeps it firmly in the picture as the main danger.
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3Morale Boost58/100
Morale Boost carries a KTB Fit score of 58. The 8-year-old has recent form figures of /25-P9 and is likely to race in mid-division. Trainer Gary McGill holds a 14% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 2.49, while Conor Stone-Walsh has a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.02. Like several others, this one is unproven on good ground. With no course form to call upon, it will need to improve on recent efforts to feature.
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4I Can Find Em53/100
I Can Find Em is next in on KTB Fit at 53. The 5-year-old has form figures of 422-0 and is expected to be held up, though that read is based on limited evidence. Gary McGill again trains, this time with his son Mr D McGill claiming 7lb, but the jockey has a 0% strike rate at Navan from four rides. The horse has one run on good ground without placing and has no course form. It showed ability in bumpers but needs to bounce back from a poor latest effort.
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5Staton52/100
Staton has a KTB Fit score of 52. The 5-year-old brings form figures of 534-0 and is likely to race in mid-division. Trainer Paul Traynor has a modest 4% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.87, but jockey Philip Byrnes is well worth noting with a 21% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 1.5. The horse has one run on good ground without placing and has no course form. It showed some promise earlier but needs to improve on its most recent display.
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6Pamelaisbrass51/100
Pamelaisbrass has a KTB Fit of 51 and recent form of -06636. The 5-year-old is expected to be held up and has three runs on good without placing. Trainer John G Carr has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.61, while claiming jockey Eoghan Finegan has a 13% strike rate at the track.
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7Emerald Enigma51/100
Emerald Enigma is rated 51 on KTB Fit despite form of 1-13. The 6-year-old is trained by W. P. Mullins, who has a 23% strike rate at Navan, and ridden by Paul Townend. It has placed once from one run on good but is unproven over this trip and has no course form.
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8Master Sydney50/100
Master Sydney carries a KTB Fit of 50 with form of 321-43. The 5-year-old is held up with high confidence, has a win from nine runs on good and has course experience, having finished 21st here. Trainer Paul W Flynn has a 6% strike rate at Navan.
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9Woodie Wiley49/100
Woodie Wiley is rated 49 on KTB Fit with form of P/PS70. The 5-year-old is expected to race in mid-division, has two runs on good without placing and no course form. Trainer Conor Houlihan has an overall 0% record from four runs at Navan.
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10Spill A Drop47/100
Spill A Drop has a KTB Fit of 47 and form of F1-4P6. The 6-year-old is the most likely front-runner, though that read is based on limited evidence. Trainer R K Watson has a 0% strike rate at Navan.
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11Mossy Way46/100
Mossy Way is rated 46 on KTB Fit with form of 14743-. The 6-year-old is held up, has placed once from one run on good and has no course form. Trainer Edward Buckley has a 0% strike rate at Navan.
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12Game Theatre44/100
Game Theatre has a KTB Fit of 44 and form of 414-. The 5-year-old is held up with low confidence, is unproven on good and has no course form. It is trained by Henry de Bromhead.
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13Prophetess Miriam42/100
Prophetess Miriam is rated 42 on KTB Fit with form of 24-899. The 6-year-old is held up with low confidence, is unproven on good and has no course form. Trainer Cian Collins has a 0% strike rate at Navan.
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14Airds Moss41/100
Airds Moss has a KTB Fit of 41 and form of /32-14. The 5-year-old is held up, has placed once from one run on good and has no course form. Trainer David Harry Kelly has a 2% strike rate at Navan.
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15C Pas Possible40/100
C Pas Possible is rated 40 on KTB Fit with form of 539. The 5-year-old is held up with low confidence, has one run on good without placing and has no course form. Trainer Andrew Kinirons has a 0% strike rate at Navan.
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16Kalico Leader38/100
Kalico Leader carries a KTB Fit of 38 with form of F4-25. The 7-year-old is held up with low confidence, has one run on good without placing and has no course form. Trainer Edward Buckley has a 0% strike rate at Navan.
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17Cap Bernat38/100
Cap Bernat is rated 38 on KTB Fit despite being a 13-year-old with form of 2/05-4. It is held up, has placed once from four runs on good and has no course form.
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18Pacy Macie36/100
Pacy Macie has the lowest KTB Fit of 36 with form of 2P-365. The 5-year-old is held up, has placed once from three runs on good and has no course form. Trainer Barry John Walsh has a 0% strike rate at Navan.
KTB verdict
Lengaruka stands out as the KTB Selection. The 5-year-old has shown the most consistent profile of the principals, has the highest Fit rating, and benefits from a trainer and jockey with strong Navan records. It has already proved it can be competitive on good ground and the race looks to lack anything of overwhelming ability. The main dangers are Who's Going, who brings the powerful Elliott and Kennedy combination, and Morale Boost, who could improve for the step up in trip if the tentative pace allows hold-up types to close in late.
KTB Selection Lengaruka
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:24 UTC, 19 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lengaruka | 18/1 | BetMGM |
| Who's Going | 12/1 | BetMGM |
| Morale Boost | 80/1 | Bet365 |
| I Can Find Em | 66/1 | Bet365 |
| Staton | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Pamelaisbrass | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Emerald Enigma | 13/8 | Dragon Bet |
| Master Sydney | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Woodie Wiley | 80/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Spill A Drop | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Mossy Way | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Game Theatre | 6/1 | BetMGM |
| Prophetess Miriam | 66/1 | Bet365 |
| Airds Moss | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| C Pas Possible | 20/1 | BetMGM |
| Kalico Leader | 33/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Cap Bernat | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Pacy Macie | 40/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:02 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer and jockey combination at Navan?
Lengaruka, with trainer Mrs Lorna Fowler recording a 15% strike rate and A/E 1.67 at the track, and jockey John Shinnick posting 21% and A/E 3.23.
How many horses in the field are completely unproven on good ground?
Four horses are unproven on good: Who's Going, Morale Boost, Game Theatre and Prophetess Miriam.
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Spill A Drop is noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace, though that assessment is based on limited evidence.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Navan among those riding in this race?
John Shinnick has a 21% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 3.23 from 24 rides.
Does any horse have previous course form at Navan?
Only Master Sydney has run at the track before, finishing 21st on its sole visit.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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