7:30 Kempton (AW)
This Class 5 Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap over 6f at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a field of 12 where the KTB Fit ratings identify a tight group at the top. Liosa heads the numbers on 66 with a course record of two wins from six runs, while Caragio, Serenity Dream, Modern Times and Buccabay follow closely on 63 to 58. The race qualifies for the London Sprint Series and the overall KTB assessment points to a contest where course form, an ability to handle the surface and recent competitiveness at the level will be key.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present and the pace shape carrying high confidence. Initial Blue is likely to take them along from the front while Elvetham and several prominent racers including Serenity Dream, Buccabay, Hundred Caps and Receipt should be close up early. This setup raises the strong possibility of the pace collapsing in the later stages, which would play to the strengths of hold-up performers such as Liosa, Modern Times and Independent Expert.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Liosa KTB Selection66/100
Liosa is the KTB selection. This modest performer has won twice at Kempton from six runs and also possesses a solid record on standard to slow ground with two wins and four places from five starts. She has won at today's trip and her recent form of 613504 shows she can still be competitive at this level. The trainer has an 11 percent strike rate at Kempton from nine runs while the jockey is unproven at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is well placed to benefit if the strong pace collapses in the straight.
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2Caragio63/100
Caragio is a fair performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has a win on standard to slow ground. He drops back to 6f today having last run over 7f yet boasts a solid record at the trip itself. The trainer posts a 17% strike rate at Kempton from 12 runs while the 5lb claimer adds value. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well positioned to pick up the pieces if the leaders go too hard in a race with a strong pace likely.
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3Serenity Dream60/100
Serenity Dream is a fair sort who has been in solid form of late with three wins from her last six starts. She has won twice from seven runs at Kempton and also boasts a respectable record on standard to slow going with two wins and six places from eight attempts. The yard's modest 8% strike rate here from a huge sample is a slight negative. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, she is likely to be prominent early in what is expected to be a strongly run affair.
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4Modern Times59/100
Modern Times is a fair performer who has been in decent form this year with two wins from his last six runs. He has already shown his liking for this track when finishing second here on his only visit and has won three times at today's trip from ten attempts. The yard holds a solid 16% strike-rate at Kempton from 122 runs while Luke Morris has been aboard for both recent victories. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is another who could be suited if the pace collapses late on.
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5Buccabay58/100
Buccabay is a modest performer with a solid record at this track, including a win from seven runs, and he has also won on standard to slow ground as well as at today's trip. His recent form has been patchy though, with a string of placed efforts mixed in with some lesser runs, and he now tries headgear for the first time. The yard's modest strike rate at Kempton is another factor to weigh up. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he will be in the thick of the early action in a race with a strong pace anticipated.
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6Hundred Caps58/100
Hundred Caps is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while, placing on his only previous visit to this track and showing he handles standard to slow going. He has won over today's trip in the past though his recent form suggests he is vulnerable to sharper types at this level. Trainer Julie Camacho has a solid 18% strike rate at Kempton from 67 runs. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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7Initial Blue56/100
Initial Blue is a modest performer who has won three times from six starts at this track and also has a solid record on standard to slow ground with three wins from six runs. He has won five times from 17 starts at this trip and arrives in decent form having won two of his last three races. The trainer's small sample at Kempton makes his record here hard to weigh up. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be to the fore early in a strongly run race.
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8Royal Accord51/100
Royal Accord is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when winning a similar race at Lingfield last time. He has a solid record at today's trip but is unproven on standard to slow ground and makes his first visit to Kempton. Trainer's modest strike rate here adds a note of caution. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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9Marlborough Place46/100
Marlborough Place is a modest performer who has won once in six starts but has looked limited on his last three outings. Dropping back to 6f is a fresh question having been placed at the trip earlier in his career. Trainer's 1% strike rate from 84 runs at Kempton offers little encouragement and the yard's only previous runner here finished fourth. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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10Elvetham44/100
Elvetham is a modest performer who has won once from two starts over this course and distance. Steps back up to 6f today after his latest run over 5f, a trip at which he has won three times from 13 attempts. Trainer Conrad Allen has a 10% strike rate from 192 runs at Kempton while Cieren Fallon is aboard. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be involved in the early battle.
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11Receipt44/100
Receipt is a modest performer who has shown little at this track in three runs and remains winless on standard to slow ground. Drops back to an untried 6f today after a string of ordinary efforts, which asks a fresh question. Trainer has only a small sample here so far. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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12Independent Expert37/100
Independent Expert is a modest performer who has been on the go for a long time and showed little spark in recent runs. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at this track adds little confidence and the horse is unproven on standard to slow ground while stepping up from 5f to 6f. First run at Kempton after 50 starts elsewhere. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
KTB verdict
Liosa is the KTB selection. A modest performer with two course wins from six starts and a strong record on standard to slow ground, she arrives with competitive recent form and is ideally suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold. Her hold-up style should allow her to come with a late run if the front-runners pay for their exertions. The main dangers are Caragio, who drops back to his optimum trip with a good trainer-jockey combination, Serenity Dream who brings solid recent form and course wins, and Modern Times who has shown his liking for the track and is another who can benefit from a strong pace.
KTB Selection Liosa
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 21 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Liosa | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Caragio | 9/2 | William Hill |
| Serenity Dream | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Modern Times | 13/2 | William Hill |
| Buccabay | 15/2 | Bet Victor |
| Hundred Caps | 6/1 | William Hill |
| Initial Blue | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Royal Accord | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Marlborough Place | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Elvetham | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Receipt | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Independent Expert | 40/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses?
Liosa is usually held up and produces her effort late while Modern Times is also held up; both should be favoured by the strong pace shape.
How many course wins does Initial Blue bring into the race?
Initial Blue has won three times from six starts at Kempton.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Kempton for the yard of Serenity Dream?
Tony Carroll has an 8% strike rate at Kempton from 1923 runs.
Which runners are likely to contest the lead early?
Initial Blue tends to make the running while Elvetham also tends to race on the pace; Serenity Dream, Buccabay, Hundred Caps and Receipt are prominent runners likely to be close up.
Has Buccabay worn headgear before?
Buccabay now tries first-time headgear.
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