Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 80 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.87).
Deterministic profile computed from 1,581 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 4.3%12.1% when favouriteMiss M O'Sullivan: 8.7% from 173New recruits: 5.5%Claiming riders: 4.5%Sends off the favourite in 2% of races
The read
It is weakest at Punchestown (0% over 51 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 1.2% (n=86, Fair A/E 0.33). The market has consistently overbetdebutants: 1.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.49 and −159.00 to a £1 stake over 200 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Miss M O'Sullivan rides 11% of the entries and edges the yard's average (8.7% vs 4.2%, A/E 1.29) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase at Limerick (Dec 2007, £29,295). The stable star of the record: A Decent Excuse (IRE) — 6 wins from 63 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.3%+0.1
n=328 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −156.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.5%+1.3
n=55 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −20.00
Debutants · first career start
1.5%−2.7
n=200 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −159.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
1.2%−3.0
n=86 · A/E 0.33 · £1 −77.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
3%−1.2
n=66 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −54.00
When favourite
12.1%
n=33 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −22.07
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.5%+0.3
n=984 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −578.51
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
11.1%+6.9
n=18 · A/E 1.79 · £1 +5.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Miss M O'Sullivan8.7% vs 4.2% · n=173
With Alan Crowe9.4% vs 4.2% · n=32
With Martin Ferris0% vs 4.2% · n=71
With C&D winners8.7% vs 4.2% · n=46
With Phillip Enright0% vs 4.2% · n=54
At Punchestown0% vs 4.2% · n=51
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle841273.2%−626.69
Chase430296.7%−113.72
Flat19573.6%−96.00
NH Flat11532.6%−92.50
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft482234.8%−272.17
Good432112.5%−326.05
Heavy366154.1%−273.52
Good to Soft17095.3%−22.17
Good to Firm9155.5%−27.50
Standard (AW)3126.5%−11.50
Firm9111.1%+4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork318144.4%−203.00
Limerick21083.8%−160.00
Killarney16074.4%−61.38
Listowel13064.6%−64.17
Clonmel8722.3%−74.67
Thurles8644.7%−63.57
Tramore7545.3%−44.50
Tipperary5747%−25.50
Punchestown5100%−51.00
Fairyhouse5135.9%−32.62
Galway4500%−45.00
Ballinrobe4312.3%−22.00
Gowran Park3800%−38.00
Dundalk2926.9%−9.50
Kilbeggan2500%−25.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 120210%+3.50
Class 21317.7%+54.00
Class 49222.2%+18.50
Class 38112.5%−4.00
Class 5400%−4.00
Class 6200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite41614.6%0.70−19.24
2nd–3rd fav1673319.8%1.51+25.33
4th–6th fav325144.3%0.71−166.50
7th+ in betting1,048131.2%0.51−768.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f539264.8%−263.84
2m5f – 3m430266%−218.67
1m5f – 2m40861.5%−361.40
1m2f – 1m4f7034.3%−57.00
Over 3m6035%+22.00
1m – 1m1f4524.4%−21.00
6f – 7f2500%−25.00
Under 6f400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200811921.7%−91.00
200911821.7%−90.50
20107822.6%−58.50
20116811.5%−63.00
20126046.7%−39.90
20139355.4%−54.50
20147057.1%−35.00
20158866.8%−23.00
20166100%−61.00
20179544.2%−62.50
20186434.7%−40.00
20197334.1%−60.88
20206223.2%+20.00
202114674.8%−27.50
2022121119.1%−53.84
20238233.7%−63.62
20245323.8%−32.50
20257833.8%−44.17
20265211.9%−47.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps612376%−245.79
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners538224.1%−313.51
17+ runners42961.4%−332.40
11-13 runners332133.9%−212.62
8-10 runners202188.9%−27.00
5-7 runners7445.4%−52.38
2-4 runners6350%+9.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 271 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from M Halford (3) and Tom Lacey (2); 47 had their first archived run for this yard.
15 have since run for another yard; 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
244544264458
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
84
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£1.12m
Prize money
2022
Best season · 11 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Time To Sell (IRE) — Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase (0-140) Limerick · Dec 2007 · Grade C
£29,295
It Came To Pass (IRE) — St. James's Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · Mar 2020 · Class 2
£26,685
Head Waiter (IRE) — Kerryman Long Distance Handicap Hurdle (0-140) Killarney · Jul 2007
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,876 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Fruits Of Love (USA)8.5% · 6–71
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,777 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.8% from 944. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 182. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 4% from 150.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,181 runs since 2011 (291 horses).
Flemensfirth (USA)5.9% · 2–34
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,839 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,839 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 5 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Eugene M O'Sullivan's strike rate?
Eugene M O'Sullivan has won 66 of 1,581 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Eugene M O'Sullivan do best at?
Tipperary by strike rate: 4 wins from 57 runners (7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Eugene M O'Sullivan?
Miss M O'Sullivan, with 173 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (8.7%).
Is Eugene M O'Sullivan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Eugene M O'Sullivan's Fair A/E?
0.87, from 1,581 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Eugene M O'Sullivan·SR 4.2%·A/E 0.87
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