from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
5–182
Wins / Runs
2.7%
Strike rate
n=182
14 (8%)
Placed
0.72
Fair A/E
n=181 · 0.62 incl. margin
−122.75
£1 level stake
n=182 at SP · −67.4%
£28,634
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sent out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.72).
Deterministic profile computed from 182 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 23 Aug 2026
The read
The record is strongest at Plumpton (6.5%, n=31), clear of the yard's 2.7% baseline. The yard also read well in Chase races (7.1%, n=42). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.00 across 65 runners (0% strike, −65.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.8%−0.9
n=56 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −49.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.7
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.7
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.7
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.7
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−2.7
n=52 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −52.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Chase races7.1% vs 2.7% · n=42
At Plumpton6.5% vs 2.7% · n=31
In Flat races0% vs 2.7% · n=65
With claiming riders up0% vs 2.7% · n=52
In Class 60% vs 2.7% · n=50
On Standard (AW) going0% vs 2.7% · n=43
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat6500%−65.00
Hurdle5723.5%−17.00
Chase4237.1%−22.75
NH Flat1800%−18.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good4924.1%−9.00
Standard (AW)4300%−43.00
Good to Firm4112.4%−34.00
Soft1915.3%−15.25
Good to Soft1715.9%−8.50
Heavy1000%−10.00
Firm300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Fontwell4924.1%−33.50
Plumpton3126.5%−10.25
Lingfield (AW)2500%−25.00
Kempton (AW)1200%−12.00
Lingfield1100%−11.00
Folkestone1100%−11.00
Towcester7114.3%+16.00
Southwell (AW)600%−6.00
Brighton600%−6.00
Huntingdon500%−5.00
Windsor400%−4.00
Yarmouth300%−3.00
Sandown200%−2.00
Kempton200%−2.00
Worcester100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 56423.1%−48.50
Class 46334.8%−19.25
Class 65000%−50.00
Class 7400%−4.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav1317.7%0.48−9.25
4th–6th fav4624.3%0.83−30.50
7th+ in betting12321.6%0.82−83.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f5123.9%−38.75
1m5f – 2m4624.3%−6.00
6f – 7f2300%−23.00
1m2f – 1m4f2200%−22.00
2m5f – 3m1815.6%−11.00
Over 3m1600%−16.00
Under 6f500%−5.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20084337%+0.75
20093900%−39.00
20102300%−23.00
20112200%−22.00
20121715.9%−8.50
20132314.3%−16.00
20141400%−14.00
2015100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9455.3%−34.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners6035%−27.50
11-13 runners5600%−56.00
5-7 runners3512.9%−31.25
14-16 runners2100%−21.00
2-4 runners600%−6.00
17+ runners4125%+19.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
068040080600
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
8
Archived wins
£56,539
Prize money
2008
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
High Point (IRE) — Kempton For Conferences Handicap Kempton (AW) · Nov 2006 · Class 4
£5,505
Carly Bay (GB) — Bright 106.4 Handicap Hurdle Plumpton · Feb 2008 · Class 4
£3,904
Black Cloud (GB) — Gg.com Handicap Hurdle Towcester · Oct 2008 · Class 4