What is Lawney Hill's strike rate?

Lawney Hill has won 166 of 1,267 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13.1% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lawney Hill do best at?

Southwell by strike rate: 11 wins from 52 runners (21.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Lawney Hill?

David Bass, with 306 runners since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 44 (14.4%).

Is Lawney Hill in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Lawney Hill's Fair A/E?

1.17, from 1,263 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Lawney Hill

1,267 runners in the lifetime window · 188 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 12 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

166–1,267

Wins / Runs

13.1%

Strike rate

n=1,267

384 (30%)

Placed

1.17

Fair A/E

n=1,263 · 1.02 incl. margin

−95.44

£1 level stake

n=1,267 at SP · −7.5%

£889k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

15.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, winning with 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.17). New recruits from other yards win at 20% first time out (142 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,267 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–May Fresh horses: 13.4% 37.6% when favourite David Bass: 14.4% from 306 New recruits: 19.7% Sends off the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Southwell (21.2%, n=52), clear of the yard's 13.1% baseline. It is weakest at Kempton (4.8% over 42 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 19.7% (n=142, Fair A/E 1.83), but debutants struggle at 6.3% (n=48, Fair A/E 1.09). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 13.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.28 and +9.53 to a £1 stake over 351 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. David Bass rides 24% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (14.4%, A/E 1.24) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (21.1%, n=38). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Betfred Summer Plate at Market Rasen (Jul 2012, £28,475). The stable star of the record: What's Up Doc (IRE) — 8 wins from 35 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

13.4%+0.3

n=351 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +9.53

New recruits · first run for the yard

19.7%+6.6

n=142 · A/E 1.83 · £1 +104.48

Debutants · first career start

6.3%−6.8

n=48 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −16.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.8%−3.3

n=51 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +3.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.8%−3.3

n=41 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −16.00

When favourite

37.6%

n=125 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +5.45

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.6%−2.5

n=302 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −145.51

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.3%−4.8

n=12 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Aidan Coleman 23.1% vs 13.1% · n=147

On last-time-out winners 19.7% vs 13.1% · n=157

With new recruits 19.7% vs 13.1% · n=142

At Southwell 21.2% vs 13.1% · n=52

At Kempton 4.8% vs 13.1% · n=42

Off a 0-7-day break 21.1% vs 13.1% · n=38

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 625 72 11.5% −53.05

Chase 445 72 16.2% −8.46

Flat 134 14 10.4% −49.26

NH Flat 63 8 12.7% +15.33

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 521 69 13.2% −15.41

Good to Soft 214 28 13.1% +35.23

Good to Firm 194 31 16% −11.14

Soft 169 16 9.5% −81.99

Standard (AW) 88 10 11.4% −21.88

Heavy 74 9 12.2% −7.37

Firm 7 3 42.9% +7.12

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Fontwell 150 26 17.3% −6.40

Plumpton 100 16 16% +26.23

Worcester 86 15 17.4% +94.00

Huntingdon 78 11 14.1% +14.61

Uttoxeter 78 9 11.5% −10.39

Stratford 71 9 12.7% −5.08

Towcester 54 6 11.1% +18.50

Southwell 52 11 21.2% +20.82

Fakenham 50 5 10% −27.15

Kempton 42 2 4.8% −30.00

Newton Abbot 39 4 10.3% −19.50

Kempton (AW) 35 4 11.4% +0.12

Market Rasen 32 4 12.5% +3.50

Leicester 26 4 15.4% −7.80

Warwick 26 2 7.7% −20.87

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 542 78 14.4% −15.33

Class 5 419 53 12.6% −4.18

Class 3 155 16 10.3% −53.25

Class 6 116 18 15.5% +2.32

Class 2 18 0 0% −18.00

Class 1 16 1 6.3% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 150 48 32% 1.11 −15.55

2nd–3rd fav 305 65 21.3% 1.30 +21.11

4th–6th fav 451 38 8.4% 1.07 −51.00

7th+ in betting 361 15 4.2% 1.12 −50.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m5f – 3m 398 52 13.1% −22.84

2m1f – 2m4f 320 49 15.3% +46.75

1m5f – 2m 266 30 11.3% −77.52

Over 3m 176 22 12.5% −16.07

1m2f – 1m4f 89 11 12.4% −18.76

1m – 1m1f 17 2 11.8% −6.00

6f – 7f 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 41 5 12.2% +18.75

2009 89 18 20.2% +69.33

2010 150 27 18% +5.43

2011 149 27 18.1% +54.18

2012 155 17 11% −51.36

2013 153 17 11.1% −39.54

2014 126 11 8.7% −67.44

2015 82 4 4.9% −39.50

2016 55 9 16.4% −5.00

2017 43 4 9.3% −20.75

2018 42 6 14.3% −14.07

2019 25 2 8% −7.00

2020 29 5 17.2% +27.50

2021 29 1 3.4% −26.00

2022 11 1 9.1% −7.50

2023 34 6 17.6% +9.70

2024 28 3 10.7% +10.33

2025 13 1 7.7% −7.50

2026 13 2 15.4% −5.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 901 119 13.2% −17.54

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 428 55 12.9% −46.59

11-13 runners 321 36 11.2% +22.12

5-7 runners 318 52 16.4% −66.03

14-16 runners 118 10 8.5% −5.25

17+ runners 44 3 6.8% +10.25

2-4 runners 38 10 26.3% −9.94

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.8% completed · 1,070 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 445 81.1% 13 12 56 0 3

Hurdle 625 87.4% 14 5 59 1 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Royal Etiquette (IRE)from Harry Dunlop 72 3 17 5 Jun 18

Shimba Hills (GB)from Mick Channon 41 5 15 1 Jan 22

What's Up Doc (IRE)from D T Hughes 35 8 17 8 Jan 14

Oliver's Hill (IRE)from Charlie Longsdon · then Simon Cross 30 7 9 21 Oct 18

Safe Investment (USA)from Ben Pollock 29 3 11 27 Jun 15

Giant O Murchu (IRE)from Laurence James Butler · then John Upson 28 4 6 5 Oct 14

Miss Mayfair (IRE)from Tim Vaughan 25 2 10 21 Feb 19

Clondaw Westie (IRE)then Alan Hill 24 6 9 28 May 21

Mighty Mambo (GB)from George Margarson 24 4 9 28 Jul 15

King Ozzy (IRE)from Martin Keighley 23 1 8 6 Nov 14

Shammy Buskins (GB)from Mrs S S Harbour 20 6 10 2 Nov 11

Rock Me (IRE)from Don Cantillon · then Philip Sharp 19 3 5 18 Sep 11

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 188 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 46 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Paul Nicholls (3) and Tim Vaughan (3); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Alan Hill (3) and Ben Pauling (2); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

972116161214191711124

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDavid Bass

24% of all rides
14.4% SR · A/E 1.24

RiderRWSR£1

David Bass 306 44 14.4% −25.17

Aidan Coleman 147 34 23.1% +32.03

Christian Williams 105 13 12.4% +32.75

Nick Scholfield 78 7 9% −39.00

Harry Skelton 51 8 15.7% +48.13

Andrew Thornton 44 5 11.4% +1.75

Miss Izzie Marshall 36 2 5.6% −19.67

Tom Cannon 32 4 12.5% +22.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

174

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£942k

Prize money

2011

Best season · 27 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

I Have Dreamed (IRE) — Betfred Summer Plate (Listed Handicap Chase) Market Rasen · Jul 2012 · Listed

£28,475

Oliver's Hill (IRE) — Leicestershire Silver Fox Handicap Chase Leicester · Dec 2016 · Class 3

£9,495

Oliver's Hill (IRE) — Smarter Bets With Matchbook Handicap Chase Kempton · Oct 2017 · Class 3

£8,133

Notable horses

What's Up Doc (IRE) Oliver's Hill (IRE) Clondaw Westie (IRE) Shammy Buskins (GB) Sarahs Gift (IRE) Shimba Hills (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Royal Applause (GB) 5.7% · 5–88

Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.

Dr Massini (IRE) 15.5% · 9–58

Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.

Sixties Icon (GB) 10.6% · 5–47

Progeny have won 10% of 5,685 runs since 2012 (338 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.4% from 1,338.

King's Theatre (IRE) 4.5% · 2–44

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Shantou (USA) 23.3% · 7–30

Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,845 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.

Gone West (USA) 10.3% · 3–29

Progeny have won 8.9% of 549 runs since 2008 (61 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,355 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,355 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 March 2005 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Oct 26 Ascot Seven Airs (IRE)J: David Bass 1st Class Logistics Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 3 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 5th 50/1

01 Oct 26 Southwell No More No (IRE)J: David Bass Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 4 · 24.5f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 7/4

04 Sep 26 Worcester Citizen Jane (GB)J: Charlie Maggs Copybet Bog Now For Saturday's Racing Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 7th 4/1

24 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Normofthenorth (IRE)J: Mr James King Craig Reid Retirement Handicap Steeple Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 14 ran 9th 33/1

22 Jul 26 Worcester Citizen Jane (GB)J: Charlie Maggs PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 25/1

19 Jul 26 Newton Abbot No More No (IRE)J: Brendan Powell Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 11/2

29 Jun 26 Stratford Normofthenorth (IRE)J: Charlie Maggs Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22.5f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 4th 11/2

29 Jun 26 Stratford Citizen Jane (GB)J: Charlie Maggs Sun Racing The Home Of Racing Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 2nd 12/1

10 Jun 26 Fontwell Our Brother John (IRE)J: David Bass Jewson Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good · 10 ran PU 40/1

09 Jun 26 Southwell No More No (IRE)J: David Bass Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 4/1

16 Mar 26 Plumpton Kingston Bresil (GB)J: Charlie Maggs William Henry Robinson Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 1st 2/1

17 Feb 26 Newbury Back On Track (IRE)J: David Bass Boyle Sports Cheltenham Bank Builder Jackpot Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 250/1

26 Jan 26 Plumpton Back On Track (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Legendary Jimmy James 90th Birthday Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 8 ran 8th 150/1

11 Dec 25 Warwick Everything'sontick (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Larkshill Engineering Ltd Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Soft · 9 ran PU 18/1

11 Dec 25 Warwick Back On Track (IRE)J: David Bass Aztec Aerosols Contract Filling Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 11 ran PU 150/1

19 Jul 25 Cartmel Kingston Bresil (GB)J: Mrs Izzie Hill Cartmel Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 7/1

18 Jun 25 Worcester Kingston Bresil (GB)J: Mrs Izzie Hill DragonBet Born From The Betting Ring Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 5th 25/1

12 May 25 Southwell Kingston Bresil (GB)J: Mrs Izzie Hill Grace And Dotty Fedoras And Feathers Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 14/1

12 May 25 Southwell No More No (IRE)J: David Bass Golf And Gallop Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 8 ran 1st 9/2

29 Mar 25 Uttoxeter Everything'sontick (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan Abode Estate Agents Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 11 ran PU 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Lawney Hill's strike rate?: Lawney Hill has won 166 of 1,267 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13.1% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lawney Hill do best at?: Southwell by strike rate: 11 wins from 52 runners (21.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Lawney Hill?: David Bass, with 306 runners since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 44 (14.4%).
Is Lawney Hill in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Lawney Hill's Fair A/E?: 1.17, from 1,263 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.