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Trainer profile

Michael C Connell

195 runners in the lifetime window · 29 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Aug 2021
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
2–195
Wins / Runs
1%
Strike rate
n=195
16 (8%)
Placed
0.33
Fair A/E
n=195 · 0.24 incl. margin
−113.00
£1 level stake
n=195 at SP · −57.9%
£30,022
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.33).

Deterministic profile computed from 195 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 1.6%
The read

The record is strongest at Dundalk (AW) (4.2%, n=48), clear of the yard's 1% baseline. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 1.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.49 and −44.00 to a £1 stake over 126 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. The yard also read well on Standard (AW) going (4.1%, n=49).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−1.0
n=34 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.0
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.0
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.0
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.0
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.6%+0.6
n=126 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −44.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Dundalk (AW) 4.2% vs 1% · n=48
On Standard (AW) going 4.1% vs 1% · n=49
Off a 15-30-day break 3.8% vs 1% · n=52
With a new jockey booking 0% vs 1% · n=129 · A/E 0.00
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 144 2 1.4% −62.00
Hurdle 30 0 0% −30.00
NH Flat 21 0 0% −21.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 49 2 4.1% +33.00
Soft 40 0 0% −40.00
Good 35 0 0% −35.00
Good to Firm 30 0 0% −30.00
Heavy 21 0 0% −21.00
Good to Soft 14 0 0% −14.00
Firm 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 48 2 4.2% +34.00
Gowran Park 25 0 0% −25.00
Leopardstown 15 0 0% −15.00
Naas 14 0 0% −14.00
Cork 12 0 0% −12.00
Tipperary 12 0 0% −12.00
Wexford 9 0 0% −9.00
Fairyhouse 8 0 0% −8.00
Limerick 8 0 0% −8.00
Navan 7 0 0% −7.00
Curragh 5 0 0% −5.00
Roscommon 5 0 0% −5.00
Punchestown 4 0 0% −4.00
Tramore 4 0 0% −4.00
Clonmel 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav 12 0 0% 0.00 −12.00
4th–6th fav 18 1 5.6% 1.01 −3.00
7th+ in betting 165 1 0.6% 0.27 −98.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Wild China (IRE) 25 1 3 3 Jan 14
Barromante (IRE) 18 0 1 5 Sep 10
Runaiocht (IRE)from J S Bolger · then Paul Burgoyne 17 0 2 14 Mar 14
Candle In The Wind (IRE) 16 0 0 4 Jun 19
Paris Fame (IRE) 16 0 1 27 Aug 10
Rudies Child (IRE) 13 0 0 7 Dec 08
Digger Dandy (IRE) 10 0 0 6 Jan 17
Woodcarver (GB) 8 0 0 15 Aug 18
Solar Sail (IRE)then John C McConnell 7 0 4 23 Aug 08
Enter The Dragon (IRE) 6 0 0 12 Nov 11
Civil Dawn (IRE) 5 0 0 12 Aug 21
Pemberton Snow (IRE)from W P Browne 5 0 0 24 Mar 17
All 29 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 29 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 22 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard; 22 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0900000000110
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Danny Mullins 19 1 5.3% −4.00
Martin Harley 14 0 0% −14.00
Gavin Ryan 8 0 0% −8.00
Ken Whelan 7 0 0% −7.00
Chris Hayes 7 0 0% −7.00
Colin Keane 7 0 0% −7.00
D J Moran 7 0 0% −7.00
Connor King 7 1 14.3% +60.00
Ronan Whelan 5 0 0% −5.00
Miss A Foley 5 0 0% −5.00
Wayne Lordan 5 0 0% −5.00
Mr P T Foley 5 0 0% −5.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
3
Archived wins
£42,554
Prize money
2015
Best season · 1 win
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Solar Sail (IRE) — DNG W.H. Giles Auctioneers Handicap (47-60) Tralee · Aug 2007
£6,565
Singapore Secret (IRE) — Dundalk Stadium - Light Up Your Night Fillies Maiden Dundalk (AW) · Feb 2015
£6,210
Wild China (IRE) — Crowne Plaza Leading Jockey & Trainer Championship Handicap (47-65) (Div 1) Dundalk (AW) · Nov 2012
£3,850
Notable horses
Wild China (IRE) Solar Sail (IRE) Singapore Secret (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Chevalier (IRE) 2.9% · 1–34
Progeny have won 9.9% of 1,683 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 13.9% from 417.
Lil's Boy (USA) 0% · 0–20
Progeny have won 6.2% of 401 runs since 2008 (48 horses).
King Charlemagne (USA) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,605 runs since 2008 (116 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 3.7% from 189. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 10.9% from 156.
Teofilo (IRE) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 12.5% of 10,062 runs since 2008 (907 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 624.
Thewayyouare (USA) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,151 runs since 2008 (166 horses).
Rudimentary (USA) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,114 runs since 2008 (201 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 247 · newest first

The latest 50 of 247 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 30 April 2005 to 12 August 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 Aug 21 Leopardstown Civil Dawn (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Foxrock Maiden8f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 12th 250/1
24 Jul 21 Gowran Park Dusty Winds (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Leighlinbridge Handicap (45-65) (Div 2)9.5f · Good · 13 ran 10th 80/1
05 May 21 Gowran Park Civil Dawn (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Paulstown Maiden (Plus 10)8f · Yielding · 14 ran 14th 300/1
17 Apr 21 Curragh Civil Dawn (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery TRI Equestrian Superstore & Cafe Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden (Plus 10)6f · Good · 25 ran 22nd 300/1
14 Sep 20 Tipperary Civil Dawn (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan TipperaryRaces.ie Maiden7.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 11th 200/1
29 Aug 20 Navan Civil Dawn (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Athlumney Maiden8f · Soft · 17 ran 17th 100/1
01 Sep 19 Cork Heidi Bear (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (Plus 10)8f · Yielding · 12 ran 11th 100/1
15 Aug 19 Leopardstown Heidi Bear (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (Plus 10)7f · Good · 14 ran 14th 100/1
14 Jun 19 Fairyhouse Speirling Ophelia (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Play The Tote Jackpot For 10 Cent Handicap (45-70)6f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 16th 33/1
08 Jun 19 Navan Speirling Ophelia (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Arkle Bar Handicap (45-65)5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 12th 20/1
04 Jun 19 Tipperary Candle In The Wind (IRE)J: Adam Farragher Visit Tipperary Handicap (45-65) (Div 2)12.5f · Soft · 15 ran 13th 50/1
17 May 19 Leopardstown Candle In The Wind (IRE)J: Charlie O'Dwyer ICON Apprentice Handicap (45-70)12f · Good To Yielding · 21 ran 18th 33/1
12 May 19 Leopardstown Speirling Ophelia (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Walsh Associates Architects Maiden6f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 100/1
29 Apr 19 Naas Candle In The Wind (IRE)J: Adam Farragher Paddy Power Handicap (45-65) (Div 2)8f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 8th 33/1
18 Apr 19 Clonmel Candle In The Wind (IRE)J: Adam Farragher BBQ Race Evening Friday June 7th Handicap (45-65)9.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 11th 66/1
07 Apr 19 Cork Speirling Ophelia (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Mallow Handicap (45-65)8.5f · Good · 18 ran 17th 50/1
21 Sep 18 Ballinrobe Candle In The Wind (IRE)J: Patrick Corbett Jimmy Beef 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran 13th 66/1
05 Sep 18 Gowran Park Candle In The Wind (IRE)J: Alan Persse Kilkenny Apprentice Handicap (45-65) (Div 2)8f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 13th 66/1
15 Aug 18 Gowran Park Woodcarver (GB)J: Danny Sheehy Golf Membership At Gowran Park For 2019 Apprentice Handicap (45-65) (Div 1)9.5f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 16th 33/1
07 Jul 18 Naas Candle In The Wind (IRE)J: Colin Keane Bbq Evening July 25th Handicap (45-65)10f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 10th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael C Connell's strike rate?
Michael C Connell has won 2 of 195 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael C Connell do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 48 runners (4.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Michael C Connell's Fair A/E?
0.33, from 195 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).