Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 10% off breaks of two months or more (41 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 130 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 9.8%
The read
Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 0% (n=47, Fair A/E 0.00). The yard also reads well in Class 5 (11.3%, n=62) and on Good going (11.1%, n=36). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 3% over 33 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.8%+2.1
n=41 · A/E 1.65 · £1 −21.55
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.7
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
14.3%+6.6
n=7 · A/E 3.03 · £1 −0.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
11.1%+3.4
n=9 · A/E 1.36 · £1 −4.67
When favourite
28.6%
n=7 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −2.13
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−7.7
n=47 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −47.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Gavin Sheehan19.4% vs 7.7% · n=31
With claiming riders up0% vs 7.7% · n=47
With a new jockey booking3.5% vs 7.7% · n=57
Over 1m5f – 2m3% vs 7.7% · n=33
In Class 511.3% vs 7.7% · n=62
On Good going11.1% vs 7.7% · n=36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle6146.6%+12.12
Chase37410.8%−16.25
Flat2727.4%−15.67
NH Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft4124.9%+7.50
Good36411.1%−12.17
Good to Soft2713.7%−24.75
Heavy18316.7%+12.62
Standard (AW)500%−5.00
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Uttoxeter1100%−11.00
Warwick10220%−0.25
Bangor-on-Dee9111.1%+14.00
Haydock8112.5%−1.00
Carlisle800%−8.00
Fontwell7114.3%−0.50
Ffos Las7114.3%−2.00
Leicester6233.3%+37.62
Hereford5120%+1.00
Ripon500%−5.00
Kempton (AW)400%−4.00
Wetherby400%−4.00
Taunton400%−4.00
Southwell400%−4.00
Pontefract4125%+0.33
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 562711.3%−5.42
Class 44836.3%+0.62
Class 31100%−11.00
Class 2500%−5.00
Class 6400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite8225%0.71−3.13
2nd–3rd fav21419%1.28+2.33
4th–6th fav4624.3%0.60−33.00
7th+ in betting5523.6%1.25+9.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f3738.1%+10.95
1m5f – 2m3313%−26.00
2m5f – 3m3326.1%−2.50
Over 3m21419%−1.25
1m2f – 1m4f600%−6.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2019500%−5.00
2020400%−4.00
202121419%+16.75
202214214.3%+29.62
20232314.3%−17.00
20242913.4%−22.00
202520210%−9.17
20261400%−14.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps10598.6%−2.42
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners4137.3%−27.25
5-7 runners40410%−20.05
11-13 runners3139.7%+40.50
14-16 runners1700%−17.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 14 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 14 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nigel Twiston-Davies (3); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
11130515130000011
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.4% of 1,500 runs since 2008 (107 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 17% from 135. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.9% from 173.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,943 runs since 2008 (1,028 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.3% from 133.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 130 · newest first
The latest 50 of 130 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 February 2019 to 26 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Robert Bevis's strike rate?
Robert Bevis has won 10 of 130 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Robert Bevis in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Robert Bevis's Fair A/E?
0.92, from 129 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Robert Bevis·SR 7.7%·A/E 0.92
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