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Trainer profile

Tom McGuinness

198 runners in the lifetime window · 18 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
11–198
Wins / Runs
5.6%
Strike rate
n=198
24 (12%)
Placed
1.61
Fair A/E
n=197 · 1.28 incl. margin
−65.75
£1 level stake
n=198 at SP · −33.2%
£84,862
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.61). With a claiming rider up the record reads 9% (87 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 198 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug Killian Leonard: 1.9% from 54 Claiming riders: 9.2%
The read

It is weakest at Gowran Park (0% over 32 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 9.2% (n=87, Fair A/E 1.86), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=33, Fair A/E 0.00). Killian Leonard rides 27% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (1.9% vs 5.6%, A/E 0.83). The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (10.9%, n=55) and on Standard (AW) going (8.8%, n=34). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 1.8% over 57 runners, 3.8pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.6
n=33 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −33.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.6
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.6
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
20%+14.4
n=5 · A/E 6.69 · £1 +4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
20%+14.4
n=10 · A/E 5.03 · £1 +21.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −2.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.2%+3.6
n=87 · A/E 1.86 · £1 +0.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break 10.9% vs 5.6% · n=55
At Gowran Park 0% vs 5.6% · n=32
With claiming riders up 9.2% vs 5.6% · n=87
Over 1m – 1m1f 1.8% vs 5.6% · n=57
With Killian Leonard 1.9% vs 5.6% · n=54
On Standard (AW) going 8.8% vs 5.6% · n=34
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 10.6% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 170 9 5.3% −61.75
Hurdle 27 2 7.4% −3.00
Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 60 3 5% −23.00
Soft 52 2 3.8% −33.25
Standard (AW) 34 3 8.8% −2.50
Good to Soft 31 1 3.2% −18.00
Heavy 13 0 0% −13.00
Good to Firm 8 2 25% +24.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Gowran Park 32 0 0% −32.00
Dundalk (AW) 29 3 10.3% +2.50
Cork 24 3 12.5% +27.00
Naas 17 0 0% −17.00
Fairyhouse 16 0 0% −16.00
Wexford 11 2 18.2% +13.00
Curragh 10 0 0% −10.00
Bellewstown 9 0 0% −9.00
Chepstow 8 2 25% +14.00
Tramore 7 0 0% −7.00
Navan 7 0 0% −7.00
Leopardstown 6 0 0% −6.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00
Ffos Las 4 1 25% −0.25
Clonmel 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 15 3 20% +10.75
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 1 16.7% 0.79 −2.25
2nd–3rd fav 8 0 0% 0.00 −8.00
4th–6th fav 18 4 22.2% 2.98 +16.50
7th+ in betting 166 6 3.6% 1.94 −72.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Hastily (GB) 51 4 9 4 Nov 26
Esticky End (IRE)from David & Nicola Barron 32 3 5 25 Oct 26
Coffeemeanscoffee (IRE)from W J Martin 31 3 6 20 Sep 25
Plastic Paddy (GB)from Michael Appleby 18 0 0 7 Aug 26
Viva Voce (IRE)from David & Nicola Barron 14 1 4 20 Jan 25
El Maga (IRE)from Phillip Makin 11 0 0 31 Jul 23
Merlins Muse (USA) 10 0 0 31 Jul 23
Bella Rosetta (GB)from Joseph Parr 6 0 0 21 Oct 22
Zeyaraat (IRE) 6 0 0 17 Sep 22
An Madra Mor (IRE) 4 0 0 13 May 23
Nyota (IRE)from M Halford & T Collins 3 0 0 19 Nov 25
Muhtady (IRE) 3 0 0 15 Oct 22
All 18 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 18 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from W J Martin (4) and David & Nicola Barron (2); 6 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000000121040038
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderKillian Leonard
27% of all rides
1.9% SR · A/E 0.83
RiderRWSR£1
Killian Leonard 54 1 1.9% −39.00
Jack Cleary 37 3 8.1% +9.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→
11
Archived wins
£84,862
Prize money
2024
Best season · 3 wins
Hastily (GB) — Follow Us On Social Media Handicap (47-65) Cork · Aug 2022
£6,195
Esticky End (IRE) — HRI Best Turned-Out Flat League Handicap (47-65) (Div 2) Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2024
£6,195
Viva Voce (IRE) — Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap (47-65) (Div 2) Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2024
£6,195
Notable horses
Hastily (GB) Esticky End (IRE) Coffeemeanscoffee (IRE) Viva Voce (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Charm Spirit (IRE) 7.8% · 4–51
Progeny have won 9.3% of 3,833 runs since 2018 (339 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 448. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.7% from 135. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 446.
Elzaam (AUS) 8.3% · 3–36
Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,531 runs since 2016 (374 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.2% from 328.
Estidhkaar (IRE) 9.4% · 3–32
Progeny have won 6.9% of 1,595 runs since 2020 (112 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.8% from 119. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 229.
Buratino (IRE) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 7.5% of 1,888 runs since 2020 (118 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 119.
Intense Focus (USA) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,630 runs since 2013 (218 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.5% from 349. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.5% from 384.
Mehmas (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,232 runs since 2020 (753 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 198 · newest first

The latest 50 of 198 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 July 2021 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Siobhan Rutledge Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 14/1
25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Download The Tote App Handicap Hurdle17f · Soft · 13 ran PU 14/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Killian Leonard Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Fillies Optional Claiming Race7f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 100/1
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Victors Spirit (SAF)J: Killian Leonard Racing Again November 7th Handicap12f · Soft · 14 ran 13th 150/1
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Esticky End (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Soft · 16 ran 9th 66/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (Div I)7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 66/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good · 20 ran 15th 25/1
29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Shay Wallace WTW Willis Handicap6f · Soft · 19 ran 9th 25/1
16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Camida Winning Solution Handicap10f · Yielding · 14 ran 13th 33/1
07 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Esticky End (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Pat Farrell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div II)20f · Good · 14 ran 1st 6/1
07 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Plastic Paddy (GB)J: Patrick M O'Brien Think Print & Design Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 14 ran PU 200/1
24 Jul 26 Cork (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Follow Us On Social Media Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 19 ran 9th 11/1
23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Park Run At Wexford Saturday Mornings Handicap Hurdle (Div I)16.5f · Good · 12 ran 1st 16/1
23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Plastic Paddy (GB)J: Dylan Robinson Kilmore Quay (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 13 ran PU 300/1
03 Jul 26 Wexford Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Clearwater Construction Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)17f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 20/1
02 Jul 26 Bellewstown Plastic Paddy (GB)J: Alan Persse Ploughman Bar And Grill Handicap (0-60)8f · Good · 15 ran 14th 50/1
12 Jun 26 Gowran Park Hastily (GB)J: Killian Leonard Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Golf Club Handicap (0-60)8f · Yielding · 14 ran 13th 125/1
30 May 26 Tramore Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Get A Free Month Trial Of Racing TV Now racingtv.com/freetrial Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Good · 15 ran PU 28/1
30 May 26 Tramore Hastily (GB)J: Dylan Robinson Dunmore East Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 14th 300/1
27 May 26 Wexford Plastic Paddy (GB)J: Dylan Robinson Wexford Claiming Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran PU 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 25 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 25 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tom McGuinness's strike rate?
Tom McGuinness has won 11 of 198 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom McGuinness do best at?
Gowran Park by strike rate: 0 wins from 32 runners (0%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tom McGuinness?
Killian Leonard, with 54 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.9%).
Is Tom McGuinness in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tom McGuinness's Fair A/E?
1.61, from 197 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).