6:10 Leopardstown
This 19-runner 1m fillies handicap at Leopardstown on good ground is a competitive autumn event where the KTB numbers identify a clutch of three-year-olds and lightly raced types holding the best Fit Scores. The top five are separated by just five Fit points, underlining how tight the upper echelon looks on the figures, while the remainder of the field clusters between 53 and 39. With a lone-leader pace shape rated high-confidence, the race is set up to favour those who can travel well or get a relatively uncontested run from the front.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to one clear front-runner with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that will be difficult for closers to bridge in the straight. Most of the field, including the majority of the principals, are hold-up types who will be asked to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether anything can get close enough to the projected leader to mount a serious challenge, or whether the lone leader will prove hard to peg back in what looks a race run on hold-up lines.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Suzie Songs KTB Selection58/100
Suzie Songs arrives in excellent order, having won her last two starts and showing progressive form that matches a KTB Fit of 58. The three-year-old is effective when prominent, racing handily on or close to the lead, which could prove an ideal tactic given the projected uncontested lead in this race. Trainer G M Lyons has an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.81 from 1182 runs, while jockey Colin Keane posts a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.84 from 893 rides. She boasts a strong going record with four wins from six starts on good ground, although her sole previous run at the track resulted in a 12th-place finish. The combination of recent winning form, prominent run-style and the trainer-jockey partnership that shows 696 wins from 3533 rides at a 20% strike rate makes her the KTB Selection.
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2Drop Dead Gorgeous57/100
Drop Dead Gorgeous is rated just one Fit point behind the selection on 57 and represents the powerful combination of Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore. The three-year-old is a pronounced hold-up performer who produces her effort late, which aligns with the majority of the field in a race where the leader may get an easy time upfront. The trainer has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.88 from 2983 runs, while Moore is even more potent with a 33% strike rate and A/E of 0.9 from 248 rides at the track. She has been competitive on good ground without winning, recording one placing from five starts, and has no previous course form. Her ability to come from off the pace will be tested if the projected lone leader is allowed to dictate.
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3Mayflower55/100
Mayflower holds a KTB Fit of 55 and has shown enough at this track to enter calculations. The three-year-old is another who is usually held up and produces her effort late, fitting the profile of most runners in a contest likely to be dominated upfront by a clear leader. Trainer Stephen Thorne has a modest 9% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.91 from 22 runs, while jockey David Egan has a 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.07 from 16 rides. She is winless in three runs on good ground but boasts a course record of one win from two starts at Leopardstown. Recent form of -66574 suggests she needs to find a bit more, yet her track success cannot be ignored.
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4Aviatrice54/100
Aviatrice is next in on a KTB Fit of 54 and brings strong course form to the table as a four-year-old. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she will be among those trying to close the gap on the likely uncontested leader. Trainer David Marnane has a 4% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.48 from 389 runs, while jockey Luke McAteer posts a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 1.05 from 176 rides. She has been competitive on good ground with five placings from seven starts but is still seeking her first win on the surface. Her course record of two seconds and a fourth from three runs at Leopardstown highlights her as one who knows the track well.
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5Pink Oxalis53/100
Pink Oxalis completes the principals with a KTB Fit of 53 and is another with a solid Leopardstown record. The five-year-old is a typical hold-up type who produces her effort late with high confidence, which could leave her with plenty to do if the leader gets an easy lead. Trainer Stephen Thorne has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91 from 22 runs, while 3lb claimer Jack Kearney has a 0% strike rate from 61 rides at Leopardstown. She is winless in two runs on good ground and has a course record of one win from three starts. Recent form of 356256 shows consistency without quite landing a blow in stronger company of late.
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6Tahcawin53/100
Tahcawin has a KTB Fit of 53 and tries first-time headgear. The three-year-old is a hold-up performer who has been placed three times from seven starts on good ground, though she showed only modest form when fifth on her sole previous run at Leopardstown.
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7Blue Blue Moon52/100
Blue Blue Moon is rated 52 on KTB Fit and also sports first-time headgear. The three-year-old is usually held up with medium confidence and has no course form, remaining winless in two starts on good ground.
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8Quebec50/100
Quebec has a KTB Fit of 50 and tries first-time headgear as a four-year-old. Usually a hold-up type, he is winless in five runs on good ground and could only manage eighth on his only previous visit to Leopardstown.
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9Electric Beauty49/100
Electric Beauty carries a KTB Fit of 49 but boasts a fine course record of two wins from four starts at Leopardstown. The four-year-old is a hold-up performer with one win and a placing from three runs on good ground.
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10Thrifty Of Digby48/100
Thrifty Of Digby has a KTB Fit of 48 and has been placed at Leopardstown without winning, recording a second and a third from three starts here. The five-year-old is a hold-up type with one win from seven starts on good ground.
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11Chica Guerrera48/100
Chica Guerrera is another on 48 Fit and is a hold-up performer. The four-year-old has been placed on her only run at Leopardstown but is winless in two starts on good ground.
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12Tachos47/100
Tachos holds a KTB Fit of 47 and has a strong course record of two wins from ten starts at Leopardstown. The five-year-old is a hold-up type with two wins from ten starts on good ground.
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13Mallavelly47/100
Mallavelly is rated 47 on Fit and has won once from five starts at Leopardstown. The five-year-old is a hold-up performer with one win from eight starts on good ground.
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14Killashee Warrior46/100
Killashee Warrior has a KTB Fit of 46 and is a hold-up type with medium confidence. The three-year-old has been placed three times at Leopardstown without winning and is winless in two runs on good ground.
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15Guardian Of Realm46/100
Guardian Of Realm is rated 46 on Fit and is the sole pronounced front-runner in the field. The three-year-old has one win from three starts on good ground but has no previous form at Leopardstown.
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16Marmeladova45/100
Marmeladova carries a KTB Fit of 45 and has won once from three starts at Leopardstown. The five-year-old is a hold-up performer with one win from six starts on good ground.
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17Bella Colombia44/100
Bella Colombia has a KTB Fit of 44 and a course record of one win from three starts at Leopardstown. The five-year-old is a hold-up type with two wins from nine starts on good ground.
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18Rebel Wave44/100
Rebel Wave is rated 44 on Fit and is a hold-up performer. The three-year-old has one win from three starts on good ground but has no previous form at Leopardstown.
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19Anvika39/100
Anvika has the lowest KTB Fit on 39 and is a hold-up type. The five-year-old has been placed twice from seven starts at Leopardstown and has one win from 14 starts on good ground.
KTB verdict
The pace shape with its lone leader and high confidence rating sets up a race in which those on the speed or travelling prominently may hold an edge over the many hold-up types. Suzie Songs is the KTB Selection. She has won her last two starts, boasts a strong record on good ground, and her prominent run-style looks ideally suited to the projected shape of the race. The trainer and jockey combination adds further substance to her claims. The main dangers are likely to come from Drop Dead Gorgeous with the O'Brien/Moore axis, the course-winning Mayflower, and Aviatrice who has placed twice at the track.
KTB Selection Suzie Songs
This is the narrative read of the 6:10 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only pronounced front-runner in the field?
Guardian Of Realm is the only pronounced front-runner, tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many of the top five principals are hold-up types?
Four of the top five principals are hold-up types: Drop Dead Gorgeous, Mayflower, Aviatrice and Pink Oxalis.
Which horse has the best jockey strike rate at Leopardstown among the principals?
Ryan Moore has a 33% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.9 from 248 rides when riding for Aidan O'Brien on Drop Dead Gorgeous.
Which runners have won at Leopardstown previously?
Mayflower has won here once from two starts, Pink Oxalis once from three, Electric Beauty twice from four, Tachos twice from ten, Mallavelly once from five, Marmeladova once from three and Bella Colombia once from three.
Which horse has the strongest recent winning form among the principals?
Suzie Songs has the strongest recent winning form, with recent figures of 7-0411 showing two wins in her last three starts.
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