3:23 Redcar
This Class 4 handicap over 5f 217y at Redcar on good ground brings together a field of 15 where the KTB Fit ratings suggest a competitive but not impossible puzzle. The top two in the KTB order, Sixtygeesbaby and Return of The Gods, are closely matched on their figures while the remainder tail away gradually, with several runners carrying notes of caution around trainer strike-rates or consistency. The race features a strong pace likely to test the prominent runners and potentially set things up for those with late kick.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is expected to be strong, which could see the leaders go hard early and the race collapse in the final furlong. Sir Garfield and Yorkshire Glory are the types to make or share the running from their high draws while the majority of the field, including the KTB selection, prefer to be held up off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent horses can get away with it on this stiff track or if the hold-up performers will be able to pick up the pieces late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sixtygeesbaby KTB Selection68/100
Sixtygeesbaby is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 15 attempts and handles good ground well with two wins and three places from eight runs. His recent form of 855130 shows a mixed bag but the last win came in this grade. The selection is held up, usually producing its effort late, which should suit the anticipated strong pace. David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate at Redcar from 772 runs while Mark Winn boasts a 21% strike rate at the track from 70 rides with an A/E of 1.82. This is the horse's first run at Redcar but the trainer-jockey combination and KTB Fit of 68/100 mark him out as the one to beat.
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2Return of The Gods66/100
Return of The Gods is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form this year, including a win at today's trip from four attempts. He drops back from 7f today which asks a fresh question but looks within range on his recent efforts shown by the form line -82142. Like the selection he is held up and produces his effort late, which could be an advantage if the strong pace collapses. Edward Bethell has a 24% strike rate at Redcar from 99 runs and teams up with Oisin Orr who has an 18% strike rate at the track from 110 rides. The colt arrives with a KTB Fit of 66/100 and is the most obvious danger.
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3Sir Garfield61/100
Sir Garfield is a fair performer who has shown his best form at this trip, winning four of his 17 starts over it. He has placed once from three runs at Redcar and handles good ground well with five wins from 12 starts. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could be vulnerable if the strong pace shape materialises as expected. The Quinns have a 17% strike rate at Redcar from 48 runs while Jason Hart has a 14% strike rate from 519 rides here. His KTB Fit of 61/100 keeps him in the picture but the run-style may not be ideal.
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4Magic Boy61/100
Magic Boy is a fair performer who won on his only previous visit to Redcar and has also scored at today's trip. He has posted solid placed efforts on good ground but his recent form has been patchy and he has been beaten on his last two starts, as the figures -24173 confirm. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the likely strong pace. Nigel Tinkler has a 7% strike rate at Redcar from 917 runs while Alex Jary has a 13% strike rate from 80 rides here with an A/E of 1.71. The KTB Fit is 61/100 but the recent inconsistency is a concern.
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5Papa Cocktail57/100
Papa Cocktail is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent form this year and arrives in decent nick after a win last time. He has solid placed form over course and distance, including a second here, though his record from stall 14 is unproven. Held up and usually producing his effort late, he should appreciate the strong pace shape. Michael Herrington has a 7% strike rate at Redcar from 91 runs while Jack Mitchell has a 26% strike rate from 42 rides here with an A/E of 1.09. His KTB Fit of 57/100 leaves him a touch below the top two but he cannot be dismissed.
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6Come On Over54/100
Come On Over is a fair performer who has won both starts at this trip and showed his best form when landing this track on his only previous visit. Consistent rather than flashy, he has posted solid efforts in most of his last half-dozen runs but does tend to find one or two too good on his off days. Stepping up in class from a KTB Fit of 54/100.
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7Sugar Baby50/100
Sugar Baby is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from seven runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with three wins from 16 attempts. He has two wins from 14 starts on good ground and the yard holds a 12 percent strike rate at Redcar from 83 runs. Recent form of 751075 suggests he can be competitive when on a going day but lacks real consistency from a KTB Fit of 50/100.
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8Anaisa50/100
Anaisa is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this season with a string of modest efforts. Placed on her only previous visit to Redcar and has winning form on good ground plus a victory at this trip, so the conditions look suitable enough. Trainer's modest 8% strike-rate at the track from a huge sample suggests she will need to improve on recent runs to be competitive with a KTB Fit of 50/100.
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9Zarvali49/100
Zarvali is a modest performer who has been largely consistent without progressing. Has a placed effort at today's trip from four attempts and showed he handles good ground with a win and two places from eight starts. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Redcar from a big sample yet the KTB Fit is only 49/100.
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10Reigning Profit47/100
Reigning Profit is a fair performer on his best days but has been hit and miss this season with a recent form line of 615080. He has shown ability on good ground with three wins from 13 starts yet looks stretched at this trip having failed to place in five attempts. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Redcar adds little confidence from stall 7 and a KTB Fit of 47/100.
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11Grant Wood45/100
Grant Wood is a fair performer who has dropped to a workable mark but arrives on a long losing run with recent form figures of 000460. He has shown some ability at this track and trip, winning five times at the distance and finishing fourth here on his only previous visit. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Redcar and his own 1-13 record on good ground add to the negatives with a KTB Fit of 45/100.
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12Yorkshire Glory45/100
Yorkshire Glory is a modest performer who has been in terrific form this year with five wins from his last six starts. He has won nine times at today's trip from 18 attempts and is drawn high in stall 10 which often helps at Redcar. The negatives are his modest record at this track and an ordinary strike rate for the trainer here from a KTB Fit of 45/100.
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13Straight Ahead44/100
Straight Ahead is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with two seconds but has never won beyond his debut success. He has already been tried over today's trip without success and was well beaten on his only previous run here. The trainer's modest strike-rate at Redcar adds little confidence and the KTB Fit is 44/100.
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14Spirit of Applause39/100
Spirit of Applause is a modest performer who has been knocking at the door this year without quite managing to get his head in front. He has solid placed form at Redcar and has won over today's trip in the past though he is now 0 from 22 at the distance. Trainer Tim Easterby has an 8% strike rate from 2348 runs here while Sean Kirrane is aboard from a KTB Fit of 39/100.
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15Hover On The Wind38/100
Hover On The Wind is a modest performer who has won twice this year yet has struggled in three starts since the latest success. Drawn in stall 1 and has placed on good ground, though his two runs at this track produced no better than seventh. Trainer's modest record at Redcar adds little encouragement and the KTB Fit is 38/100.
KTB verdict
Sixtygeesbaby stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer with three wins at this trip and a good record on good ground, he benefits from a trainer-jockey combination that know Redcar well and his held-up run-style should be perfectly suited if the strong pace materialises as expected. Return of The Gods is the most obvious danger as a consistent 3-year-old who drops back in trip within his range, while Sir Garfield, Magic Boy and Papa Cocktail all have claims on their best days but carry respective question marks over pace shape, consistency or trainer form at the track.
KTB Selection Sixtygeesbaby
This is the narrative read of the 3:23 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course form at Redcar?
Sugar Baby has won twice at this track from seven runs while Magic Boy won on his only previous visit.
How many front-runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, with Sir Garfield and Yorkshire Glory both tending to make the running or race on the pace.
Which jockey has the strongest strike-rate at Redcar in this field?
Mark Winn has a 21% strike rate at Redcar from 70 rides with an A/E of 1.82.
Which horses are stepping up in class for this race?
Come On Over, Sugar Baby, Yorkshire Glory, Straight Ahead and Hover On The Wind are all stepping up in class.
What advantage might high draws hold at Redcar over this trip?
High draws often help at Redcar, which is relevant for Sixtygeesbaby in stall 11, Sir Garfield in 13, Papa Cocktail in 14 and Zarvali in 15.
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