1:50 Naas
A large field of 21 two-year-olds lines up for the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden over five and a half furlongs at Naas on good to yielding ground. With no obvious front-runner in the race, the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest where being handy could prove advantageous. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, reflecting the typical uncertainties of an early-season maiden with limited form in the book, though the top two are separated by just a single point.
How the race shapes up
Given the lack of an obvious leader the race is expected to be run at a steady tempo, placing the emphasis on tactical positioning rather than raw speed. Horses that can be handy without using up too much early energy should be favoured as the pace shape suggests a race that could be decided in the final couple of furlongs. The key question is which of the more forwardly placed runners can take advantage of the likely steady fractions while the hold-up types time their runs effectively from further back.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bougie Gals KTB Selection52/100
Bougie Gals has only one run to her name so the form picture remains thin. She drops back from 7f to an untried 5f trip today which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Naas from a big sample while Colin Keane takes the ride. Connections boast a 56/252 (22%) record with an A/E of 1.17 and positive LSP of +£47.95. Drawn in stall 2 she is well placed to be handy in a race that lacks an obvious leader. She is the KTB Selection.
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2Lady H51/100
Lady H is lightly raced with low confidence levels. She ran once at this track and trip on her debut, finishing tenth with no sign of promise. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Naas from a big sample. Trainer and jockey combined show 5/51 (10%) with an A/E of 1.00. She is unproven on good to yielding ground and has a previous run at the course that yielded no win or place. From draw 8 she could be positioned handy in what is set to be a steadily-run affair.
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3Savannah Sun49/100
Savannah Sun has been well beaten in both starts so far and arrives from stall 18 which looks no help. The trainer holds a solid 8% strike rate from 25 runs at Naas with an A/E of 1.46. Everything else is guesswork given the low confidence and tiny sample on both going and the step up in trip. She is a hold-up type who usually produces her effort late, which may not be ideal in a steadily-run race. Connections record 1/28 (4%) with an A/E of 0.48.
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4Ophelia49/100
Ophelia is a newcomer from the Aidan O'Brien yard which has a solid 22% strike rate from 1430 runs at Naas. The 5f trip on good to yielding ground is an unknown for her at this stage. With low data confidence the assessment rests mainly on her sales and pedigree background which is not supplied here. Trainer and jockey show 28/190 (15%) with an A/E of 0.88. Drawn in 16 she will need to overcome a wide berth in a race where being handy pays.
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5Endless Night49/100
Endless Night showed little on debut when finishing eighth over 7f. Dropping back to an untried 5f poses a fresh question for this lightly-raced colt. Trainer at Naas has a solid 12% strike rate from 175 runs while data confidence remains low given the small sample. He is a hold-up type who usually produces his effort late. Connections record 19/142 (13%) with an A/E of 1.06. From draw 14 he may find it hard to be ideally positioned in a tactical contest.
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6Zelente48/100
Zelente has only one run to her name so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence. She drops back from 7f to an untried 5f trip which asks a fresh question. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Naas from a large sample adds little encouragement here.
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7Shadowbelle48/100
Shadowbelle is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The pedigree and sales background offer limited clues at this stage and the overall data confidence remains low. Trainer A Oliver has a solid 10% strike rate from 215 runs at Naas.
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8Blooming Sally47/100
Blooming Sally showed some promise when second on debut over 5f. She now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a new question of her. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Naas from a large sample.
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9Alfresco47/100
Alfresco finished seventh on debut here over this trip on good to yielding ground. The Donnacha Aidan O'Brien yard has a 12% strike rate from 105 runs at Naas. With only one run on the board and a low data confidence the form is too thin to read with any confidence.
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10Luca Brillante47/100
Luca Brillante has shown fair form, finishing second in two of his last three starts, though he was well held when sixth on his only previous run here. He drops back to 5f today having failed to win in two previous attempts at the trip, while first-time headgear is now fitted. The Weld yard records a 12% strike rate from a large sample at Naas.
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11Be In Love46/100
Be In Love is a newcomer from the Aidan O'Brien yard which has a solid 22% strike rate from 1430 runs at Naas. Pedigree and sales background will be the main guide here given the low data confidence and complete lack of racecourse form. R. P. Whelan takes the ride.
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12Maxims Of Equity46/100
Maxims Of Equity is a debutant whose pedigree and sales background provide the only real pointers. Connections have a solid 12% strike rate at Naas from a big sample and they have reached for first-time headgear on this two-year-old. With low data confidence overall, any firm view on his ability would be guesswork.
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13Youveonlyonemother45/100
Youveonlyonemother has shown little in two starts to date and is now asked a new question dropped to 5f. The yard's modest record at Naas adds little encouragement from stall 17. With only two runs on the board this remains very much a watching brief.
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14Lady Quigley45/100
Lady Quigley showed little on her sole start when finishing ninth over 5f. She now steps up in trip for a trainer with a modest 5% strike rate at Naas from 130 runs. With only one run on her record the data is too thin to draw firm conclusions.
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15Violet Dove45/100
Violet Dove is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The Kevin Thomas Coleman yard has a 0% strike rate from 63 runs at Naas which adds to the unknowns here. Pedigree and sales background will need to be strong to overcome the trainer's poor course record.
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16Green Nature44/100
Green Nature has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth and then 11th on this track. Dropping back from 7f to an untried 5f poses a fresh question. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate from 644 runs at Naas while the small sample means going suitability remains unknown.
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17Leap Of Light44/100
Leap Of Light is a newcomer from the Jessica Harrington yard. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 1141 runs at Naas. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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18Sadie Rose42/100
Sadie Rose has shown little so far, finishing down the field in both starts including a 14th on this track. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 20 runs at Naas while the lightly-raced profile means the small sample gives little else to go on. Trip and ground both remain unproven quantities.
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19Pirate Anne Bonny42/100
Pirate Anne Bonny is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the Twomey yard. The trainer holds a 15% strike rate from 55 runs at Naas. With low data confidence and a wide draw in stall 20, this is very much an unknown quantity on debut.
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20Brageiro40/100
Brageiro has one run under his belt at this trip and showed nothing of note. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Naas from a large sample offers little encouragement. With such a small amount of race data overall this is one to treat with real caution.
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21Destiny Calls39/100
Destiny Calls showed very little at Naas on debut and has to improve markedly. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 66 runs at the track while the 3 lb claimer is taking his first ride here. With only one run on the board the colt remains hard to assess.
KTB verdict
Bougie Gals is the KTB Selection. She brings the highest Fit score of 52 and the benefit of Colin Keane in the saddle for a yard that operates at a 12% strike rate at Naas. While her sole run leaves the form thin and the drop to 5f is an unknown, her draw in stall 2 is a positive in a steadily-run race that should reward being handy. The main dangers are Lady H, who represents a yard in form at the track despite a modest debut, and the Aidan O'Brien newcomer Ophelia who brings the powerful yard stats into play.
KTB Selection Bougie Gals
This is the narrative read of the 1:50 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Naas results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Bougie Gals rated the top selection despite having only one prior run?
Bougie Gals has the highest KTB Fit score of 52 and benefits from the trainer's 12% strike rate at Naas combined with Colin Keane taking the ride.
How is the race likely to be run given the pace shape?
The race lacks a leader so it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
What concerns exist around the top two regarding the ground conditions?
Both Bougie Gals and Lady H have no runs on good to yielding ground and are therefore unproven on it.
Which horses are noted as hold-up types in a race that may reward being handy?
Savannah Sun, Endless Night, Youveonlyonemother, Lady Quigley, Sadie Rose, Brageiro and Destiny Calls are all described as hold-up types.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Naas among those with newcomers in the field?
Aidan O'Brien has a 22% strike rate at Naas from 1430 runs and is represented by both Ophelia and Be In Love.
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