3:20 Punchestown
This 18-runner William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle over 2m7f95y at Punchestown on good ground looks a competitive affair in which the KTB numbers highlight a clutch of smart performers with solid recent form. The top five in the Fit rankings are separated by just ten points, suggesting a race that could be decided by the nuances of trip, course form and how the uncontested lead plays out. Slane Hill heads the KTB Fit ratings at 65 and is the selection, though several others sit close behind with strong course connections or scope for improvement.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little pressure expected, allowing one horse to bowl along in front with an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for held-up types to reel in late. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit order, are held-up performers who produce their effort late, which sets up a race where the key question is whether any of the closers possess the necessary stamina and finishing speed to bridge the gap on the leader in the straight. The shape therefore favours the horse that can dictate and the one best equipped to close powerfully off a strong pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Slane Hill KTB Selection65/100
Slane Hill is a smart performer with solid ratings and a strong course connection through his trainer who posts a 20% strike rate from 59 runs at Punchestown. He has been below form this season though, finishing seventh on return last time, and his three previous runs here have produced no better than sixth. He steps up in trip today having only tried this distance once before without success, while his placed effort from six runs on good ground suggests he should handle conditions. Barry Connell and Sean Flanagan combine with a 23/122 record that shows a positive A/E of 1.23. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find a spark off his recent efforts but the selection has the class to make a serious impact if the uncontested lead sets up for closers.
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2Arctic Flame63/100
Arctic Flame is a smart performer who has shown strong form this season with two wins and a second from his last four completed starts. He ran well enough to finish fourth here on his only previous visit to Punchestown and handles good ground having recorded two wins from eight starts on it. The step up in trip is an unknown and both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track, with Patrick T Foley at 9% and Simon Torrens at 6%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he arrives with a recent fourth that keeps him in the picture. At 63 on the KTB Fit scale he is only narrowly behind the selection and could capitalise if the leader sets a searching gallop.
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3Donnie Devito59/100
Donnie Devito is a high-class performer with a solid recent record and a striking course win here from his only previous visit. He has shown enough on good ground with two wins from nine starts to suggest conditions will suit and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition at this trip. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Punchestown, Ross O'Sullivan at 8% and Shane O'Callaghan at 3%. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he has the course-and-distance profile that could see him improve markedly off a mark of 120. The addition of headgear adds an extra layer of interest in a race where late closers will need to be on their game.
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4Milan Forth59/100
Milan Forth is a smart performer who has been competitive at a high level but arrives in modest recent form with a string of placed efforts rather than wins. Only one previous run at Punchestown resulted in a fifth placing while the trainer has had too few runners here to judge. Drops back in trip today which asks a fresh question though he has shown he handles good ground with one win from four starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the 7lb claimer Kevin Healy takes the ride for Simon Cavanagh. At 59 on the KTB Fit he matches Donnie Devito and remains a player if the drop in distance brings about renewed spark.
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5Golden Temple55/100
Golden Temple is a smart performer who has been a regular in good company yet looks vulnerable on recent evidence. Two poor efforts at this track do not help his cause and he is now stepping up in trip for the first time in a while. Noel Meade and Sam Ewing both have solid records here, the yard at 11% from a huge sample and the jockey at 10%, though the yard's strike-rate remains modest given the volume of runners. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form figures of 6412P8 show flashes of ability but also fragility. A KTB Fit of 55 places him just behind the principals but the Punchestown record is a concern.
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6Howdoyalikeherhome54/100
Howdoyalikeherhome is a smart performer who has run well in places at Punchestown and has placed at today's trip. Recent form is patchy with a pulled-up effort last time and he is only 1-11 on good ground while the trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at the track adds a further negative.
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7Live To Laugh54/100
Live To Laugh is a useful performer who ran well when third over course and distance on his most recent start. He has won at today's trip though his only run on good ground brought no joy, though the jockey's strong strike-rate at the track offers some compensation for the trainer's modest record here.
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8Accustomed51/100
Accustomed is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this track, finishing placed on two of his five runs here including a recent second. He has won on good ground and the step up in trip looks worth trying given his pedigree though both yard and jockey have modest strike rates at Punchestown.
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9Smackwater Jack50/100
Smackwater Jack is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a win over today's trip. He drops back from three miles having shown mixed form this year, with trainer and jockey both operating at a 5% strike rate here from large samples.
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10Warmer Days Ahead50/100
Warmer Days Ahead is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track with three seconds or thirds from four runs. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m3f, though he has placed once at this sort of distance while trainer and jockey both operate at a 5% strike rate here.
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11Space Warrior50/100
Space Warrior is a useful performer who has run four times at this track without placing. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him, though the jockey has been successful on 31% of his 16 rides at Punchestown.
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12Latopix50/100
Latopix is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form including a second here over shorter. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of his stamina while trainer Henry de Bromhead holds a solid record at Punchestown.
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13Getaway Charlie49/100
Getaway Charlie is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He showed useful form when fifth last time and has strong course connections though the trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Punchestown is a negative.
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14Labondance49/100
Labondance is a smart performer who has shown useful form in defeat on his last two starts over hurdles. He steps up in trip today for the first time and tries first-time headgear, both fresh questions, while trainer Emmet Mullins has a solid 14% strike rate at Punchestown.
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15Killowen House49/100
Killowen House is a smart performer with a solid recent string of placed efforts including a close second last time. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while the trainer has a modest 1% strike rate from 95 runs at Punchestown.
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16Pilgrims Walk45/100
Pilgrims Walk is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form on his last three starts. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while the trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 643 runs at Punchestown and the jockey is 0-12 at the track.
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17Lord Ffrench44/100
Lord Ffrench is a useful performer who has shown consistent if largely modest form this season, finishing no better than seventh in his last four starts. He has already run once at Punchestown, finishing sixth, while the step up to 2m7f is an unknown.
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18Free Flow39/100
Free Flow is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third here on his last visit. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him though the trainer's 0% strike rate from nine runs at Punchestown is a clear negative.
KTB verdict
Slane Hill is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit rating, a trainer with a strong 20% strike rate at Punchestown and the class to capitalise if the uncontested lead sets up for late closers. His recent below-par efforts are a concern but the selection has the profile to bounce back over this longer trip. The main dangers are Arctic Flame, who has been in good heart this season and has placed form here, and Donnie Devito, whose course win and first-time headgear make him an interesting contender. Milan Forth and Golden Temple add depth but look a touch more vulnerable on current evidence.
KTB Selection Slane Hill
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 13 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Slane Hill | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Arctic Flame | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| Donnie Devito | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Milan Forth | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Golden Temple | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Howdoyalikeherhome | 28/1 | BetTom |
| Live To Laugh | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Accustomed | 8/1 | Bet Victor |
| Smackwater Jack | 12/1 | Bet Victor |
| Warmer Days Ahead | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Space Warrior | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Latopix | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Getaway Charlie | 10/1 | BetTom |
| Labondance | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Killowen House | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Pilgrims Walk | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Lord Ffrench | 20/1 | Bet Victor |
| Free Flow | 28/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 3:20 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Punchestown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Punchestown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the uncontested lead affect the chances of held-up horses like the selection?
The pace shape indicates a lone leader with little pressure, which can be hard for closers to peg back, though Slane Hill's held-up style and late effort will require him to produce a strong finish.
Which horse has the best course record among the principals?
Donnie Devito has a course win from his only previous visit to Punchestown, while Arctic Flame has a placing and Slane Hill has three runs without placing.
What fresh questions are being asked of the leading contenders?
Slane Hill and Arctic Flame step up in trip having tried the distance only once before without success, Milan Forth drops back in trip, and Donnie Devito tries first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Punchestown among those represented?
Barry Connell has a 20% strike rate at Punchestown from 59 runs, the highest among the trainers of the principals.
How many of the field are trying a step up in trip for the first time in a while?
Golden Temple is stepping up in trip for the first time in a while, while several others including Warmer Days Ahead, Space Warrior, Latopix, Labondance and Pilgrims Walk are markedly stepping up in distance.
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