What is Ray Dawson's strike rate?

Ray Dawson has won 340 of 2,990 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ray Dawson do best at?

Leicester by strike rate: 15 wins from 91 rides (16.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Ray Dawson ride most for?

Roger Varian, with 510 rides since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 97 (19%).

What is Ray Dawson's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 2,973 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Ray Dawson

2,990 rides in the lifetime window · 1,858 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 17 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

340–2,990

Wins / Runs

11.4%

Strike rate

n=2,990

913 (31%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=2,973 · 0.85 incl. margin

−571.44

£1 level stake

n=2,990 at SP · −19.1%

£5.95m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.5%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 160 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (324 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,990 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May 34.6% when favourite Roger Varian: 19% from 510 LTO winners: 18.8% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Epsom Downs (24.2%, n=33) and York (22.4%, n=49) — all clear of the rider's 11.4% baseline. It is weakest at Newbury (0% over 54 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.8% (n=324, Fair A/E 1.06), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.2% (n=499, Fair A/E 1.01). Roger Varian supplies 17% of the rides and beats the rider's average (19% vs 11.4%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (20.5%, n=112). 14 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the John Smith's Cup at York (Jul 2026, £103,080). The standout partner of the record: Symbol of Hope (GB) — 5 wins from 14 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.3%−1.1

n=1,858 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −304.06

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

18.8%+7.4

n=324 · A/E 1.06 · £1 +10.46

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.9%−0.5

n=430 · A/E 1.10 · £1 +3.74

When favourite

34.6%

n=327 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −28.46

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.1%−2.3

n=1,002 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −305.84

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.2%−5.2

n=499 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −213.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.2%+0.8

n=115 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −29.45

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Saeed bin Suroor 25% vs 11.4% · n=44

With Roger Varian 19% vs 11.4% · n=510

At Newbury 0% vs 11.4% · n=54

At Epsom Downs 24.2% vs 11.4% · n=33

Off a 0-7-day break 20.5% vs 11.4% · n=112

At York 22.4% vs 11.4% · n=49

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,059 126 11.9% −151.26

Good 672 76 11.3% −148.20

Good to Firm 584 70 12% −82.32

Soft 280 17 6.1% −150.82

Good to Soft 279 44 15.8% −5.34

Heavy 72 3 4.2% −7.50

Firm 44 4 9.1% −26.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 232 30 12.9% −1.03

Chelmsford City (AW) 221 32 14.5% +35.09

Kempton (AW) 213 19 8.9% −92.09

Yarmouth 140 14 10% −81.11

Lingfield (AW) 127 17 13.4% −13.31

Newcastle (AW) 121 13 10.7% −36.10

Bath 120 10 8.3% −59.75

Nottingham 119 19 16% −10.00

Newmarket 107 8 7.5% −42.50

Doncaster 94 11 11.7% −40.94

Windsor 94 9 9.6% −32.34

Leicester 91 15 16.5% +88.25

Ascot 91 10 11% −3.92

Newmarket 89 11 12.4% −30.34

Southwell (AW) 84 10 11.9% −15.32

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 844 91 10.8% −287.25

Class 6 689 77 11.2% −10.72

Class 4 551 66 12% −75.31

Class 2 298 39 13.1% +14.42

Class 3 256 38 14.8% −70.41

Class 1 115 14 12.2% −29.45

Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 376 121 32.2% 1.02 −45.38

2nd–3rd fav 668 115 17.2% 1.02 −88.06

4th–6th fav 937 80 8.5% 1.05 −21.00

7th+ in betting 1,009 24 2.4% 0.71 −417.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,166 133 11.4% −139.04

1m – 1m1f 676 72 10.7% −218.42

1m2f – 1m4f 544 64 11.8% −220.83

Under 6f 425 53 12.5% −37.40

1m5f – 2m 166 18 10.8% +57.25

2m1f – 2m4f 12 0 0% −12.00

2m5f – 3m 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2009 1 0 0% −1.00

2010 17 2 11.8% +11.00

2011 85 5 5.9% −31.00

2012 36 1 2.8% −32.50

2013 62 2 3.2% −55.05

2014 31 4 12.9% −3.50

2017 67 3 4.5% −48.00

2018 107 7 6.5% −67.50

2019 64 0 0% −64.00

2020 296 33 11.1% +5.71

2021 465 62 13.3% −51.85

2022 458 65 14.2% −18.37

2023 251 33 13.1% +60.91

2024 268 23 8.6% −33.51

2025 358 47 13.1% −70.95

2026 424 53 12.5% −171.83

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,145 232 10.8% −321.20

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,008 127 12.6% −119.29

11-13 runners 879 73 8.3% −269.33

5-7 runners 552 89 16.1% +21.52

14-16 runners 345 24 7% −114.62

17+ runners 154 7 4.5% −98.88

2-4 runners 52 20 38.5% +9.16

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Symbol of Hope (GB) 14 5 5 17 Aug 26

Ataser (GB) 12 4 6 27 Jun 25

Danzeno (GB) 12 3 7 3 Sep 22

Stoichkhov (IRE) 11 2 6 21 Feb 14

Mr Swivell (GB) 10 2 7 11 Jul 26

Louie The Legend (IRE) 10 1 2 23 Apr 26

Over Spiced (GB) 9 2 4 6 Aug 26

Clarendon House (GB) 9 2 4 24 Sep 24

Indalo (IRE) 8 1 4 26 Sep 26

Super Den (GB) 8 0 2 2 Aug 23

Grandfather Tom (GB) 8 1 2 9 May 22

Blue De Vega (GER) 8 1 2 21 Oct 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,858 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1714914131111179964

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRoger Varian

17% of all rides
19% SR · A/E 0.97

TrainerRWSR£1

Roger Varian 510 97 19% −150.88

Michael Appleby 163 20 12.3% −16.88

Robert Cowell 153 18 11.8% +14.51

T J Kent 106 12 11.3% −5.41

Tony Carroll 93 10 10.8% −23.75

Grace Harris 90 12 13.3% −19.00

Mark Loughnane 86 7 8.1% +3.13

Ismail Mohammed 81 14 17.3% +32.33

Henry Spiller 72 6 8.3% −25.17

Jane Chapple-Hyam 63 3 4.8% −38.50

Dylan Cunha 51 3 5.9% −39.75

Charles O'Brien 51 7 13.7% +4.12

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

340

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£5.95m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 65 wins

Raammee (GB) — John Smith's Cup (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) York · Jul 2026 · Class 2

£103,080

Rahiebb (GB) — Boodles Yorkshire Cup Stakes (Group 2) York · May 2026 · Group 2

£102,078

Zain Claudette (IRE) — Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) York · Aug 2021 · Group 2

£85,065

Notable horses

Symbol of Hope (GB) Ataser (GB) Sallaal (IRE) Lir Speciale (IRE) Danzeno (GB) Believe In Love (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 12.3% · 9–73

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,606 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.

Dandy Man (IRE) 11.1% · 8–72

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,991 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.

Dark Angel (IRE) 9.8% · 6–61

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,957 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 17.6% · 9–51

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,249 runs since 2014 (1,110 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 962.

Showcasing (GB) 6.1% · 3–49

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,665 runs since 2014 (999 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 12.2% · 5–41

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,227 runs since 2014 (658 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,200.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,990 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,990 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 October 2009 to 28 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Pure Moon (GB)T: Tom Clover Racing TV Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Soft · 13 ran 2nd 12/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Alnofoor (GB)T: Ms Claire O'Connell Halloween Spooktacular Fireworks 31st Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 11/4

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Golden Caviar (IRE)T: Ed Dunlop Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 40/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Drifts Away (GB)T: T. J. Kent Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 6th 9/2

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Pinatubo's Legacy (GB)T: T. J. Kent Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 2nd 11/2

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Al Mandoos (GB)T: Saeed bin Suroor Unibet's New Var Goal Guarantee Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 4th 11/4

25 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Little Dorrit (GB)T: Roger Varian Prix Belle de NuitClass 1 · 14f · Soft · 13 ran 4th 10/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Prosperitas (IRE)T: T. J. Kent Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 9th 3/1F

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Ultrasoul (IRE)T: Roger Varian William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 10f · Heavy · 14 ran 3rd 20/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Anyasi (GB)T: Roger Varian William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 7/2

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Persian Flaw (GB)T: David Menuisier William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 11th 40/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Never Just A Dream (IRE)T: T. J. Kent William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 11 ran 4th 17/2

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Tenshi (IRE)T: Roger Varian "What Are The Odds" By Alan Newman Ebf Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 25/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Inishbeg (IRE)T: Kevin Ryan William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 2 · 7f · Heavy · 9 ran 3rd 9/2

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Senor Cortez (IRE)T: John Butler Phil Bull Trophy Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 18f · Heavy · 9 ran 7th 17/2

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Wechaad (IRE)T: Roger Varian Inkerman London Handicap StakesClass 2 · 8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 11/2

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Cornichon (FR)T: Roger Varian Virgin Bet / British Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 5/2

10 Oct 26 York Apollo One (GB)T: P. Charalambous & J. Clutterbuck Sky Bet Sprint Trophy Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 21 ran 17th 18/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Flash Rascal (GB)T: David Loughnane Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 6th 28/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Potomac River (GB)T: T. J. Kent Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 2nd 15/8

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · to 11 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Ray Dawson's strike rate?: Ray Dawson has won 340 of 2,990 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ray Dawson do best at?: Leicester by strike rate: 15 wins from 91 rides (16.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Ray Dawson ride most for?: Roger Varian, with 510 rides since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 97 (19%).
What is Ray Dawson's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 2,973 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.