What is Ryan Kavanagh's strike rate?

Ryan Kavanagh has won 70 of 716 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.8% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ryan Kavanagh do best at?

Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 10 wins from 37 rides (27%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Ryan Kavanagh ride most for?

Ian Williams, with 287 rides since 2008 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 36 (12.5%).

Is Ryan Kavanagh in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 13 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Ryan Kavanagh's Fair A/E?

0.91, from 713 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Ryan Kavanagh

716 rides in the lifetime window · 310 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2023→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

70–716

Wins / Runs

9.8%

Strike rate

n=716

209 (29%)

Placed

0.91

Fair A/E

n=713 · 0.77 incl. margin

−350.21

£1 level stake

n=716 at SP · −48.9%

£659k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 40 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.91). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (95 rides). Rides mostly for Ian Williams — 40% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 716 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 31.1% when favourite Ian Williams: 12.5% from 287 LTO winners: 20% Rides the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Chelmsford City (AW) (27%, n=37), clear of the rider's 9.8% baseline. It is weakest at Lingfield (AW) (2.3% over 86 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20% (n=95, Fair A/E 1.00), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 0% (n=40, Fair A/E 0.00). Ian Williams supplies 40% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.5% vs 9.8%, A/E 0.96). The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (25%, n=72). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 2.4% over 42 rides, 7.4pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Lion Ring (IRE) — 5 wins from 26 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8.1%−1.7

n=310 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −158.65

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20%+10.2

n=95 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −21.82

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.9%−3.9

n=68 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −40.50

When favourite

31.1%

n=74 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −14.41

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.4%−0.4

n=667 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −351.29

Big fields · 14+ runners

0%−9.8

n=40 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −40.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 25% vs 9.8% · n=72

At Chelmsford City (AW) 27% vs 9.8% · n=37

On last-time-out winners 20% vs 9.8% · n=95

At Lingfield (AW) 2.3% vs 9.8% · n=86

On Good to Soft going 2.4% vs 9.8% · n=42

With Rachel Cook & John Bridger 3% vs 9.8% · n=33

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 438 47 10.7% −191.81

Good to Firm 116 12 10.3% −55.97

Good 97 8 8.2% −48.06

Good to Soft 42 1 2.4% −39.12

Soft 14 1 7.1% −8.50

Firm 5 1 20% −2.75

Heavy 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 110 11 10% −44.07

Lingfield (AW) 86 2 2.3% −63.50

Southwell (AW) 80 11 13.8% −30.26

Newcastle (AW) 69 8 11.6% −29.92

Kempton (AW) 56 5 8.9% −28.05

Chelmsford City (AW) 37 10 27% +3.99

Chepstow 25 4 16% −9.92

Ffos Las 22 1 4.5% −17.50

Leicester 22 1 4.5% −18.50

Chester 19 2 10.5% −5.00

Windsor 18 1 5.6% −13.67

Nottingham 18 0 0% −18.00

Yarmouth 18 2 11.1% −9.88

Newbury 17 2 11.8% +15.00

Bath 16 2 12.5% −8.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 363 44 12.1% −161.97

Class 5 215 19 8.8% −90.62

Class 4 91 6 6.6% −57.62

Class 3 27 0 0% −27.00

Class 2 20 1 5% −13.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 88 25 28.4% 1.00 −19.91

2nd–3rd fav 151 33 21.9% 1.28 +14.70

4th–6th fav 242 11 4.5% 0.56 −129.00

7th+ in betting 235 1 0.4% 0.15 −216.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Lion Ring (IRE) 26 5 10 18 Jun 26

Call Glory (IRE) 17 2 9 19 Oct 26

Just Typical (GB) 14 3 6 6 Aug 26

Beauzon (GB) 12 1 2 28 Oct 26

Nordic Glory (IRE) 11 2 7 26 Jan 26

Tonal (FR) 10 5 8 2 Nov 26

Uniting (IRE) 10 2 5 26 Oct 26

Faustus (GB) 10 1 3 5 Aug 26

Typical Woman (GB) 10 2 4 22 May 26

Street Life (GB) 10 1 5 27 Apr 26

Simiyann (IRE) 9 1 2 27 Aug 26

Queensland Boy (IRE) 9 2 4 7 Mar 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 310 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 13

Only 13 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

12913079127188189

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardIan Williams

40% of all rides
12.5% SR · A/E 0.96

TrainerRWSR£1

Ian Williams 287 36 12.5% −120.16

Patrick Morris 55 5 9.1% −24.92

Amy Murphy 47 2 4.3% −35.50

Michael Attwater 45 5 11.1% −9.25

Rachel Cook & John Bridger 33 1 3% −14.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2023→

Archived wins

£659k

Prize money

2026

Best season · 32 wins

One And Gone (IRE) — HKJC World Pool Battaash Handicap Sandown · Jul 2026 · Class 2

£12,885

Matilda Joslyngage (IRE) — Fitzdares Apprentice Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Goodwood · Jun 2026 · Class 4

£10,468

One And Gone (IRE) — Goodwood Horseracing Club Membership Handicap Goodwood · Jun 2026 · Class 4

£8,191

Notable horses

Lion Ring (IRE) Tonal (FR) Just Typical (GB) Tasever (GB) One And Gone (IRE) Call Glory (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

The Last Lion (IRE) 19.2% · 5–26

Progeny have won 7.4% of 915 runs since 2020 (63 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4% from 100.

Soldier's Call (GB) 9.1% · 2–22

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,119 runs since 2023 (217 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.6% from 199. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 246.

Australia (GB) 15.8% · 3–19

Progeny have won 11.1% of 5,672 runs since 2018 (566 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.

Mehmas (IRE) 17.6% · 3–17

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,201 runs since 2020 (751 horses).

Brazen Beau (AUS) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 10.2% of 2,475 runs since 2019 (186 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.7% from 162. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 15.8% from 158.

Showcasing (GB) 6.7% · 1–15

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,637 runs since 2014 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 716 · newest first

The latest 50 of 716 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 May 2023 to 2 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Kindly Queen (IRE)T: Christopher Kellett Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 80/1

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Tonal (FR)T: Ian Williams All Weather Championship Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 10/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Be Frank (GB)T: Ian Williams Munich's Grosser Dallmayr-preis Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 2nd 11/2

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Beaune (IRE)T: Bernard Llewellyn Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 11/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Beauzon (GB)T: Ian Williams Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 11th 100/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Karmacy (IRE)T: Andrew Martin Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 80/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Uniting (IRE)T: Luke Dace Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 12th 33/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) St Peter's Cross (GB)T: Luke Dace Unibet More Extra Place Races EBF Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 10th 80/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Kanishka (IRE)T: Ian Williams Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 40/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Jodhpur Blue (FR)T: Ian Williams Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Selling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 100/30J

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Byerley Lady (GB)T: Ian Williams Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 66/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Vinny's Dream (IRE)T: Ian Williams Midnite: Built For 2027 Not 2007 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 150/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Crypto Quest (IRE)T: Scott Dixon Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 14/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Daretobedifferent (IRE)T: Des Donovan bettingsites.co.uk New Betting Sites Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 66/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Call Glory (IRE)T: Ian Williams bettingsites.co.uk Compare Before You Bet Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 12/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Beauzon (GB)T: Ian Williams Saturday 24th October Gents Night Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 150/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Dadawada (IRE)T: Christopher Kellett Market Cross Jewellers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 8th 20/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Jodhpur Blue (FR)T: Ian Williams Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 7 ran 2nd 17/2

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Pride Eye (GB)T: Mark Rimell Free Bets On Attheraces.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 11/2

13 Oct 26 Leicester Cypriot Diaspora (GB)T: Rod Millman Christmas Parties At Leicester Racecourse Book Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 13 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 15 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Ryan Kavanagh's strike rate?: Ryan Kavanagh has won 70 of 716 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.8% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ryan Kavanagh do best at?: Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 10 wins from 37 rides (27%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Ryan Kavanagh ride most for?: Ian Williams, with 287 rides since 2008 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 36 (12.5%).
Is Ryan Kavanagh in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 13 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Ryan Kavanagh's Fair A/E?: 0.91, from 713 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.