Shane Crawley
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 50 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.07). With a claiming rider up the record reads 9% (86 runs).
The record is strongest at Dundalk (AW) (14%, n=57), clear of the yard's 7.5% baseline. The yard also reads well on Standard (AW) going (13.8%, n=58). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 0% over 45 runners, 7.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.77 across 75 runners (4% strike, −51.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown (Feb 2019, £51,625).
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2014→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 526 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 526 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 February 2014 to 17 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Shane Crawley's strike rate?
- Shane Crawley has won 19 of 254 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Shane Crawley do best at?
- Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 57 runners (14%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Is Shane Crawley in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Shane Crawley's Fair A/E?
- 1.07, from 254 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.