12:10 Worcester
This Class 4 novices' handicap steeplechase at Worcester over 2m4f on good to soft ground brings together a field of 15, several of whom arrive in consistent if not yet winning form over fences or from hurdles. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Up To Trix heading the numbers on 63, followed closely by Five Bar Gate, Mossy Fen Coolio, Joyau Allen and Grand Garcon all in the high 50s. Official ratings range from 72 to 112, and with a number of lightly raced types plus some with placed form at the trip, the race looks competitive on paper.
How the race shapes up
A genuinely run contest is expected, with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several prominent racers in what should prove a fair test. Lexie's Moon is the most obvious pacesetter, while Five Bar Gate, Mossy Fen Coolio, Lasko des Obeaux, Jukebox King and Windsurfer are all usually prominent or handy. Up To Trix and Grand Garcon prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late, so the key question is whether the race will be run at a sufficient pace to allow the closers a chance to come through or whether the prominent brigade can dictate matters from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Up To Trix KTB Selection63/100
Up To Trix is a smart performer who has shown consistent placed form on all three completed starts since returning from a long absence. He has been placed at today's trip on his only attempt at the distance and now benefits from a yard that operates at a 22% strike rate at Worcester from 174 runs. Half-brother to useful winner Secret Trix, though the small sample on this going leaves that side of his profile untested. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well suited if the race develops as anticipated. The trainer and jockey combination carries a strong 25% strike rate together, and with an official rating of 107 he looks to have solid claims in this field.
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2Five Bar Gate60/100
Five Bar Gate is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after finishing second in both starts this spring. He drops back in trip to 2m4f where he has already been placed once without winning. The trainer strikes at 14% here from 529 runs in line with his record elsewhere, while the jockey's figures at Worcester are also in line with his record at other tracks. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is likely to be prominent in a race that should be run at a genuine pace. Half-brother to Broomfields Cave, he holds an official rating of 110 and remains a key player.
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3Mossy Fen Coolio59/100
Mossy Fen Coolio is a smart performer who showed useful form when landing a bumper on debut and has since posted two solid placed efforts in novice hurdles, including at this trip. Lightly raced with only three career starts in the last year, he remains open to improvement but lacks a strong recent win. The O'Neill yard records an 11% strike rate at Worcester from 130 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while McLernon has an 8% strike rate here from 297 rides. Usually racing handily, he should be involved early and his official rating of 110 keeps him firmly in the mix.
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4Joyau Allen58/100
Joyau Allen is a useful performer who ran well enough when third on his stable debut at Exeter last month. He drops back in trip today having been well held over further on his previous two starts and the small sample on this ground leaves suitability open to question. Connections are proven at Worcester with a 17% strike rate from 205 runs for the trainer, and the jockey also strikes at 17% here from 263 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he will be looking to pick up the pieces late. Full brother to Grade 1 winner Envoi Allen, he carries an official rating of 99 and cannot be dismissed.
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5Grand Garcon58/100
Grand Garcon is a smart performer who has shown strong ability on his four starts to date and holds an official rating of 112. He drops back in trip today having failed to win in two previous runs at this distance. Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 28% strike rate at Worcester from 394 runs which is above his 23% at other courses, though the jockey has a modest record at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well suited by a genuinely run race. Dropping in class, he is another who remains open to further progress.
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6Lexie's Moon54/100
Lexie's Moon is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after finishing second in both starts this year. She steps up to 2m4f for the first time having been placed at the trip without winning, and has shown she handles good to soft ground. The trainer records a 7% strike rate at Worcester from 15 runs while this is the horse's first appearance here. Stepping up in class and likely to make the running, she sets the early fractions.
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7Kastellion54/100
Kastellion is a useful performer on official ratings who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He drops back in trip to 2m4f today having been placed at the distance on one of his four attempts, while first-time headgear is now applied. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Worcester from 53 runs, in line with their record elsewhere. Stepping up in class and usually held up, he makes his chasing debut.
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8Galeforcechopper54/100
Galeforcechopper is a useful performer who won over hurdles here from 5 runs at the track. Recent form has been patchy with a pulled-up effort last time but the official rating of 90 still leaves him competitive in this grade. He steps up in trip for the first time today while the trainer records a 12% strike rate at Worcester from 83 runs in line with his record elsewhere. Usually held up, he has course-winning form over hurdles.
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9In The Age53/100
In The Age is a smart performer who showed useful form when third on hurdling debut last year before a solid fourth at this trip. He has a win on good to soft but was well held when fifth here on return last month. The trainer maintains an 18% strike rate at Worcester from 441 runs. Usually held up, he has course experience but steps back into a handicap.
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10Lasko des Obeaux53/100
Lasko des Obeaux is a smart performer who showed useful form when placed on his first two starts before finishing sixth on his latest outing. He drops back in trip today having been unsuccessful in one previous run at this distance. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Worcester from 11 runs. Usually racing handily, he is half-brother to Haddex Des Obeaux.
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11Jukebox King52/100
Jukebox King is a smart performer on his official rating of 109 and has shown consistent placed form in four runs since returning from a long absence. He drops back in trip today having failed to win in two runs at this distance previously while the dam has had three other runners without a winner between them. The trainer's 5% strike rate at Worcester from 22 runs is in line with their record at other courses. Usually prominent, he is another who should be involved early.
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12Keep Star50/100
Keep Star is a smart performer who won on return from a long absence last time and now steps up in trip. He has been placed once at this distance without winning, but has no experience of good to soft ground and makes a first appearance at Worcester. The trainer has a 14% strike rate here from 550 runs, in line with his record elsewhere.
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13Le Soleil Reve50/100
Le Soleil Reve is a smart performer who has shown consistent placed form over this trip. He has only one previous run here when sixth on this track and the yard's 0% strike rate from 30 runs at Worcester sits below their 15% at other courses. Half-brother to a Grade 3 winner but going suitability remains unknown with just seven career runs. Usually settling in midfield, he has course experience.
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14Windsurfer49/100
Windsurfer is a smart performer who has been placed in two of his last three starts and holds an official rating of 105. He has a win at today's trip but steps up in distance for the first time since last season and was only seventh on his sole visit to Worcester. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at the track from 136 runs while the jockey is 0 from 2 here. Usually prominent and stepping up in class.
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15Dynamite Defense40/100
Dynamite Defense is a modest performer who has been placed three times from eight runs at Worcester without winning. He steps up in trip today having been placed at this distance on one of five attempts. The trainer's 3% strike rate at the track is in line with their record elsewhere. Usually prominent, he has placed form at the course but steps up in class.
KTB verdict
Up To Trix is the KTB Selection. He has shown consistent placed form since returning from a long absence, is proven at the trip, and comes from a yard that operates at a 22% strike rate at Worcester. Usually held up, he should be ideally suited by the expected genuine pace, and his half-brother record adds further interest. The main dangers are Five Bar Gate, who arrives in solid form and is likely to be prominent, Mossy Fen Coolio who remains lightly raced and open to improvement, and the strong-trainer duo of Joyau Allen and Grand Garcon, both of whom bring useful ability into the equation.
KTB Selection Up To Trix
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 1 Nov. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Up To Trix | 13/2 | BoyleSports, 12:03am |
| Five Bar Gate | 14/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Mossy Fen Coolio | 4/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Joyau Allen | 7/2 | BoyleSports, 12:03am |
| Grand Garcon | 9/2 | Betfred, 12:03am |
| Lexie's Moon | 25/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Kastellion | 25/1 | BoyleSports, 12:03am |
| Galeforcechopper | 80/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| In The Age | 12/1 | BoyleSports, 12:03am |
| Lasko des Obeaux | 14/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Jukebox King | 17/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Keep Star | 33/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Le Soleil Reve | 33/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Windsurfer | 22/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Dynamite Defense | 100/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 12:10 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Worcester?
Grand Garcon's trainer Paul Nicholls has a 28% strike rate at Worcester from 394 runs which is above his 23% at other courses.
How many runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Up To Trix, Keep Star and Kastellion have either no runs or limited experience on good to soft, with Up To Trix and Keep Star completely unproven.
Who is likely to set the pace?
Lexie's Moon tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the most obvious front-runner in a genuinely run race.
Which horse has the highest official rating?
Grand Garcon and In The Age both carry an official rating of 112, the highest in the field.
Which horse has notable pedigree connections in this race?
Joyau Allen is a full brother to Grade 1 winner Envoi Allen, while Up To Trix is half-brother to useful winner Secret Trix.
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