3:40 Curragh
The 3:40 Curragh sees a competitive 17-runner Listed contest over 6f on yielding to soft ground. Class 1 company and a big field add depth, while KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top with Carla Ridge heading the numbers on 63. Most of the field are held-up types, which aligns with the race's pace shape of a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested lead.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape, one horse is expected to bowl along in front with little pressure. The remainder of the field, dominated by held-up runners, will be playing catch-up from off the pace. This setup poses the key question of whether any closer can bridge the gap on a horse with an easy lead on ground that may favour those up front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Carla Ridge KTB Selection63/100
Carla Ridge is a smart performer who has already won over this trip and at this track. She ran well when sixth in Listed company last time but now drops back from 7f while facing unproven ground. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Curragh from 142 runs with an A/E of 1.07, while the jockey operates at 7% from 1939 rides with an A/E of 0.78. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, and she has won once from three runs at the Curragh. Her OR of 109 places her at the top of the weights in a field of 17.
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2Pivotal Attack56/100
Pivotal Attack is a useful performer who has placed once from four runs at the Curragh and showed his best effort when second here last season. He won his only start on yielding to soft ground and now drops back to 6f having last run over a mile, which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Curragh from 418 runs with an A/E of 0.79, while the jockey is on 7% from 993 rides with an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 384189 and he carries an OR of 102.
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3Gazelle d'Or55/100
Gazelle d'Or is a fair sort who has won three times at the Curragh from nine runs and also has a win on yielding to soft ground from a single try. She has been out of form on her last three starts after a string of placed efforts and is drawn wide in stall 17. The step back up to 6f looks a fair question after her latest run over 5f. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Curragh from 253 runs with an A/E of 1.16, while the jockey operates at 4% from 360 rides with an A/E of 0.85. Her recent form is 022400 and she carries an OR of 88.
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4Royal Bay Cen55/100
Royal Bay Cen is a useful performer who has won at this trip and showed solid form when winning twice earlier this season. Only one run at the Curragh resulted in a fair fourth and he is completely unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Curragh from 885 runs with an A/E of 0.93, while the jockey is on 7% from 653 rides with an A/E of 0.74. Usually held up with medium confidence in that assessment, his recent form reads 45-144 and he carries an OR of 100.
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5Space Bear55/100
Space Bear is a fair performer who has been in decent form this year with two wins from his last four starts. He has won at this trip but is unproven on yielding to soft ground and makes his first appearance at the Curragh. The trainer has an 18% strike rate here from 11 runs with an A/E of 1.41, while the jockey has had too few rides at the track to judge with 0% from 3. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is stepping up in class with recent form of 230211 and an OR of 85.
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6Staysound Susie53/100
Staysound Susie is a fair performer who has won twice at this track from ten runs and has also scored at today's trip. She has been hit and miss lately with form figures of 531607 but the yard's 7% strike rate from 404 runs at Curragh is respectable. The main negative is that she is unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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7Spinning Around53/100
Spinning Around is a useful performer who has already won over this track. Has been mixing it at a decent level all year and the recent form reads respectably enough in this company. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here while the drop back to an untried 6f on yielding to soft ground adds a couple of unknowns.
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8Fregada51/100
Fregada is a useful performer who has won once from four runs at the Curragh and also has a win at this trip. Recent form has been ordinary with a best of third in a lesser race last time. Trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at the track is a negative while the horse remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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9Greydreambeliever51/100
Greydreambeliever is a useful performer who has run well at this level on his day but has been inconsistent lately and finished only ninth when he tried this track before. Drops back to 6f today having won at the trip earlier in his career though his last run came over 7f. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at the Curragh from a big sample while the jockey also knows the place well.
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10Dancing Saxon51/100
Dancing Saxon is a useful performer who arrives in solid form with a recent sequence of 112132 and has already won over today's 6f trip. Drops back from 7f while making a first appearance at the Curragh, so that element is unknown. Trainer strikes at 12% here from a big sample while the jockey is on 7%, though the horse remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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11Likedbymike48/100
Likedbymike is a useful performer who has run well here on a couple of occasions without winning. Steps up to 6f today having scored at the trip earlier in his career, though he arrives from a 5f run and is unproven on yielding to soft ground. Trainer remains winless from 28 runs at the Curragh while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate here from a large sample.
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12Focaccia48/100
Focaccia is a fair performer who has placed without winning at this trip and showed her best effort here when third over 5f last season. She steps up to 6f for the first time today while having no experience on yielding to soft ground, both unknowns that add uncertainty. The yard and jockey have modest records at Curragh.
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13Treasure Rose47/100
Treasure Rose is a fair performer who has shown useful form at this trip in the past with one win from three runs. She drops back from 7f today having been well held in her only previous run at the Curragh and remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 5%.
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14Thenandnow45/100
Thenandnow is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at the Curragh but has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. Drops back to 6f having won at the trip earlier in his career though his sole run on yielding to soft ground brought no joy. First-time headgear is now fitted while both trainer and jockey have established but modest records at this track.
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15Institute45/100
Institute is a fair performer who showed his best form when winning a 5f maiden last time. He steps up to 6f for the first time today having already placed once at the trip, while his sole run at the Curragh resulted in a midfield finish. Aidan O'Brien has a solid 19% strike rate at the track from a huge sample, though jockey W M Lordan is operating at 9%.
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16Do For Love43/100
Do For Love is a fair performer who has shown useful form at this track but has been below that level on his last two starts. Dropping back from a mile to 6f asks a fresh question while the first-time headgear is another unknown. Trainer has an 8% strike rate from 402 runs here while the jockey is 4% from 241 rides at the Curragh.
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17Luna Mia37/100
Luna Mia is a fair performer who has shown some spark at this track without ever looking like winning. She has winning form on yielding to soft ground and has scored over today's 6f trip, though she was well held when last seen over 7f. The yard's poor record at Curragh and the jockey's modest strike rate here add to the negatives.
KTB verdict
Carla Ridge is the KTB Selection. A smart performer with a win over this trip and at this track already in the book, she showed her quality with a Listed sixth last time and now drops back to her optimum 6f. The unproven ground is the main concern, yet she has the best KTB Fit Score in the race and a solid course record. Main dangers include Pivotal Attack, who has placed at the Curragh and won on the ground, Gazelle d'Or with her strong course record and going suitability, and the in-form pair Royal Bay Cen and Space Bear, though both face ground questions.
KTB Selection Carla Ridge
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Curragh results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The high-confidence lone-leader pace shape means one clear front-runner is likely to enjoy an uncontested lead that can be hard for the many held-up runners to peg back.
What are the main ground concerns for the principals?
Carla Ridge, Royal Bay Cen and Space Bear are all unproven on yielding to soft, while Pivotal Attack and Gazelle d'Or have each won on the surface from one start.
Which horse has the strongest Curragh course record among the principals?
Gazelle d'Or has won three times at the Curragh from nine runs, compared to Carla Ridge's one win from three and the more limited or modest placed efforts of the others.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at the Curragh among the principals?
Space Bear's trainer has an 18% strike rate at Curragh from 11 runs with an A/E of 1.41.
What trip and class questions face the leading contenders?
Carla Ridge drops back from 7f, Pivotal Attack drops back from a mile, Gazelle d'Or steps back up to 6f from 5f, while Space Bear is stepping up in class.
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