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Trainer profile

Donal Commins

179 runners in the lifetime window · 36 individual horses
As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 3 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
9–179
Wins / Runs
5%
Strike rate
n=179
19 (11%)
Placed
1.22
Fair A/E
n=179 · 0.99 incl. margin
−30.90
£1 level stake
n=179 at SP · −17.3%
£91,791
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.22).

Deterministic profile computed from 179 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 1.9% (n=104, Fair A/E 0.50). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (15.2%, n=33).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.3%−2.7
n=43 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −39.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.1%+2.1
n=14 · A/E 1.67 · £1 −10.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.0
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.0
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.7%+1.7
n=15 · A/E 2.30 · £1 +2.00
When favourite
37.5%
n=8 · A/E 1.63 · £1 +1.60
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.9%−3.1
n=104 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −98.40
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 8-14-day break 15.2% vs 5% · n=33
With claiming riders up 1.9% vs 5% · n=104
On Good going 2.3% vs 5% · n=44
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 2.3% vs 5% · n=44
Over 1m5f – 2m 2.3% vs 5% · n=43
In Hurdle races 2.7% vs 5% · n=73
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 75 5 6.7% +46.50
Hurdle 73 2 2.7% −52.00
Chase 20 2 10% −14.40
NH Flat 11 0 0% −11.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 44 1 2.3% −27.00
Soft 41 2 4.9% −20.50
Heavy 39 2 5.1% −32.90
Standard (AW) 27 4 14.8% +77.50
Good to Soft 18 0 0% −18.00
Good to Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 27 4 14.8% +77.50
Clonmel 16 2 12.5% −9.90
Thurles 12 0 0% −12.00
Tramore 11 1 9.1% −7.50
Cork 10 0 0% −10.00
Galway 9 0 0% −9.00
Punchestown 9 0 0% −9.00
Limerick 9 0 0% −9.00
Listowel 8 0 0% −8.00
Fairyhouse 7 0 0% −7.00
Gowran Park 7 0 0% −7.00
Ballinrobe 6 0 0% −6.00
Tipperary 6 0 0% −6.00
Naas 6 0 0% −6.00
Curragh 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 11 4 36.4% 1.58 +1.60
2nd–3rd fav 4 0 0% 0.00 −4.00
4th–6th fav 26 1 3.8% 0.66 −16.50
7th+ in betting 138 4 2.9% 1.52 −12.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Drish Melody (IRE)then Thomas Cooper 21 2 3 24 Mar 24
Willywampus (IRE)then Eamon Courtney 20 0 3 26 Nov 22
Eye Contact (GB) 13 0 2 3 Sep 26
First Touch (IRE)from W J Burke 10 2 3 3 Jun 24
Only You Norah (IRE) 8 0 0 19 Jan 25
Dodie Baby (IRE) 8 0 0 2 Nov 22
Drish Venture (IRE)then Z Koplik 8 2 4 5 Feb 21
Drish Hero (IRE)then D Donovan 7 1 1 28 May 21
Pumbaa (IRE)from James Joseph Mangan · then Andrew Slattery 7 2 2 18 Apr 17
Beechfield (IRE) 6 0 1 17 Apr 25
Drish Samphire (IRE)then Lawrence Mullaney 6 0 0 10 Jan 25
Glenvara Lady (IRE) 6 0 0 6 Apr 23
All 36 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 36 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from E J O'Grady (2) and Myles Coughlan (2); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for Andrew Slattery (2) and Miss Sharon Dunphy (2); 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
90008000512512
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Joe Doyle 15 2 13.3% +53.00
Frank Hayes 12 0 0% −12.00
Gary Halpin 11 0 0% −11.00
Seamie Heffernan 7 1 14.3% +34.00
Ben Coen 7 1 14.3% −4.00
Donal McInerney 6 2 33.3% +15.00
Trevor Ryan 6 0 0% −6.00
Niall Moore 5 0 0% −5.00
Brian O'Connell 5 0 0% −5.00
Aidan Kelly 5 0 0% −5.00
Liam Quinlan 5 0 0% −5.00
Mr Damien Skehan 5 0 0% −5.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
9
Archived wins
£91,791
Prize money
2021
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Pumbaa (IRE) — Prior Park Service Station Clonmel Handicap Chase Clonmel · Nov 2014
£10,695
First Touch (IRE) — www.grahamnorris.com Memorial Handicap Hurdle Clonmel · Oct 2021
£8,555
Drish Melody (IRE) — Killarney Park Hotel Handicap (47-70) Killarney · Oct 2022
£6,490
Notable horses
Drish Melody (IRE) First Touch (IRE) Drish Venture (IRE) Pumbaa (IRE) Drish Hero (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Galileo Gold (GB) 9.5% · 2–21
Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,044 runs since 2021 (174 horses).
Zoffany (IRE) 0% · 0–20
Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,780 runs since 2015 (799 horses).
Expert Eye (GB) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,213 runs since 2022 (197 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 13.1% from 406.
Mull Of Kintyre (GB) 20% · 2–10
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,880 runs since 2014 (789 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Make Believe (GB) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,628 runs since 2019 (298 horses).
Mehmas (IRE) 25% · 2–8
Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,229 runs since 2020 (753 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 181 · newest first

The latest 50 of 181 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 31 August 2005 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) James Anthony (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 100/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) James Anthony (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 125/1
13 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Knockcurra Dream (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Stakes6.5f · Yielding · 15 ran 11th 250/1
03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Hakuna Suala (IRE)J: Mr D Doyle Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race19f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 10th 80/1
03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Eye Contact (GB)J: Alan O'Sullivan Clarke's Bar Mullingar Handicap Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 8th 7/1
22 Aug 26 Curragh (IRE) Knockcurra Dream (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Coolmore Stud St Mark's Basilica Irish EBF Maiden7f · Good · 16 ran 14th 200/1
20 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Eye Contact (GB)J: Conor Stone-Walsh GMIB Handicap Hurdle17f · Good · 10 ran 6th 9/1
03 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Eye Contact (GB)J: Joshua Halford Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle18f · Good · 18 ran 2nd 7/1
21 Jul 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Eye Contact (GB)J: Alan O'Sullivan BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap Hurdle17.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 14/1
11 Jul 26 Limerick Eye Contact (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Panoramic Restaurant At Limerick Racecourse Apprentice Handicap (0-60)12.5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 12/1
14 Jun 26 Downpatrick Eye Contact (GB)J: Alan O'Sullivan Randox Maiden Hurdle19f · Good · 14 ran 6th 16/1
25 May 26 Ballinrobe Eye Contact (GB)J: Alan O'Sullivan McHale ProPel Hurdle18.5f · Good · 8 ran 4th 300/1
15 Dec 25 Naas Eye Contact (GB)J: Ryan Treacy BAR 1 Betting Merry Christmas Maiden Hurdle19f · Soft To Heavy · 20 ran 19th 200/1
27 Nov 25 Thurles Eye Contact (GB)J: Ryan Treacy Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 12th 80/1
02 Oct 25 Bellewstown Eye Contact (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan SIS Supporting Irish Racing Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)12.5f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 50/1
22 Sep 25 Listowel Eye Contact (GB)J: Killian Leonard Eric Browne Memorial Maiden11f · Heavy · 12 ran 10th 400/1
11 Sep 25 Clonmel Eye Contact (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Slievenamon Maiden9.5f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 9th 150/1
17 Apr 25 Clonmel Beechfield (IRE)J: Liam Quinlan Knocklofty Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran PU 28/1
19 Jan 25 Thurles Only You Norah (IRE)J: Niall Moore Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 7 ran 5th 50/1
10 Jan 25 Dundalk (AW) Drish Samphire (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton Irishinjuredjockeys.com Apprentice Handicap6f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Donal Commins's strike rate?
Donal Commins has won 9 of 179 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Donal Commins in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Donal Commins's Fair A/E?
1.22, from 179 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 7 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).