What is Donald Whillans's strike rate?

Donald Whillans has won 116 of 1,311 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Donald Whillans do best at?

Ayr by strike rate: 34 wins from 210 runners (16.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Donald Whillans?

Callum Whillans, with 522 runners since 2008 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 46 (8.8%).

Is Donald Whillans in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Donald Whillans's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 1,306 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Donald Whillans

1,311 runners in the lifetime window · 119 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 6 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

116–1,311

Wins / Runs

8.8%

Strike rate

n=1,311

366 (28%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=1,306 · 0.86 incl. margin

−365.95

£1 level stake

n=1,311 at SP · −27.9%

£941k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,311 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 25.6% when favourite Callum Whillans: 8.8% from 522 Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Ayr (16.2%, n=210), clear of the yard's 8.8% baseline. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 4.4% (n=45, Fair A/E 0.73). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −143.88 to a £1 stake over 352 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Callum Whillans rides 40% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.8%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (30.3%, n=33). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 3.4% over 145 runners, 5.4pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Pallas Lord (IRE) — 10 wins from 69 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.8%−4.0

n=352 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −143.88

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−8.8

n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00

Debutants · first career start

6.3%−2.5

n=80 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +41.83

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.4%−4.4

n=45 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −31.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

6.7%−2.1

n=30 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −13.00

When favourite

25.6%

n=82 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −20.20

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.8%−1.0

n=758 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −161.37

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.8

n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 30.3% vs 8.8% · n=33

At Ayr 16.2% vs 8.8% · n=210

On last-time-out winners 16.4% vs 8.8% · n=110

With C&D winners 15% vs 8.8% · n=173

With Craig Nichol 14.5% vs 8.8% · n=159

Off a 61-180-day break 3.4% vs 8.8% · n=145

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 782 72 9.2% −168.71

Flat 218 18 8.3% −124.02

NH Flat 157 10 6.4% −8.42

Chase 154 16 10.4% −64.80

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 410 39 9.5% −150.00

Good to Soft 257 21 8.2% −69.42

Good 250 12 4.8% −59.67

Heavy 221 30 13.6% +32.41

Standard (AW) 91 9 9.9% −59.02

Good to Firm 82 5 6.1% −60.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ayr 210 34 16.2% +72.91

Kelso 178 11 6.2% −93.04

Carlisle 150 7 4.7% −77.12

Newcastle 143 16 11.2% −15.84

Hexham 143 13 9.1% −68.67

Musselburgh 100 9 9% +57.00

Perth 94 3 3.2% −78.17

Newcastle (AW) 88 9 10.2% −56.02

Sedgefield 56 6 10.7% −13.50

Wetherby 30 2 6.7% −22.00

Hamilton 24 0 0% −24.00

Catterick 22 3 13.6% +7.50

Aintree 19 0 0% −19.00

Haydock 17 1 5.9% −11.00

Doncaster 10 1 10% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 518 46 8.9% −130.79

Class 5 401 36 9% −90.22

Class 6 206 17 8.3% −119.27

Class 3 137 14 10.2% −22.17

Class 2 44 3 6.8% +1.50

Class 1 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 101 28 27.7% 1.06 −8.37

2nd–3rd fav 268 48 17.9% 1.10 +0.42

4th–6th fav 401 31 7.7% 1.06 −33.00

7th+ in betting 541 9 1.7% 0.55 −325.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 398 33 8.3% −135.09

2m5f – 3m 327 33 10.1% −65.79

1m5f – 2m 319 29 9.1% −17.55

6f – 7f 94 8 8.5% −55.75

Over 3m 70 6 8.6% −26.00

1m – 1m1f 52 6 11.5% −18.77

1m2f – 1m4f 44 1 2.3% −40.00

Under 6f 7 0 0% −7.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 71 3 4.2% −37.00

2009 78 4 5.1% −44.50

2010 73 4 5.5% −25.50

2011 82 4 4.9% +25.50

2012 79 5 6.3% −50.63

2013 65 6 9.2% +3.25

2014 52 6 11.5% −16.75

2015 51 6 11.8% −20.62

2016 42 5 11.9% +35.25

2017 65 3 4.6% −37.50

2018 59 13 22% +45.75

2019 53 4 7.5% −27.17

2020 59 5 8.5% −24.21

2021 75 3 4% −53.67

2022 78 8 10.3% −39.32

2023 81 8 9.9% −21.50

2024 68 14 20.6% +6.92

2025 94 6 6.4% −57.25

2026 86 9 10.5% −27.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 895 94 10.5% −174.20

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 448 50 11.2% −54.41

11-13 runners 395 26 6.6% −116.86

5-7 runners 253 30 11.9% −101.68

14-16 runners 152 4 2.6% −98.50

17+ runners 47 4 8.5% +6.50

2-4 runners 16 2 12.5% −1.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.7% completed · 936 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 154 73.4% 7 5 28 0 1

Hurdle 782 87% 14 10 77 1 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pallas Lord (IRE)from Brian Ellison 69 10 26 6 Nov 26

Shoeshine Boy (IRE) 42 7 19 22 Oct 26

Bollin Fiona (GB)from Tim Easterby 40 2 13 12 Jul 15

See My Baby Jive (GB) 38 3 10 14 Jan 25

Snapping Turtle (IRE) 37 4 15 29 Mar 17

Sam Patch (GB) 34 1 9 13 Mar 14

Naturalia (GB)from Rae Guest 32 3 12 4 Nov 26

Nights In Venice (GB) 30 2 12 31 Oct 26

Hawaii Klass (GB) 28 3 6 3 Oct 14

Leith Walk (IRE) 28 2 9 21 Feb 13

Harry Flashman (GB)then Greg Aitken 27 4 12 29 May 12

Hartforth (GB)from James Bethell 26 5 10 2 Jan 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 119 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tim Easterby (3) and Bruce Mactaggart (2); 46 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 56 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 6

Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

121112966640679

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCallum Whillans

40% of all rides
8.8% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Callum Whillans 522 46 8.8% −26.51

Craig Nichol 159 23 14.5% +2.21

Garry Whillans 105 5 4.8% −49.50

Jason Hart 44 7 15.9% −11.87

Callum Bewley 37 2 5.4% −23.17

Wilson Renwick 36 3 8.3% −9.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

128

Archived wins

£1.00m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 14 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Keyboard Gangster (IRE) — Totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Kelso · Apr 2018 · Class 2

£25,024

Bollin Matilda (GB) — Racing Post+ Ultimate Go North Brindisi Breeze Hurdle Series Final (Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Mar 2026 · Class 2

£20,812

Both Barrels (GB) — bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Kelso · Feb 2026 · Class 2

£15,609

Notable horses

Pallas Lord (IRE) Shoeshine Boy (IRE) Harry Flashman (GB) Hartforth (GB) Shades Of Midnight (GB) Stainsby Girl (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 12.2% · 10–82

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,990 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.

Silver Patriarch (IRE) 2.7% · 2–75

Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,609 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.3% from 274. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.3% from 300.

Midnight Legend (GB) 13.7% · 7–51

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Gamut (IRE) 11.4% · 5–44

Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,839 runs since 2010 (172 horses).

Valirann (FR) 16.7% · 7–42

Progeny have won 10.1% of 1,457 runs since 2018 (161 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 6.9% from 350.

Beneficial (GB) 13.2% · 5–38

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,047 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,464 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,464 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 January 2005 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Pallas Lord (IRE)J: Sean Kirrane All-Weather Championship Season 14 Has Begun Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 50/1

04 Nov 26 Musselburgh Naturalia (GB)J: Andrew Mullen Burton Roofing Merchants Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 12.5f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 9/2

31 Oct 26 Ayr Bollin Matilda (GB)J: Murray Dodd Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 11th 5/1

31 Oct 26 Ayr Melbourne Ghost (IRE)J: Craig Nichol Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 6th 20/1

31 Oct 26 Ayr Nights In Venice (GB)J: Murray Dodd Bsb Structural Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 9th 10/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Pallas Lord (IRE)J: Jason Hart AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 18/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 3rd 25/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Shoeshine Boy (IRE)J: Craig Nichol Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 12th 33/1

12 Oct 26 Musselburgh Pallas Lord (IRE)J: Greg Fairley Musselburgh Members Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 80/1

08 Oct 26 Ayr Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer Stella Artois Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 12 ran 4th 15/2

03 Oct 26 Redcar Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer Prohibition Bar Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 4th 8/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Lazy In Red (GB)J: Greg Fairley Aalberts Integrated Piping Systems Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 300/1

30 Sep 26 Musselburgh Pallas Lord (IRE)J: Jason Hart Invades Day Party Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 40/1

29 Sep 26 Ayr Runninman (IRE)J: Andrew Mullen Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Heavy · 11 ran 11th 80/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Runninman (IRE)J: Aiden Brookes Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 40/1

09 Sep 26 Carlisle Runninman (IRE)J: Greg Fairley Quickstep Supporting Andersons Autumn Flooring Offers Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 11th 50/1

09 Sep 26 Carlisle Lazy In Red (GB)J: Greg Fairley Lpd Maiden Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 11f · Good · 12 ran 10th 400/1

04 Sep 26 Haydock Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer Betfair Supports Racing Welfare Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11.5f · Heavy · 12 ran 8th 10/1

26 Aug 26 Catterick Runninman (IRE)J: Aiden Brookes Celebrate National Racehorse Week Classified StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 13 ran 5th 66/1

19 Aug 26 Carlisle Runninman (IRE)J: Aiden Brookes North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 22 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 31 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Donald Whillans's strike rate?: Donald Whillans has won 116 of 1,311 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Donald Whillans do best at?: Ayr by strike rate: 34 wins from 210 runners (16.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Donald Whillans?: Callum Whillans, with 522 runners since 2008 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 46 (8.8%).
Is Donald Whillans in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Donald Whillans's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 1,306 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.