What is Mary Ellen Doyle's strike rate?

Mary Ellen Doyle has won 6 of 128 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Is Mary Ellen Doyle in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Mary Ellen Doyle's Fair A/E?

1.05, from 128 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Mary Ellen Doyle

128 runners in the lifetime window · 36 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

6–128

Wins / Runs

4.7%

Strike rate

n=128

22 (17%)

Placed

1.05

Fair A/E

n=128 · 0.85 incl. margin

+16.38

£1 level stake

n=128 at SP · +12.8%

£83,438

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05).

Deterministic profile computed from 128 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 5%

The read

The yard also reads well over 2m1f – 2m4f (9.4%, n=53). The market has also underrated the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 1.53 across 73 runners (6.8% strike, +56.38 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly off a 15-30-day break — 0% over 33 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

7.7%+3.0

n=26 · A/E 1.54 · £1 +2.88

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.5%+7.8

n=8 · A/E 1.55 · £1 −5.12

Debutants · first career start

3.6%−1.1

n=28 · A/E 0.99 · £1 +1.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

12.5%+7.8

n=8 · A/E 4.76 · £1 +59.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−4.7

n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

When favourite

50%

n=2 · A/E 2.13 · £1 +0.88

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5%+0.3

n=100 · A/E 1.10 · £1 +39.88

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−4.7

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 9.4% vs 4.7% · n=53

Off a 15-30-day break 0% vs 4.7% · n=33

Over 1m5f – 2m 2.2% vs 4.7% · n=45

In Hurdle races 6.8% vs 4.7% · n=73

On Good going 5.5% vs 4.7% · n=55 · A/E 1.30

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 73 5 6.8% +56.38

Flat 25 0 0% −25.00

NH Flat 16 1 6.3% −1.00

Chase 14 0 0% −14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 55 3 5.5% +45.50

Soft 34 1 2.9% −8.00

Good to Soft 29 1 3.4% −14.00

Heavy 9 1 11.1% −6.12

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wexford 19 2 10.5% −1.12

Cork 12 1 8.3% +17.00

Punchestown 11 1 9.1% −6.50

Limerick 11 0 0% −11.00

Clonmel 9 0 0% −9.00

Kilbeggan 9 1 11.1% +58.00

Tipperary 8 0 0% −8.00

Gowran Park 7 0 0% −7.00

Down Royal 5 0 0% −5.00

Bellewstown 5 0 0% −5.00

Killarney 5 0 0% −5.00

Listowel 5 0 0% −5.00

Ballinrobe 4 0 0% −4.00

Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00

Tramore 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 4 1 25% 1.10 −1.12

2nd–3rd fav 9 1 11.1% 0.83 −4.50

4th–6th fav 22 0 0% 0.00 −22.00

7th+ in betting 93 4 4.3% 1.98 +44.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.8% completed · 87 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 14 64.3% 1 1 3 0 0

Hurdle 73 86.3% 2 1 6 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Francois (FR)from F Rohaut 27 1 6 2 May 25

Uppertown Mya (IRE)then Eoin Christopher McCarthy 11 0 1 21 Jul 22

Cant Catch Camacho (IRE) 10 0 1 15 Jan 24

Diamond Approach (IRE) 9 0 1 14 Oct 25

Kodihill (IRE) 8 0 1 24 Aug 23

Maska Du Morvan (FR)then Tim Vaughan 6 0 0 1 Jul 22

Impakt St Georges (FR) 5 0 0 5 Aug 24

Whatdoyawanttoknow (IRE) 5 1 1 29 Apr 23

Pretty Company (IRE)then Sean Thomas Doyle 4 0 0 29 Aug 23

Haddock De Grissay (FR) 4 0 0 19 Aug 22

Master Splinter (IRE) 3 0 1 7 Jul 23

Florello Girl (IRE) 3 0 0 23 Aug 22

All 36 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 36 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 28 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard; 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

00200709000014

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

RiderRWSR£1

Mr B Dunleavy 21 2 9.5% −3.12

Gearoid Brouder 14 1 7.1% +53.00

John Shinnick 11 0 0% −11.00

Mr S J Butler 8 0 0% −8.00

Rory Cleary 8 0 0% −8.00

Liam Quinlan 8 1 12.5% +21.00

Mr John James O'Neill 7 0 0% −7.00

Sarah Kavanagh 6 0 0% −6.00

Conor Stone-Walsh 5 0 0% −5.00

Jack Foley 5 1 20% +21.00

Donagh Meyler 4 1 25% +0.50

Richard Condon 3 0 0% −3.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

Archived wins

£83,438

Prize money

2024

Best season · 2 wins

Demandrivingdouvan (IRE) — Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle Wexford · Mar 2023

£11,800

Francois (FR) — Ladbrokes Extra Places On Racing Every Day Hurdle Punchestown · May 2022

£10,915

Howyabud (IRE) — Savills Maiden Hurdle Leopardstown · Dec 2021

£8,850

Notable horses

Francois (FR) Whatdoyawanttoknow (IRE) Howyabud (IRE) Joecooker (FR) If Any Man Can (IRE) Demandrivingdouvan (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Muhtathir (GB) 3.7% · 1–27

Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,719 runs since 2008 (494 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.9% from 967.

Jeremy (USA) 0% · 0–11

Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,725 runs since 2011 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.

Camacho (GB) 0% · 0–10

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,325 runs since 2009 (596 horses).

Masked Marvel (GB) 10% · 1–10

Progeny have won 15.5% of 1,637 runs since 2019 (266 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 20.2% from 287.

Diamond Boy (FR) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 11.9% of 2,294 runs since 2016 (287 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 0% · 0–8

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,598 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 128 · newest first

The latest 50 of 128 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 24 March 2021 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Ruthless Rebel (IRE)J: Mr B Dunleavy racingtv.com/freetrial Flat Race16.5f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 40/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Tullyhill (FR)J: J M Sheridan WTW Willis Towers Watson Maiden14f · Yielding · 12 ran 10th 25/1

26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Tullyhill (FR)J: Mr S J Butler M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran PU 150/1

23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Moses Sport (FR)J: Mr S J Butler Save The Date Ladies Day At Wexford Races Friday 7th August Flat Race16.5f · Good · 14 ran 13th 50/1

10 Jul 26 Cork Mind Eraser (GB)J: Mr S J Butler Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle24f · Good · 11 ran PU 28/1

29 May 26 Tramore Ice Breeze Baby (IRE)J: J J Slevin Success Days At Kilbarry Lodge Stud Mares Maiden Hurdle21.5f · Good · 10 ran 4th 80/1

14 Oct 25 Punchestown Diamond Approach (IRE)J: John Shinnick William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 11th 18/1

24 Sep 25 Listowel Diamond Approach (IRE)J: John Shinnick Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-100)18f · Yielding · 15 ran 8th 14/1

04 Jul 25 Wexford I Give Theorders (IRE)J: Mr B Dunleavy Omnipro Flat Race17f · Good · 14 ran 13th 14/1

02 Jun 25 Listowel Not Now Rodney (IRE)J: Mr S J Butler Beasley Engineering Hunters Chase24f · Good · 15 ran UR 80/1

02 Jun 25 Listowel Diamond Approach (IRE)J: John Shinnick Southern Waste Management Mares Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 20/1

14 May 25 Tipperary Intenzo (FR)J: John Shinnick Tipperary Town Maiden Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 13th 9/1

02 May 25 Punchestown Ciel De Neige (FR)J: Mr B Dunleavy Event Power Champion Hunters Chase24.5f · Yielding · 14 ran PU 66/1

02 May 25 Punchestown Francois (FR)J: Mr S J Butler Event Power Champion Hunters Chase24.5f · Yielding · 14 ran PU 100/1

17 Apr 25 Clonmel Diamond Approach (IRE)J: John Shinnick Botanica International Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 9th 28/1

17 Mar 25 Wexford Diamond Approach (IRE)J: John Shinnick Wexford Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 10th 14/1

13 Feb 25 Clonmel Diamond Approach (IRE)J: John Shinnick Surehaul Race Day Mares Maiden Hurdle19f · Soft · 18 ran 10th 40/1

03 Dec 24 Clonmel Diamond Approach (IRE)J: Mr S J Butler ClonmelRaces.ie (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)19.5f · Yielding · 18 ran F 100/1

19 Nov 24 Limerick Diamond Approach (IRE)J: Miss J Townend Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Yielding · 11 ran 4th 20/1

12 Nov 24 Fairyhouse Tracking Treasure (IRE)J: Mr B Dunleavy Fairyhouse Point-To-Point Flat Race16f · Good · 7 ran 7th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mary Ellen Doyle's strike rate?: Mary Ellen Doyle has won 6 of 128 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mary Ellen Doyle in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mary Ellen Doyle's Fair A/E?: 1.05, from 128 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.