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Trainer profile

Miss Tara Lee Cogan

193 runners in the lifetime window · 45 individual horses
As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 64 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
7–193
Wins / Runs
3.6%
Strike rate
n=193
26 (14%)
Placed
0.70
Fair A/E
n=193 · 0.56 incl. margin
−139.00
£1 level stake
n=193 at SP · −72.0%
£86,765
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.70).

Deterministic profile computed from 193 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 4%
The read

The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 47 runners, 3.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.35 across 69 runners (1.4% strike, −58.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.6%+0.0
n=55 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −37.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.6
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.6
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.6
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.6
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=9 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4%+0.4
n=99 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −73.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 3.6% · n=47
With horses switching code 0% vs 3.6% · n=31
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 6% vs 3.6% · n=50
In Hurdle races 1.4% vs 3.6% · n=69
On Good going 6.1% vs 3.6% · n=33
Off a 15-30-day break 1.9% vs 3.6% · n=53 · A/E 0.38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 92 4 4.3% −60.25
Hurdle 69 1 1.4% −58.00
NH Flat 19 2 10.5% −7.75
Chase 13 0 0% −13.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 83 2 2.4% −60.00
Heavy 41 1 2.4% −34.50
Good 33 2 6.1% −21.75
Good to Soft 17 0 0% −17.00
Standard (AW) 11 1 9.1% −8.75
Good to Firm 6 1 16.7% +5.00
Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Fairyhouse 19 0 0% −19.00
Punchestown 16 0 0% −16.00
Gowran Park 15 1 6.7% −4.00
Clonmel 15 0 0% −15.00
Leopardstown 13 0 0% −13.00
Curragh 12 1 8.3% −5.50
Listowel 10 0 0% −10.00
Dundalk (AW) 9 0 0% −9.00
Naas 9 0 0% −9.00
Cork 7 0 0% −7.00
Tipperary 6 1 16.7% +9.00
Galway 6 0 0% −6.00
Downpatrick 6 1 16.7% −2.75
Sligo 6 1 16.7% +2.00
Down Royal 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 6 3 1 33.3% −0.75
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 11 3 27.3% 1.26 +1.00
2nd–3rd fav 15 0 0% 0.00 −15.00
4th–6th fav 40 4 10% 1.58 +2.00
7th+ in betting 127 0 0% 0.00 −127.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Bobby Jean (IRE) 35 3 10 19 May 21
Schindler's Pearl (IRE)from G C Foley 16 2 5 10 Mar 13
Kalaroun (IRE)from M Halford · then Conor O'Dwyer 14 0 1 13 Jul 23
Oiche Maith (IRE) 9 1 3 22 Feb 15
Golden Goose (IRE) 8 1 1 15 Jun 25
Ali's Girl (IRE) 8 0 0 9 Mar 19
Lucky Out (IRE)from Thomas Mullins 7 0 0 22 Sep 25
Inveterate (IRE)from John James Feane 6 0 0 17 Jan 23
Battle Frontier (IRE)from Mark John Scallan 6 0 1 12 May 22
Orsera (IRE)from Peter Chapple-Hyam 5 0 0 16 Nov 20
The Persuasionist (IRE) 5 0 0 21 Aug 12
Hitak (FR)from Miss Ellmarie Holden · then John Joseph Hanlon 4 0 1 27 Feb 25
All 45 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 45 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Joseph Hanlon (11) and G C Foley (2); 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

18 have since run for another yard, most often for John Joseph Hanlon (14); 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0087145005000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderTom Madden
19% of all rides
5.4% SR · A/E 1.06
RiderRWSR£1
Tom Madden 37 2 5.4% −22.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→
7
Archived wins
£86,765
Prize money
2015
Best season · 2 wins
Bobby Jean (IRE) — Hyundai Santa Fe Handicap Sligo · May 2018
£9,240
Bobby Jean (IRE) — Pg Duffy & Sons Citroen Handicap Curragh · May 2015
£7,590
Schindler's Pearl (IRE) — Inistioge Maiden Hurdle Gowran Park · Jun 2009
£7,256
Notable horses
Bobby Jean (IRE) Schindler's Pearl (IRE) Oiche Maith (IRE) Golden Goose (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Jeremy (USA) 8.6% · 3–35
Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,725 runs since 2011 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.
Oscar Schindler (IRE) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 7.1% of 718 runs since 2008 (82 horses).
Starspangledbanner (AUS) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,235 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,200.
Clodovil (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 9.7% of 6,514 runs since 2008 (415 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 13.5% from 155.
Bravefoot (GB) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 4.8% of 248 runs since 2008 (30 horses).
Indian River (FR) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 11.2% of 1,381 runs since 2008 (99 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 8% from 224.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 193 · newest first

The latest 50 of 193 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 February 2008 to 11 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Armillary (IRE)J: Harry Sexton Burke's Clonbur 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 13th 66/1
01 Jun 26 Listowel Heartbreak Weather (IRE)J: Mr T Walsh Beasley Engineering Hunters Chase23.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 3rd 16/1
01 May 26 Punchestown Heartbreak Weather (IRE)J: Mr T Walsh Stanley Asphalt Hunters Chase For The Bishopscourt Cup20f · Yielding · 13 ran F 6/1
28 Jan 26 Dundalk (AW) Turners Cross (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Join Us On Instagram At dundalk_stadium Handicap6f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 28/1
22 Sep 25 Listowel Lucky Out (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Visit Millennium Machinery Open House Exhibition 9th - 11th October Handicap8f · Heavy · 15 ran 8th 33/1
09 Sep 25 Galway Lucky Out (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Galway Handicap7f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 11/1
02 Aug 25 Galway Lucky Out (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Ardilaun Hotel Handicap7f · Yielding · 15 ran 6th 40/1
27 Jun 25 Curragh Lucky Out (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan James Nolan's Bar Kildare Town Handicap8f · Good · 20 ran 16th 100/1
19 Jun 25 Leopardstown Lucky Out (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Bulmers Live At Leopardstown Handicap7f · Good · 16 ran 15th 40/1
15 Jun 25 Gowran Park Golden Goose (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Golf Club Handicap (0-60)8f · Soft · 15 ran 10th 66/1
30 May 25 Carlisle Golden Goose (IRE)J: Connor Beasley Andersons - Serving The Community Since 1888 Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 6th 9/4F
29 Mar 25 Curragh Lucky Out (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Tote.ie Handicap12f · Soft · 18 ran 17th 33/1
01 Mar 25 Southwell (AW) Golden Goose (IRE)J: Rossa Ryan Extra Winnings With BetUK Acca Club Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 5/4F
01 Mar 25 Navan Getaway King (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Flyingbolt Novice Chase (Grade 3)16f · Heavy · 4 ran 4th 200/1
28 Feb 25 Southwell (AW) Lucky Out (IRE)J: Cieren Fallon Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 5 ran 4th 12/1
27 Feb 25 Clonmel Hitak (FR)J: Paddy Hanlon Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle19f · Heavy · 17 ran 5th 10/3
24 Feb 25 Punchestown Topgun Simmy (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Book Your Group Deal Today Handicap Hurdle25f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 11/1
24 Feb 25 Punchestown Sir Carnegie (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle20f · Heavy · 10 ran 7th 250/1
24 Feb 25 Punchestown Quantum Leap (GB)J: Paddy Hanlon 50,000 Euros BetVictor Graduation Bonus Series Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16.5f · Heavy · 12 ran 9th 80/1
22 Feb 25 Fairyhouse Real Empire (GB)J: Ryan Treacy Tote, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle20f · Soft · 23 ran 12th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Miss Tara Lee Cogan's strike rate?
Miss Tara Lee Cogan has won 7 of 193 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.6% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Miss Tara Lee Cogan's Fair A/E?
0.70, from 193 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 14 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).