Skip to content
Trainer profile

Nerys Dutfield

240 runners in the lifetime window · 33 individual horses
As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2013
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
10–240
Wins / Runs
4.2%
Strike rate
n=240
40 (17%)
Placed
0.69
Fair A/E
n=238 · 0.65 incl. margin
−137.00
£1 level stake
n=240 at SP · −57.1%
£52,164
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 40 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.69).

Deterministic profile computed from 240 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fired May–Jun Fresh horses: 5.3% Jack Mitchell: 13.6% from 59 Claiming riders: 5%
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −64.50 to a £1 stake over 139 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Jack Mitchell rode 25% of the entries and beats the yard's average (13.6% vs 4.2%, A/E 1.52) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well over 6f – 7f (8.9%, n=56) and off a break of 180+ days (7.9%, n=38). The record read poorly in Hurdle races — 0% over 69 runners, 4.2pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Bold Argument (IRE) — 5 wins from 47 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.3%+1.1
n=57 · A/E 1.38 · £1 −36.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.2
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
20%
n=5 · A/E 0.91 · £1 +0.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5%+0.8
n=139 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −64.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Jack Mitchell 13.6% vs 4.2% · n=59
Over 6f – 7f 8.9% vs 4.2% · n=56
In Hurdle races 0% vs 4.2% · n=69
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 0% vs 4.2% · n=39
With Owyn Nelmes 0% vs 4.2% · n=30
Off a break of 180+ days 7.9% vs 4.2% · n=38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 155 10 6.5% −52.00
Hurdle 69 0 0% −69.00
NH Flat 15 0 0% −15.00
Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm 72 3 4.2% −50.00
Good 61 3 4.9% −40.00
Standard (AW) 58 3 5.2% −4.00
Good to Soft 17 0 0% −17.00
Soft 16 0 0% −16.00
Heavy 9 0 0% −9.00
Firm 7 1 14.3% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW) 32 1 3.1% −21.00
Salisbury 28 2 7.1% −13.50
Bath 23 0 0% −23.00
Newton Abbot 20 0 0% −20.00
Lingfield (AW) 17 1 5.9% −8.00
Wincanton 16 0 0% −16.00
Exeter 10 0 0% −10.00
Nottingham 9 3 33.3% +10.50
Chepstow 9 0 0% −9.00
Southwell (AW) 7 1 14.3% +27.00
Stratford 7 0 0% −7.00
Brighton 7 0 0% −7.00
Taunton 7 0 0% −7.00
Windsor 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Hereford 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 92 5 5.4% −29.50
Class 5 78 3 3.8% −52.50
Class 4 64 2 3.1% −49.00
Class 3 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 8 1 12.5% 0.63 −3.00
2nd–3rd fav 29 4 13.8% 0.77 −2.50
4th–6th fav 59 4 6.8% 1.00 −21.50
7th+ in betting 144 1 0.7% 0.29 −110.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Bold Argument (IRE) 28 4 6 2 Sep 11
Raise Again (IRE)from P J Prendergast 28 0 7 6 Jun 11
Shouldntbethere (IRE)then Jo Davis 21 0 2 28 May 10
Man Of Leisure (GB)then Anthony Honeyball 20 0 10 13 Apr 13
Colonel Flay (GB) 20 3 9 26 Jul 12
Lady On Top (IRE) 16 1 1 19 Nov 12
Is It Time (IRE) 10 1 2 23 Jun 09
Present Accepted (GB)then Rod Millman 9 0 1 10 Jun 13
Charlie Be (IRE) 9 0 0 27 Apr 10
Mr Funshine (GB)then Ron Hodges 9 1 1 5 Nov 08
Peg Peg (GB) 8 0 0 7 Sep 12
Shybutwilling (IRE) 7 0 0 16 Jul 09
All 33 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 33 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 30 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard, most often for Neil Mulholland (2); 24 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0004117545000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJack Mitchell
25% of all rides
13.6% SR · A/E 1.52
RiderRWSR£1
Jack Mitchell 59 8 13.6% +24.00
Owyn Nelmes 30 0 0% −30.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
29
Archived wins
£171k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 13 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Aoninch (GB) — Stella Artois Fillies' Handicap Salisbury · Aug 2005 · Class 4
£7,155
My Gacho (IRE) — Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Feb 2005 · Class 4
£6,643
Colonel Flay (GB) — Bet On Totescoop6 At Totesport.com Handicap Nottingham · May 2009 · Class 4
£6,476
Notable horses
Bold Argument (IRE) Colonel Flay (GB) Royal Axminster (GB) Is It Time (IRE) My Gacho (IRE) Shouldntbethere (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Raise A Grand (IRE) 0% · 0–28
Progeny have won 7.5% of 811 runs since 2008 (50 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.9% from 115.
Shinko Forest (IRE) 14.3% · 4–28
Progeny have won 9.5% of 1,059 runs since 2008 (80 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.1% from 255. Weakest on Good going: 5.5% from 253.
Karinga Bay (GB) 0% · 0–26
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,407 runs since 2008 (315 horses).
Soviet Star (USA) 0% · 0–21
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,621 runs since 2008 (171 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5% from 160. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 320.
Danehill Dancer (IRE) 15% · 3–20
Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.
Oratorio (IRE) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 10.6% of 5,063 runs since 2009 (370 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.3% from 455.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 670 · newest first

The latest 50 of 670 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 10 June 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
10 Jun 13 Newton Abbot Present Accepted (GB)J: Mr Gary Derwin Paignton Zoo Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 7th 33/1
14 May 13 Wincanton Present Accepted (GB)J: James Best Jockey Club Catering Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 6th 7/2
07 May 13 Exeter Present Accepted (GB)J: James Best Farmers Friend Of Exeter Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 2nd 100/1
24 Apr 13 Taunton Present Accepted (GB)J: James Best Porter Dodson Solicitors And Advisors Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 150/1
13 Apr 13 Stratford Man Of Leisure (GB)J: James Best New Jenkinsons' Carvery At Stratford Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 22f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 3rd 6/1
16 Mar 13 Kempton Present Accepted (GB)J: Gary Derwin 32red.com Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Soft · 9 ran PU 100/1
05 Mar 13 Exeter Man Of Leisure (GB)J: Gary Derwin Weatherbys Hamilton Bloodstock Insurance Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Good · 19 ran 9th 12/1
19 Feb 13 Taunton Man Of Leisure (GB)J: James Best Family Fun Day Meeting 4th April Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Heavy · 13 ran 2nd 10/3
07 Feb 13 Taunton Man Of Leisure (GB)J: Mr Gary Derwin At The Races Sky 415 Racing Excellence 'Hands And Heels' Handicap Hurdle (Conditional/Amateur)Class 4 · 19f · Heavy · 16 ran 2nd 12/1
14 Jan 13 Plumpton Man Of Leisure (GB)J: James Best Don And Trev Eelfads Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 5/1
13 Dec 12 Taunton Present Accepted (GB)J: James Best Setsquare Recruitment Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 13 ran PU 200/1
19 Nov 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Lady On Top (IRE)J: Noel Garbutt Book Tickets Online At wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Selling StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 4 ran 4th 100/1
01 Nov 12 Lingfield (AW) Lady On Top (IRE)J: Noel Garbutt Lingfield Park Owners Group Launches Today Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 12th 40/1
28 Oct 12 Wincanton Man Of Leisure (GB)J: James Best Long Lost Family Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 21.5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 25/1
09 Oct 12 Brighton Lady On Top (IRE)J: Noel Garbutt Hardings Catering, Brighton HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 9th 40/1
26 Sep 12 Kempton (AW) Lady On Top (IRE)J: Noel Garbutt Book Your Christmas Party At Kempton Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 25/1
07 Sep 12 Brighton Peg Peg (GB)J: Noel Garbutt GBI Racing Welcomes Marathonbet.com HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 7th 50/1
09 Aug 12 Brighton Peg Peg (GB)J: Raul Da Silva Village Marquee Company Selling HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good · 12 ran 8th 80/1
26 Jul 12 Bath Colonel Flay (GB)J: Amir Quinn Visit Bath HandicapClass 6 · 13f · Firm · 12 ran F 50/1
25 Jul 12 Leicester Peg Peg (GB)J: Noel Garbutt Attheraces.com Exclusive William Buick Blog Selling StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good · 9 ran 9th 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Nerys Dutfield's strike rate?
Nerys Dutfield has won 10 of 240 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nerys Dutfield do best at?
Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 32 runners (3.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Nerys Dutfield?
Jack Mitchell, with 59 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (13.6%).
What is Nerys Dutfield's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 238 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 3 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).