Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.73).
Deterministic profile computed from 683 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 26 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Dec–MayAmie Waugh: 6.8% from 161New recruits: 4.7%Claiming riders: 5.2%
The read
Debutants struggle at 0% (n=50, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.52 and −73.88 to a £1 stake over 162 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Amie Waugh rides 24% of the entries and edges the yard's average (6.8% vs 4.2%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well beyond 3m (14.7%, n=68) and on Heavy going (9.3%, n=54). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 149 runners, 4.2pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Total Assets (GB) — 7 wins from 53 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–May.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.5%−1.7
n=162 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −73.88
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.7%+0.5
n=43 · A/E 1.66 · £1 +36.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.2
n=50 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −50.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
3.6%−0.6
n=28 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −15.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.2
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00
When favourite
26.7%
n=15 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −2.63
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.2%+1.0
n=426 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −212.59
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Beyond 3m14.7% vs 4.2% · n=68
On last-time-out winners12.9% vs 4.2% · n=31
With C&D winners11.1% vs 4.2% · n=54
Over 1m5f – 2m0% vs 4.2% · n=149
On Heavy going9.3% vs 4.2% · n=54
With horses switching code0.8% vs 4.2% · n=129
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle320144.4%−180.34
Chase183126.6%−76.63
Flat14432.1%−55.50
NH Flat3600%−36.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good24272.9%−183.25
Good to Soft15753.2%−100.50
Soft139107.2%−74.22
Standard (AW)5523.6%+27.00
Heavy5459.3%+18.50
Good to Firm3600%−36.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle7945.1%−25.50
Hexham7922.5%−63.00
Sedgefield7956.3%−38.84
Kelso7568%−19.50
Perth4424.5%−21.00
Catterick4300%−43.00
Newcastle (AW)4025%+42.00
Carlisle4012.5%−35.00
Wetherby3425.9%−2.00
Musselburgh3000%−30.00
Cartmel2129.5%−5.50
Market Rasen1516.7%−12.38
Ripon1500%−15.00
Redcar1218.3%−5.50
Hamilton1200%−12.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4274124.4%−162.42
Class 5250124.8%−139.55
Class 610532.9%−16.50
Class 34924.1%−25.00
Class 2400%−4.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite17423.5%1.02−4.63
2nd–3rd fav89910.1%0.66−41.34
4th–6th fav18463.3%0.47−128.50
7th+ in betting393102.5%1.04−174.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f19994.5%−139.72
1m5f – 2m14900%−149.00
2m5f – 3m13975%−38.00
Over 3m681014.7%+17.75
6f – 7f4412.3%+23.00
1m2f – 1m4f3825.3%−16.50
1m – 1m1f3400%−34.00
Under 6f1200%−12.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200819210.5%−1.50
20091200%−12.00
20101300%−13.00
20111800%−18.00
2012900%−9.00
20131900%−19.00
20145235.8%−17.38
20154948.2%−7.50
20166934.3%−15.00
201756712.5%−1.84
20187034.3%−52.00
20193100%−31.00
20205823.4%−45.50
20215400%−54.00
20223925.1%−27.25
20232500%−25.00
20243113.2%−22.50
20251715.9%+50.00
20264212.4%−27.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps452286.2%−129.47
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners23393.9%−58.50
8-10 runners22183.6%−149.00
5-7 runners12075.8%−93.47
14-16 runners9155.5%−29.50
17+ runners1200%−12.00
2-4 runners600%−6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 94 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Brendan Powell (4); 33 had their first archived run for this yard.
8 have since run for another yard, most often for Miss Amie Waugh (2) and Sara Ender (2); 52 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
677572003048
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
30
Archived wins
£321k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Boric (GB) — Heineken Uk Highland National Handicap Chase Perth · Apr 2017 · Class 3
£12,512
Total Assets (GB) — John Smiths Handicap Chase Hexham · Nov 2018 · Class 4
£6,923
Total Assets (GB) — totepool Follow Us On Twitter Handicap Hurdle Carlisle · Apr 2017 · Class 3
Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,630 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.5% from 349. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.5% from 384.
Progeny have won 10.4% of 5,182 runs since 2008 (401 horses).
Grape Tree Road (GB)10.5% · 4–38
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,125 runs since 2008 (142 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.6% from 109. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.1% from 264. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.7% from 322.
Milan (GB)6.3% · 2–32
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,855 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
And Beyond (IRE)0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 7.8% of 807 runs since 2008 (79 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 708 · newest first
The latest 50 of 708 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 February 2005 to 26 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Simon Waugh's strike rate?
Simon Waugh has won 29 of 683 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Simon Waugh do best at?
Kelso by strike rate: 6 wins from 75 runners (8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Simon Waugh?
Amie Waugh, with 161 runners since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (6.8%).
Is Simon Waugh in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Simon Waugh's Fair A/E?
0.73, from 679 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Simon Waugh·SR 4.2%·A/E 0.73
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