What is Luca Cumani's strike rate?

Luca Cumani has won 548 of 3,220 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 17% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Luca Cumani do best at?

Leicester by strike rate: 26 wins from 113 runners (23%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Luca Cumani?

Kieren Fallon, with 653 runners since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 124 (19%).

What is Luca Cumani's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 3,201 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Luca Cumani

3,220 runners in the lifetime window · 515 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Nov 2018 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

548–3,220

Wins / Runs

17%

Strike rate

n=3,220

1,336 (42%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=3,201 · 0.90 incl. margin

−551.37

£1 level stake

n=3,220 at SP · −17.1%

£9.63m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

14.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 290 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 17% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04). New recruits from other yards win at 30% first time out (57 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,220 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 20.9% 36.3% when favourite Kieren Fallon: 19% from 653 New recruits: 29.8% Sent off the favourite in 23% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Brighton (32.8%, n=61), clear of the yard's 17% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 29.8% (n=57, Fair A/E 1.82), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 4.5% (n=66, Fair A/E 0.39). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 20.9% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.28 and +32.00 to a £1 stake over 512 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet debutants: 5.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.68 and −156.84 to a £1 stake over 425 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Kieren Fallon rode 20% of the entries and edges the yard's average (19% vs 17%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 85 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot (Jul 2015, £689,027). The stable star of the record was Boz (GB) — 8 wins from 25 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 17% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

20.9%+3.9

n=512 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +32.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

29.8%+12.8

n=57 · A/E 1.82 · £1 +30.41

Debutants · first career start

5.6%−11.4

n=425 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −156.84

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.5%−12.5

n=66 · A/E 0.39 · £1 −50.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

23.1%+6.1

n=13 · A/E 2.15 · £1 +9.50

When favourite

36.3%

n=725 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −33.99

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10%−7.0

n=210 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −37.84

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

14.3%−2.7

n=469 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −99.24

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 17% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With debutants 5.6% vs 17% · n=425

At Brighton 32.8% vs 17% · n=61

With Ryan Moore 30.8% vs 17% · n=65

With first-time headgear 4.5% vs 17% · n=66

With new recruits 29.8% vs 17% · n=57

With Kevin Stott 3.2% vs 17% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Firm 1,050 180 17.1% −229.82

Good 825 136 16.5% −104.36

Standard (AW) 635 112 17.6% −94.42

Good to Soft 370 60 16.2% −46.93

Soft 256 41 16% −73.66

Heavy 44 10 22.7% −7.81

Firm 40 9 22.5% +5.63

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 267 45 16.9% −8.62

Newmarket 256 23 9% −102.34

Newmarket 224 27 12.1% −107.99

Doncaster 198 45 22.7% +38.96

Yarmouth 171 33 19.3% +3.01

Goodwood 154 27 17.5% −43.03

Newbury 145 30 20.7% +0.92

Haydock 143 21 14.7% −26.10

Wolverhampton (AW) 140 25 17.9% −34.99

Ascot 139 13 9.4% −85.42

Nottingham 126 22 17.5% −14.69

York 123 14 11.4% −12.50

Sandown 120 14 11.7% −51.26

Lingfield (AW) 118 23 19.5% −3.91

Leicester 113 26 23% +12.86

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,097 216 19.7% −135.16

Class 4 817 143 17.5% −159.42

Class 1 470 67 14.3% −100.24

Class 2 383 50 13.1% −31.78

Class 3 320 51 15.9% −65.63

Class 6 129 21 16.3% −55.14

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 838 289 34.5% 1.10 −37.91

2nd–3rd fav 1,047 189 18.1% 1.08 −86.46

4th–6th fav 888 50 5.6% 0.69 −369.00

7th+ in betting 447 20 4.5% 1.15 −58.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pacharana (GB) 23 7 10 10 Nov 18

Franciscan (GB)then Donald McCain 22 5 8 6 Jul 13

Mabait (GB)then David Simcock 20 7 10 10 Oct 11

Danadana (IRE) 19 5 9 24 Sep 14

Laurence (GB) 18 3 8 22 Oct 16

Jazz Master (GB) 17 2 9 8 Oct 14

Kazbow (IRE)then Chris Grant 17 4 11 8 Oct 11

Forte Dei Marmi (GB) 17 5 6 29 Aug 11

Axiom (GB)from Ed Dunlop · then Ed Walker 17 4 6 6 Nov 10

Buxted Dream (USA) 16 2 6 16 Aug 18

Start Right (GB)then Saeed bin Suroor 16 3 10 2 Jul 11

Acrostic (GB) 16 2 9 25 Sep 10

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 515 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 11 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 58 had their first archived run for this yard.

28 have since run for another yard, most often for Roger Varian (3) and Donald McCain (2); 32 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1300161519171915161633

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderKieren Fallon

20% of all rides
19% SR · A/E 1.04

RiderRWSR£1

Kieren Fallon 653 124 19% −127.40

Jamie Spencer 298 60 20.1% −12.47

Adam Kirby 244 55 22.5% −36.27

Andrea Atzeni 235 46 19.6% −9.05

Dane O'Neill 215 31 14.4% −75.88

Kirsty Milczarek 193 35 18.1% −5.78

J-P Guillambert 192 24 12.5% −18.22

Luke Morris 98 11 11.2% −41.50

Pat Cosgrave 79 14 17.7% −16.54

Ryan Moore 65 20 30.8% +28.34

William Buick 64 17 26.6% +16.82

Frankie Dettori 64 9 14.1% −33.74

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

683

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£12.1m

Prize money

2013

Best season · 69 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Postponed (IRE) — King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Ascot · Jul 2015 · Group 1

£689,027

Alkaased (USA) — Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud Saint-Cloud (FR) · Jun 2005 · Group 1

£162,099

Purple Moon (IRE) — Totesport Ebor Heritage Handicap York · Aug 2007 · Class 2

£124,640

Notable horses

Boz (GB) Pacharana (GB) Mabait (GB) Bauer (IRE) Semeen (GB) Afsare (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dubawi (IRE) 23.9% · 39–163

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,939 runs since 2008 (1,521 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Pivotal (GB) 24.2% · 37–153

Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,787 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.

Danehill Dancer (IRE) 15.5% · 22–142

Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.

Dansili (GB) 18% · 22–122

Progeny have won 13.7% of 11,842 runs since 2008 (983 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 428. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.1% from 209.

Medicean (GB) 12.3% · 13–106

Progeny have won 10.4% of 9,890 runs since 2008 (682 horses).

Oasis Dream (GB) 19.3% · 17–88

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,002 runs since 2008 (1,509 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 482. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,096 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,096 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 22 November 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

22 Nov 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Swansdown (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Ladbrokes, Bet 5 Get 20 NurseryClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 6/5F

15 Nov 18 Chelmsford City (AW) Honfleur (IRE)J: Joe Fanning Bet totetrifecta At totesport.com EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 25/1

14 Nov 18 Kempton (AW) Gracefully Done (IRE)J: Jamie Spencer 32Red Casino EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 1)Class 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 5th 11/2

10 Nov 18 Doncaster Pacharana (GB)J: Jamie Spencer Marathonbet Sportsbook British EBF Gillies Fillies' Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 10f · Soft · 14 ran 12th 16/1

06 Nov 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Alexandria (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Betway Novice StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 25/1

01 Nov 18 Lingfield (AW) Pacharana (GB)J: George Wood Ladbrokes Bet 5 Get 20 EBF Stallions River Eden Fillies' Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 13f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 20/1

01 Nov 18 Lingfield (AW) Alwaysandforever (IRE)J: Joe Fanning Ladbrokes Bet 5 Get 20 EBF Stallions River Eden Fillies' Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 13f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 7/2

30 Oct 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Avenue Foch (GB)J: Luke Morris Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost Nursery HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 5/1

30 Oct 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Konigin (GB)J: Luke Morris betyourway At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 13/2

26 Oct 18 Doncaster Coolongolook (GB)J: Jamie Spencer Matchbook Is Commission Free HandicapClass 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 20/1

26 Oct 18 Doncaster Ernest Aldrich (GB)J: Jamie Spencer Matchbook Betting Podcast EBF Maiden Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 12/1

26 Oct 18 Doncaster Gracefully Done (IRE)J: Jamie Spencer Matchbook Time To Move Over EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) (Str)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 14/1

26 Oct 18 Doncaster Prejudice (GB)J: Jamie Spencer Matchbook Betting Exchange Nursery (Str)Class 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 7/4J

24 Oct 18 Newmarket Swansdown (GB)J: Jamie Spencer British EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10)Class 3 · 8f · Good · 9 ran 9th 50/1

23 Oct 18 Newcastle (AW) Warsaw Road (IRE)J: Tony Hamilton Betway Optional Claiming HandicapClass 2 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 4/1J

23 Oct 18 Yarmouth Cafe Espresso (GB)J: Martin Harley British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 1)Class 4 · 8f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 5th 33/1

20 Oct 18 Ascot God Given (GB)J: Jamie Spencer Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)Class 1 · 12f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 20/1

17 Oct 18 Bath Alwaysandforever (IRE)J: Jamie Spencer British Stallion Studs EBF Beckford Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Listed)Class 1 · 14f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 4th 6/1

16 Oct 18 Leicester Faro Angel (IRE)J: Jamie Spencer British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10)Class 4 · 8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 7/2

15 Oct 18 Yarmouth Mythical Tribe (IRE)J: Martin Harley British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Str)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 4th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Luca Cumani's strike rate?: Luca Cumani has won 548 of 3,220 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 17% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Luca Cumani do best at?: Leicester by strike rate: 26 wins from 113 runners (23%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Luca Cumani?: Kieren Fallon, with 653 runners since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 124 (19%).
What is Luca Cumani's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 3,201 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.