1:45 Navan
This 21-runner Median Auction Maiden at Navan over 5f180y on yielding ground features a field of largely unexposed or modest 2-year-olds, most with limited experience and few having shown standout ability to date. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 56 and 41, underlining a race where unknowns abound and small margins could prove decisive. Overall the numbers point to a low-confidence event in which yard and jockey records at the track, along with how the race unfolds tactically, will carry significant weight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, suggesting a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy or well positioned will pay dividends. Most of the principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, raising the possibility that the race could develop into a sprint for the line from off the pace. The key question is whether any horse can overcome a wide draw or the drop in trip to make a telling move at the right time in what looks set to be a bunched, steadily-run contest.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1How Now KTB Selection56/100
How Now has shown little in two starts so far, finishing sixth then last of the field. The drop back from 7f to 5f180y poses a fresh question while the yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.86 from 15 runs. Both the jockey's modest 4% strike rate at the track from 123 rides with an A/E of 0.61 and the very low data confidence mean this lightly raced colt is hard to assess with any confidence. Usually held up and producing its effort late on the limited evidence available, he has two runs on yielding ground without a win or place and no course form on record. His trainer and jockey combination shows a 5/32 record with an A/E of 1.74 and positive LSP of +£12.00.
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2What's This54/100
What's This showed very little on debut over a mile. Dropping back sharply to 5f poses a fresh question for this lightly-raced 2-year-old. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 205 runs with an A/E of 0.74 while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge despite a 75% strike rate from just four attempts with an A/E of 8.07. Usually held up and producing its effort late on the limited evidence available, he has no runs on yielding ground so remains unproven on the surface and no course form on record. His trainer and jockey combination shows a 7/46 record with an A/E of 1.58 and positive LSP of +£57.33.
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3Knockraha Pa53/100
Knockraha Pa has been beaten a long way in both starts over 7f and now drops back sharply in trip to a distance he has never tried. The yard has a solid 8% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 144 runs with an A/E of 1.21 while the jockey's 4% record from 562 rides carries an A/E of 0.69. With only two runs on the board and no meaningful going or course data this is very much an unknown quantity. Usually held up and producing its effort late on the limited evidence available, he has one run on yielding ground without a win or place and no course form on record. His trainer and jockey combination shows an 11/149 record with an A/E of 1.11 and negative LSP of -£44.00.
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4Layla Belle53/100
Layla Belle showed only modest form when sixth on her sole start over 7f. She now drops back in trip to an untried 5f on yielding ground, which is simply an unknown at this stage given the small sample. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 16 runs at Navan with an A/E of 1.28 while the jockey operates at 9% from 270 rides here with an A/E of 0.73. She has one run on yielding ground without a win or place and no course form on record. Her trainer and jockey combination shows an 11/94 record with an A/E of 1.05 and negative LSP of -£13.42.
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5Better Yet52/100
Better Yet has been placed on both starts so far including when third over 5f here last time. The step up to 5f180y is an unknown and first-time headgear is now fitted. Trainer has a modest 11% strike rate at the track from a big sample of 1027 runs with an A/E of 0.84 while the jockey is operating at 10% from 42 rides here with an A/E of 1.33. Usually held up and producing its effort late on the limited evidence available, he has no runs on yielding ground so remains unproven on the surface yet has course form having finished third here. His trainer and jockey combination shows a 21/221 record with an A/E of 0.87 and negative LSP of -£32.69.
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6Hazy Sky51/100
Hazy Sky showed little at 1m on debut and now drops sharply in trip to 5f, which asks a fresh question of this lightly raced 2-year-old. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate from 203 runs at Navan with an A/E of 1.07 while jockey Nathan Crosse posts a 7% record from 181 rides here with an A/E of 0.92. With only one run on the board, a wide draw in stall 12 and one run on yielding ground without a win or place, the form is impossible to assess with any confidence.
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7Violet Dove50/100
Violet Dove has one run on the board and showed little at this trip last time. The first-time headgear is an interesting move but the yard's modest 8% strike rate at Navan from 72 runs with an A/E of 0.93 offers little encouragement. Usually held up and producing its effort late on the limited evidence available, she has one run on yielding ground without a win or place and no course form on record.
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8Red Lily49/100
Red Lily showed only modest form when fifth on debut here over this trip on soft ground. The yard has a solid 11% strike-rate at Navan from 47 runs with an A/E of 1.15 yet the jockey is operating below par with a 7% record from 746 rides with an A/E of 0.73. He has no runs on yielding ground so remains unproven on the surface and has course form having finished fifth here.
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9Lady Romagna48/100
Lady Romagna finished eighth on debut over 5f here at Navan. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate from 347 runs at the track with an A/E of 0.83 while the jockey sits at 7% from 341 rides with an A/E of 0.97. With only one run on the board, a step up in trip that asks a fresh question and no runs on yielding ground, this is a lightly-raced maiden to treat with caution.
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10On The Cat Walk47/100
On The Cat Walk is a debutant with limited public form to go on. The Noel Meade yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 1811 runs with an A/E of 0.76 while Siobhan Rutledge has shown a fair 5% strike rate here from 114 rides with an A/E of 0.93. No going data is available and there is no course win on record.
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11Buck Jones47/100
Buck Jones has only two runs behind him and showed little in either, finishing ninth then eighth. The drop back from 7f to 5f today asks a fresh question of a horse whose ability remains largely unknown. Trainer Noel Meade has a 13% strike rate from 1811 runs at Navan with an A/E of 0.76 while jockey Adam Caffrey records 8% from 93 rides here with an A/E of 1.02. He has no runs on yielding ground so remains unproven on the surface.
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12Marcescence47/100
Marcescence showed some promise when finishing third on debut here over this trip on what was his only run to date. The yard has a modest 8% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 485 runs with an A/E of 0.82 while Carroll is operating at 6% from 458 rides here with an A/E of 0.73. He has no runs on yielding ground so remains unproven on the surface yet has course form having finished third here.
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13Destiny Calls46/100
Destiny Calls has shown little in two runs at this trip so far and finished sixth of seven on her only visit to Navan. The yard holds a solid 12% strike rate here from 93 runs with an A/E of 1.19. The jockey has failed to score from 13 rides at the track with an A/E of 0 and she has one run on yielding ground without a win or place.
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14Tequila Belle46/100
Tequila Belle is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer little to go on at this trip on yielding ground. Trainer Slattery has a modest 7% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 205 runs with an A/E of 0.74 while jockey Dalton has shown an ordinary record here from 12 rides with an A/E of 1.01.
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15Zorailia46/100
Zorailia is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 340 runs at Navan with an A/E of 0.65 while the jockey has shown a solid 8% strike rate from 121 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.19. With low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background that has not been supplied.
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16Miss Mona Keeba45/100
Miss Mona Keeba is a debutant with limited public information. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Navan from a large sample of 205 runs with an A/E of 0.74 and the jockey is operating at a 5% strike rate here from 179 rides with an A/E of 0.61. Pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment today.
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17Blimey44/100
Blimey showed little on his sole start so far when finishing ninth. The yard posts a 9% strike rate at Navan from 421 runs with an A/E of 0.79 while the jockey is on 8% from 653 rides here with an A/E of 0.72. With only one run on the clock, one run on yielding ground without a win or place and no course form, the trip and ground remain open questions.
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18Always Changing44/100
Always Changing is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a solid 8% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 160 runs with an A/E of 0.88 while the jockey is operating at a modest 3% here from 129 rides with an A/E of 0.44. Pedigree and sales background will decide how much interest there is on debut.
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19Catuai44/100
Catuai showed little on debut when finishing eighth. The yard has only three runs at Navan so far which is too small a sample to judge with an A/E of 0 while jockey Reese Holohan has an 11% strike rate from 19 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.05. He has no runs on yielding ground so remains unproven on the surface.
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20Direct Action41/100
Direct Action is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has only one previous run at Navan so there is little to go on from that angle with an A/E of 0, while jockey Jamie Powell has a modest 6% strike rate from 89 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.66. With low data confidence the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background.
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21Fiery Anne41/100
Fiery Anne has shown little in two starts so far, finishing sixth then last. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 394 runs with an A/E of 0.66 offers no encouragement, while the jockey remains winless from 22 rides here with an A/E of 0. Usually held up and producing its effort late on the limited evidence available, she has no runs on yielding ground so remains unproven on the surface.
KTB verdict
How Now is the KTB Selection in a race where so many runners bring limited information to the table. He has shown little in two starts but the yard's solid record at Navan and the drop back in trip could spark improvement in a steadily-run affair that may suit his held-up style. The main dangers are Better Yet, who has placed both starts including over 5f here and now tries first-time headgear, and Marcescence, who showed some promise when third on debut here over this trip. Knockraha Pa, Layla Belle and What's This are others who could figure if the unknowns fall in their favour.
KTB Selection How Now
This is the narrative read of the 1:45 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is How Now the KTB Selection despite modest form figures of 06?
The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.86 from 15 runs, the jockey and trainer combination shows positive LSP of +£12.00, and he is lightly raced with the drop back from 7f to 5f180y posing a fresh question in a race short on established form.
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Better Yet has course form having finished third over 5f here on his most recent start.
How does the race's pace shape influence the principals?
Lacking a leader and with most principals being held-up types who produce their effort late, the steadily-run tactical affair means being handy could pay while late runners may need the race to fall right.
Which runners are trying first-time headgear?
Better Yet and Violet Dove are both fitted with first-time headgear.
What is the trainer strike rate at Navan for the yard of the selection?
The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.86 from 15 runs.
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