4:15 Naas
The 4:15 at Naas is a competitive 18-runner Beggar's End Handicap over 2m on soft ground. A field packed with useful and fair performers, many of whom have shown form at this track or trip, makes for a tactical puzzle. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the selection holding a narrow edge over two 60-rated rivals in what looks a steadily-run affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay dividends. With the vast majority of the field, including all five principals, tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question is whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough without over-racing in a field where prominent runners are scarce.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Madbadanddangerous KTB Selection62/100
Madbadanddangerous arrives as a useful performer who has already won over this course on soft ground. He drops back in trip today, which asks a fresh question after his last run over 2m1f. The Noel Meade yard holds a 13% strike rate at Naas from a big sample of 1189 runs, while Gavin Ryan brings an 11% strike rate at the track from 216 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has a strong 1 from 1 record on soft and has won here from two runs at the course. The trainer and jockey combination shows 3/43 with an A/E of 0.80.
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2Comfort Zone60/100
Comfort Zone is a useful performer with a solid record on soft ground and three wins from seven starts at this trip. He has already won at Naas from just two runs here and returns from a spell with the Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard in decent form at the track. Dropping back in distance looks a fair move after his last run over 2m1f. He has 3 wins from 8 on soft with 5 places and is usually held up, producing his effort late. The trainer and jockey show 46/265 with an A/E of 1.03.
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3Factual Fact60/100
Factual Fact is a fair performer who arrives in solid form with two wins and a second from his last five starts. He has already won on soft ground and at this trip, though he is stepping back up in distance today from his most recent run. The Henry de Bromhead yard has a 14% strike rate at Naas from 475 runs while this is his first run here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has 1 win from 2 on soft with 2 places. The trainer and jockey combination records 37/257 with an A/E of 1.06.
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4Galileo Dame58/100
Galileo Dame is a useful mare who has been running consistently at this level, finishing in the first three in three of her last four starts. She has shown she handles soft ground, being placed on 2 of 3 starts, and has placed here before though she is yet to win at Naas. Dropping back to a trip she has won over previously looks a positive. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she ran twice here for figures of 12th and 2nd. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien and Chris Hayes partnership shows 5/39 with an A/E of 1.50.
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5Abbotsford57/100
Abbotsford is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning a 1m4f handicap at Galway in July before a solid second at Listowel. He steps up to 2m for the first time today which asks a fresh question. The Dermot Weld yard has a 12% strike rate at Naas from 1288 runs while Colin Keane is aboard with a 17% strike rate at the track from 763 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has been placed once from one run on soft. The trainer and jockey show 32/205 with an A/E of 0.73.
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6Counting Coup55/100
Counting Coup is a useful performer who showed his best when winning on soft ground at this track last year. He has been in and out since, including a poor effort last time, and steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a modest 0% strike-rate from six runs at Naas.
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7Light Up The Dark53/100
Light Up The Dark is a fair performer who has won on his only previous run at Naas. He has solid soft-ground form with two wins from three starts and has won twice from three runs at this trip. Dropping back from 2m1f looks a sensible move though the wide draw in stall 15 is a clear negative.
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8Jabbar51/100
Jabbar is a fair sort who has run well at this track once before when finishing third. He drops back to a trip he has won at twice from ten attempts but recent form has been patchy and he looks vulnerable from the widest draw. The trainer has a solid 12% strike-rate at Naas from a big sample.
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9Helvic Dream50/100
Helvic Dream is a fair performer who has won on soft ground and at today's trip. He has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts and has never won or placed from four runs at Naas. The trainer's solid record at the track offers some encouragement.
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10Whimsy48/100
Whimsy is a fair handicapper with a solid recent record that includes a win last time out. He steps up in trip today having won once over this distance from 19 attempts while his record on soft ground reads a respectable two wins and five places from eight starts. The trainer operates at a 5% strike rate from 55 runs at Naas.
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11Shoda48/100
Shoda is a fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing no worse than second in four of her last five completed starts before a modest return last time. She has course experience here, finishing third on her only previous visit to Naas, and acts on soft ground with a win and two places from three runs. Dropping back in trip today to a distance at which she has already won once, she faces no obvious stamina concerns.
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12Michonne48/100
Michonne is a fair performer who showed useful placed form at this track last season and has already won over today's trip. She was well below her best on return at Cork and now has to prove she handles soft ground having never run on it. The trainer's modest 10% strike rate at Naas from a huge sample adds a note of caution.
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13Glowing Account45/100
Glowing Account is a fair performer who has shown steady placed form in recent starts. He steps up in trip today having won once from two starts at this distance previously. The trainer records a solid 23% strike rate at Naas from a big sample.
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14Not Just Any Eagle44/100
Not Just Any Eagle is a fair sort who has been in and out this year but showed his best when winning at Limerick last month. He drops back to 2m having just been placed at the trip without winning and has handled soft ground in the past though without scoring. The trainer records a modest 7% strike rate at Naas from a big sample while the jockey is having her first ride here.
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15Putapoundinthejar43/100
Putapoundinthejar is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning at Fairyhouse last time and has a previous success at today's trip. He drops back from 2m1½f with a solid record on soft ground. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Naas from a big sample is a negative.
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16Thisistheway42/100
Thisistheway is a fair performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year and now makes his first visit to Naas. He has won over today's trip but has failed to place in four runs on soft ground. The trainer and jockey both have very limited data at the track.
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17Sir Jeremy42/100
Sir Jeremy is a fair handicapper who has shown mixed form this year with three wins from 22 runs. He has placed once from three starts at Naas but failed to place in two runs on soft ground. The step up to 2m is an unknown and the yard's solid 13% strike rate at the track offers some encouragement.
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18Eben Zaabeel37/100
Eben Zaabeel is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts after an early second. He drops back to 2m having been unable to win at the trip in two previous attempts and is only placed once from one run on soft ground. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Naas from a large sample adds little encouragement on first run here.
KTB verdict
Madbadanddangerous is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with a course win on soft ground already to his name, he is well placed by the Meade/Ryan combination that knows Naas well. The drop back in trip is the main query but his held-up style should suit the likely steadily-run race. The main dangers are Comfort Zone, who has a fine record on soft and at the trip plus previous success here, and Factual Fact, who arrives in good order with solid recent form and proven stamina on soft.
KTB Selection Madbadanddangerous
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Naas results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Naas racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form on soft ground?
Madbadanddangerous has won here on soft ground.
How many of the principals are held up in running?
All five principals are held up and usually produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Naas in this field?
W. P. Mullins has a 23% strike rate at Naas from 944 runs.
Which horse is dropping back in trip after a run over 2m1f?
Both Madbadanddangerous and Comfort Zone are dropping back after a run over 2m1f.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Naas among the principals?
Colin Keane has a 17% strike rate at Naas from 763 rides when riding Abbotsford.
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