Horse profile
Valid Reason (GB)
by Observatory (USA) out of Real Trust (USA) (Danzig)
54 runs · 23 courses · from Nov 2009
As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
No run recorded since 19 Apr 2017 — 3,479 days ago. Our archive can't say whether the horse is still in training.
Last run Apr 2017
5 wins · 4 courses
Last raced off OR 94
KTB Profile
Valid Reason (GB) is 5 from 54. Hasn't won since Apr 2015. Last raced off 94, 36lb below the career-high mark.
Based on 54 archived runs · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
OR ↓ 36lb off peak
- 5–54Wins / Runs
- 9.3%Strike rate
- 18 (33.3%)Placed
- −11.88£1 level staken=54 at SP
- 0.90Fair A/E n=54 · 0.77 incl. margin
- 130Highest OR
- 51dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating94↓ 36lb off peak
94
62–130
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed —
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 2 | 103C | 91.5 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m5f – 3m | 2 | 103C | 91.5 | — |
Of 4 runs looked at, 2 have no figure: obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (1) · did not complete (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 2 figures from 4 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Observatory (USA)
Progeny in our archive have won 8.4% of 2,276 runs since Jan 2008 (162 horses).
Strongest on soft going: 11.5% from 330.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 26 | 0 | 0% | −8.4 | — |
| Good to Firm | 417 | 32 | 7.7% | −0.7 | 0 from 3 |
| Good | 562 | 58 | 10.3% | +1.9 | 1 from 13 |
| Good to Soft | 281 | 20 | 7.1% | −1.3 | 1 from 4 |
| Soft | 330 | 38 | 11.5% | +3.1 | 0 from 17 |
| Heavy | 116 | 9 | 7.8% | −0.6 | 0 from 3 |
| Standard (AW) | 544 | 35 | 6.4% | −2 | 3 from 14 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 54 | 2 | 3.7% | −4.7 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 464 | 40 | 8.6% | +0.2 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 421 | 41 | 9.7% | +1.3 | 1 from 2 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 530 | 48 | 9.1% | +0.7 | 1 from 12 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 418 | 31 | 7.4% | −1 | 1 from 22 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 273 | 24 | 8.8% | +0.4 | 0 from 7 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 106 | 6 | 5.7% | −2.7 | 2 from 10 |
| Over 3m | 10 | 0 | 0% | −8.4 | 0 from 1 |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 28 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Real Trust (USA) (Danzig)
4 siblings in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Truism (GB) (2 wins).
The wins came over 7f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Truism (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truism (GB) | 19 | 2 | 7f | Class 4 |
| Lobby (GB) | 4 | 0 | — | — |
| Gallant Leader (USA) | 3 | 0 | — | — |
| Stark Truth (GB) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 17 | 0 | 0% | −17.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 14 | 3 | 21% | +12.37 |
| Good | 13 | 1 | 8% | +0.00 |
| Good to Soft | 4 | 1 | 25% | −1.25 |
| Heavy | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Firm | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 4 | 20 | 2 | 10% | −13.50 |
| Class 3 | 15 | 0 | 0% | −15.00 |
| Class 5 | 11 | 2 | 18% | +11.62 |
| Class 2 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +10.00 |
| Class 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kempton (AW) | 7 | 2 | 29% | −1.63 |
| Ascot | 6 | 1 | 17% | +7.00 |
| Newbury | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Sandown | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Goodwood | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| York | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Ayr | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Fairyhouse | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 2 | 1 | 50% | +19.00 |
| Kempton | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Newmarket | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Doncaster | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Sedgefield | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Navan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Warwick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leicester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Towcester | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.75 |
| Huntingdon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Salisbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 22 | 1 | 5% | −1.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 12 | 1 | 8% | −8.25 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 10 | 2 | 20% | +5.75 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.38 |
| Over 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Crowley | 6 | 1 | 17% | −4.38 |
| Paul Moloney | 5 | 1 | 20% | −2.25 |
| Shane Kelly | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Seb Sanders | 4 | 1 | 25% | +17.00 |
| Alain Cawley | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Barry Geraghty | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Derek Fox | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Steven Kelly | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Robert Thornton | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Frankie McDonald | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Adam Kirby | 2 | 1 | 50% | +1.75 |
| Pat Dobbs | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Conor Maxwell | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Colin Keane | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Pat Cosgrave | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Robert Winston | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Liam Treadwell | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tom O'Brien | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tom McLaughlin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Liam Jones | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Luke Morris | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tom Scudamore | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Joe Fanning | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Graham Lee | 1 | 1 | 100% | +12.00 |
| Tom Messenger | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ryan Moore | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ted Durcan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kieren Fallon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 35 | 4 | 11% | −13.88 |
| Tongue tie | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Tongue tie + blinkers | 5 | 1 | 20% | +16.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Hood + tongue tie | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Hood | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Tongue tie + visor | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tongue tie + cheekpieces | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 2016 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 2015 | 7 | 1 | 14% | +14.00 |
| 2014 | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| 2013 | 9 | 0 | 0% | −9.00 |
| 2012 | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| 2011 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +9.75 |
| 2010 | 8 | 1 | 13% | −4.25 |
| 2009 | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.38 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | 33 | 3 | 9% | −6.63 |
| Hurdle | 20 | 2 | 10% | −4.25 |
| NH Flat | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 19 Apr 17+51d | Sedgefield | Macmillan Cancer Support Handicap Hurdle | PU/13 | — | 11-6 | 94 | — | — | Derek Fox | 18/1 |
| 27 Feb 17+56d | Ayr | Racing Uk Day Pass Just 10 Handicap Hurdle | PU/7 | — | 11-5 | 100 | — | — | Steven Kelly | 17/2 |
| 02 Jan 17+23d | Ayr | Racinguk.com Handicap Hurdle | 7/9 | 11 | 10-11 | 105 | 80C | 87C | Steven Kelly | 25/1 |
| 2016 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 10 Dec 16+164d | Navan | Drogheda Handicap Hurdle (80-109) | 10/22 | 3¾ | 11-5 | 102 | 103C | 100C | Derek Fox | 33/1 |
| 29 Jun 16+21d | Fairyhouse | Coral.ie Best Price Guaranteed On All Irish And UK Races Handicap (45-65) | 14/16 | 7½ | 9-8 | 62 | — | 60C | Conor Maxwell | 50/1 |
| 08 Jun 16+386d | Fairyhouse | Next Racing At Fairyhouse June 29th Handicap (45-65) | 13/14 | 5½ | 10-0 | 65 | — | 57C | Colin Keane | 20/1 |
| 2015 · 7 runs | ||||||||||
| 19 May 15+17d | Nottingham | Horse Racing Loyalty Bonus At winner.co.uk Handicap | 6/11 | 11 | 9-6 | 71 | — | 67C | Seb Sanders | 25/1 |
| 02 May 15+23d | Goodwood | Betfred 'Home Of Goals Galore' Handicap | 5/12 | 6 | 9-8 | 73 | — | 72A | Pat Cosgrave | 11/1 |
| 09 Apr 15+2d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Totetrifecta Pick The 1, 2, 3 Handicap | 2/10 | 1 | 10-2 | 65 | — | 85A | Robert Winston | 8/1 |
| 07 Apr 15+22d | Lingfield (AW) | Heart FM Handicap | 1/11 | 9-7 | 65 | — | 75A | Seb Sanders | 20/1 | |
| 16 Mar 15+37d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Madness Grandslam Tour 3rd June Handicap | 5/6 | 4½ | 9-11 | 67 | — | 60C | Seb Sanders | 17/2 |
| 07 Feb 15+16d | Warwick | Bet & Watch At Titanbet.co.uk Handicap Hurdle | PU/11 | — | 11-7 | 115 | — | — | Liam Treadwell | 14/1 |
| 22 Jan 15+34d | Chelmsford City (AW) | chelmsfordcityracecourse.com Handicap | 3/7 | ¾ | 9-11 | 66 | — | 76B | Seb Sanders | 7/2 |
| 2014 · 8 runs | ||||||||||
| 19 Dec 14+9d | Ascot | Mitie Handicap Hurdle | 8/10 | 3½ | 11-3 | 118 | — | 105A | Alain Cawley | 16/1 |
| 10 Dec 14+32d | Leicester | Advent Handicap Hurdle | 4/7 | 3½ | 11-5 | 118 | — | 116A | Alain Cawley | 16/1 |
| 08 Nov 14+27d | Sandown | Share.com : More People Enjoying Straightforward Investing Handicap Hurdle | 5/11 | 10 | 11-3 | 120 | — | 112A | Tom O'Brien | 15/2 |
| 12 Oct 14+219d | Goodwood | Alderbrook Handicap (Professional NH Jockeys) | 3/14 | 4½ | 10-12 | 66 | — | 76A | Alain Cawley | 33/1 |
| 07 Mar 14+13d | Sandown | Charles Stanley Handicap Hurdle | PU/9 | — | 11-9 | 125 | — | — | Paul Moloney | 16/1 |
| 22 Feb 14+6d | Kempton | Jockey Club Handicap Hurdle (Jockey Club Grassroots Jumps Series Qualifier) | PU/8 | — | 11-7 | 125 | — | — | Robert Thornton | 16/1 |
| 16 Feb 14+24d | Kempton (AW) | kempton.co.uk 'Jumpers' Bumper' NH Flat Race | 5/13 | 7 | 11-2 | — | — | 112A | Paul Moloney | 33/1 |
| 23 Jan 14+34d | Kempton (AW) | Back Of The Net At BetVictor.com Handicap | 9/9 | 18 | 9-11 | 67 | — | 57C | Jim Crowley | 9/2 |
| 2013 · 9 runs | ||||||||||
| 20 Dec 13+21d | Ascot | Barclays Handicap Hurdle | 9/12 | 22 | 11-9 | 126 | — | 106C | Robert Thornton | 14/1 |
| 29 Nov 13+20d | Newbury | Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) | 11/21 | 1½ | 11-5 | 127 | — | 112A | Barry Geraghty | 20/1 |
| 09 Nov 13+28d | Sandown | Sign 2000 Celebratory Handicap Hurdle | 2/13 | 6 | 11-7 | 125 | — | 133A | Barry Geraghty | 13/2 |
| 12 Oct 13+21d | York | Coral Backing Macmillan Cancer Support Handicap | 3/17 | 1¼ | 8-9 | 65 | — | 72A | Frankie McDonald | 9/1 |
| 21 Sep 13+15d | Newmarket | Betfred Cesarewitch Trial Stakes (Handicap) | 8/18 | ½ | 8-0 | 65 | — | 65C | Frankie McDonald | 33/1 |
| 06 Sep 13+20d | Kempton (AW) | Eventmasters.co.uk Handicap | 9/10 | 18 | 9-3 | 69 | — | 59C | Jim Crowley | 5/1 |
| 17 Aug 13+14d | Doncaster | Expert Guide To Doncaster At Doncasterracecoursetips.co.uk Handicap | 7/7 | 8 | 9-5 | 75 | — | 66C | Tom McLaughlin | 33/1 |
| 03 Aug 13+190d | Newmarket | Mickey Flynn's American Pool Hall Handicap | 9/9 | 24 | 9-0 | 78 | — | 62C | Liam Jones | 16/1 |
| 25 Jan 13+30d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Find The Best Odds At Bookmakers.co.uk Handicap | 6/7 | 6 | 9-10 | 80 | — | 68C | Luke Morris | 5/1 |
| 2012 · 8 runs | ||||||||||
| 26 Dec 12+27d | Kempton | William Hill iPad App Now Available Handicap Hurdle | PU/12 | — | 11-8 | 129 | — | — | Barry Geraghty | 20/1 |
| 29 Nov 12+19d | Newbury | Sportingbet Intermediate Hurdle (Listed Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Feilden Hurdle) | 4/6 | 8 | 10-10 | 130 | — | 116B | Paul Moloney | 4/1 |
| 10 Nov 12+28d | Sandown | Get Straight To The Bet At Bluesq.com Handicap Hurdle | 2/12 | ¾ | 11-11 | 127 | — | 145A | Tom Scudamore | 4/1 |
| 13 Oct 12+8d | York | Coral Backing Changing Faces Handicap | 3/10 | 1¾ | 9-9 | 79 | — | 85A | Shane Kelly | 8/1 |
| 05 Oct 12+34d | Ascot | Wessex Youth Trust Gordon Carter Handicap | 6/11 | ½ | 9-5 | 81 | — | 77A | Shane Kelly | 9/1 |
| 01 Sep 12+15d | Chester | Mococo Handicap | 5/10 | 8 | 10-0 | 83 | — | 76A | Joe Fanning | 9/2 |
| 17 Aug 12+181d | Newbury | Punter Southall Transaction Services Handicap | 6/15 | 1 | 9-11 | 85 | — | 85A | Shane Kelly | 14/1 |
| 18 Feb 12+65d | Ascot | Betfair. Don't Settle For Less Handicap Hurdle | 8/18 | hd | 10-5 | 130 | — | 123A | Paul Moloney | 16/1 |
| 2011 · 6 runs | ||||||||||
| 15 Dec 11+26d | Towcester | Racing Forum At gg.com Novices' Hurdle | 1/16 | 11-5 | — | — | 143A | Paul Moloney | 7/4F | |
| 19 Nov 11+42d | Ascot | Playboy Club London Novices' Hurdle | 1/6 | 10-12 | — | — | 131B | Graham Lee | 12/1 | |
| 08 Oct 11+17d | York | coral.co.uk Green Tick Win More Every Race Handicap | 2/12 | 2¼ | 10-0 | 81 | — | 87A | Shane Kelly | 11/1 |
| 21 Sep 11+12d | Goodwood | Discovery Foods Handicap | 3/13 | 2¼ | 9-3 | 80 | — | 91A | Shane Kelly | 16/1 |
| 09 Sep 11+177d | Doncaster | Mollart Cox Classified Stakes | 3/16 | 3½ | 9-4 | 80 | — | 88A | Jim Crowley | 66/1 |
| 16 Mar 11+91d | Huntingdon | Bet On The Cheltenham Festival Totejackpot Maiden Hurdle | 8/14 | 1¼ | 10-7 | — | — | 87A | Tom Messenger | 15/2 |
| 2010 · 8 runs | ||||||||||
| 15 Dec 10+14d | Kempton (AW) | digibet.com Handicap | 6/6 | 1¾ | 9-7 | 84 | — | 68B | Adam Kirby | 7/2 |
| 01 Dec 10+20d | Kempton (AW) | digibet Casino Handicap | 1/3 | 9-4 | 79 | — | 83C | Adam Kirby | 11/4 | |
| 11 Nov 10+55d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Bet Test Match Rugby - Betdaq Handicap | 5/9 | 10 | 9-1 | 80 | — | 63A | Jim Crowley | 11/4F |
| 17 Sep 10+28d | Newbury | Burges Salmon Handicap | 2/10 | 2½ | 9-3 | 80 | — | 84A | Pat Dobbs | 5/2F |
| 20 Aug 10+27d | Salisbury | Weatherbys Bank Handicap | 2/7 | 3¾ | 9-3 | 80 | — | 83A | Pat Dobbs | 15/2 |
| 24 Jul 10+23d | Ascot | Canisbay Bloodstock Handicap | 6/10 | 4 | 9-6 | 81 | — | 73A | Ryan Moore | 11/4F |
| 01 Jul 10+64d | Newbury | totesport.com Handicap | 2/7 | shd | 9-1 | 79 | — | 88A | Ted Durcan | 9/1 |
| 28 Apr 10+133d | Kempton (AW) | Digibet.com Handicap | 4/5 | 3½ | 9-4 | 79 | — | 76B | Jim Crowley | 3/1 |
| 2009 · 2 runs | ||||||||||
| 16 Dec 09+21d | Kempton (AW) | E.B.F. Maiden Stakes (Div 2) | 1/9 | 9-3 | 79 | — | 84A | Jim Crowley | 8/13F | |
| 25 Nov 09 | Lingfield (AW) | E.B.F. Maiden Stakes | 3/12 | 1 | 9-3 | — | — | 85A | Kieren Fallon | 9/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Valid Reason won?
- Valid Reason (GB) won 5 of 54 archived starts between 2009 and 2017, a strike rate of 9.3%. Placed 18 times in total (33.3% of starts).
- Who trained Valid Reason?
- Valid Reason (GB) was trained by Noel C Kelly on the most recent run on record, at Sedgefield on 19 April 2017.
- Who is Valid Reason's sire?
- Valid Reason (GB) is by Observatory (USA) out of Real Trust (USA), whose sire is Danzig.
- What going does Valid Reason prefer?
- Valid Reason (GB) has the best record on good to soft going: 1 win from 4 starts (25%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Valid Reason's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 94, from the run on 19 April 2017. The highest on record is 130.
- What is Valid Reason's sire's record?
- Observatory (USA)'s progeny in our archive have won 8.4% of 2,276 runs since Jan 2008 (162 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on soft going: 11.5% from 330.
- Who are Valid Reason's siblings?
- Out of Real Trust (USA), Valid Reason (GB) has 4 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Truism (GB) (2). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Truism (GB)). The wins came over 7f. As at Oct 2026.