4:50 Nottingham
This Class 5 handicap over 6f18y at Nottingham on good ground brings together a field of 15 modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top end. Royal Accord tops the KTB numbers on 61 while the next four principals sit between 54 and 52, underlining how competitive the race appears on paper. The official ratings range from 58 to 70 and several runners have course form or previous success at the trip, yet the KTB assessments highlight a mixture of modest ability, patchy recent form and varying trainer records at the track.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is strongly expected to be on the fast side and could collapse in the closing stages. Ingleby Archie and Havanagreattime are both noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, while Trafalger is also a front-runner, setting up the likelihood of an early battle. That strong pace should favour the hold-up performers, several of whom are among the principals, and the key question is which of the late closers can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Royal Accord KTB Selection61/100
Royal Accord is a modest performer who has shown a bit of spark this year with a second and a third from his last five starts. He has won over today's trip and is 3 from 4 when placed on good ground, though he has never won on this surface. The Peter Chapple-Hyam and Marco Ghiani combination brings solid Nottingham records, the trainer at 16% strike rate and the jockey at 15%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the anticipated strong pace, even if the wide draw in stall 11 is far from ideal. Overall he tops the KTB Fit ratings at 61 and is taken to come out on top.
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2Bright54/100
Bright is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to 6f where he has won four times in the past though his recent record at the trip is nothing to shout about. The Mark Loughnane yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Nottingham yet this is offset by Ray Dawson's solid 15% record at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Bright should relish the strong pace that is likely to unfold. He arrives with a KTB Fit rating of 54 and remains capable of a competitive showing if he can rediscover some spark.
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3Ingleby Archie53/100
Ingleby Archie is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just one visit. Recent form has been patchy with a best of fifth on his last two starts and he has been beaten a fair way on both occasions. Adrian Nicholls and Jack Garritty both have solid records here, the trainer at 10% and the jockey at 14%. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could set a strong gallop that may ultimately play into the hands of the hold-up horses. He has handled good ground in the past and carries a KTB Fit score of 53.
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4Melissa Honey53/100
Melissa Honey is a limited horse who has been busy and consistent, winning four times from 20 runs in the last year. She has already won here from one visit, is proven at this trip and handles good ground well enough to be competitive. Michael Herrington has a strong 15% strike rate at Nottingham while David Probert's record is more modest at 10%. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be helped by the race's strong pace even from a wide draw in stall 14. Stepping up in class, she is rated 53 on KTB Fit and enters calculations as a course winner.
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5Havanagreattime52/100
Havanagreattime is a modest performer who has struggled this year with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to his winning trip having scored twice over 6f and looks comfortable on good ground with a solid record from limited runs. Ruth Carr and James Sullivan both have modest records at Nottingham, the trainer at 7% and the jockey at 5%. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could be involved early but the wide draw in stall 13 adds a further question mark. Rated 52 on KTB Fit, he remains a contender on his best form.
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6Taaklam52/100
Taaklam is a modest performer who has won once at this trip from seven attempts but was well held when last seen over 7f. He drops back in distance today while making a first appearance at Nottingham on ground that has so far produced no win or place from three runs. The trainer has a 14% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 4%.
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7Spirit of Applause51/100
Spirit of Applause is a modest performer who has been placed on three of his seven runs here without winning. Consistent enough this year with a string of minor honours yet he has failed to land a race in 22 starts at this trip. Dropping in class, both trainer and jockey operate at a 9% strike rate at Nottingham with below-par A/E figures.
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8Trafalger51/100
Trafalger is a modest performer who has shown some consistency lately, finishing second on his most recent start over 5.5f. He steps up in trip today for the first time in a while having been placed without winning at this distance previously. The trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate at Nottingham while the jockey is operating at 13%.
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9Cairdeas50/100
Cairdeas is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning often, finishing second on his only visit to Nottingham and placing four times at this trip. He acts on good ground but his record on it is nothing special. The trainer has a solid 13% strike-rate here while the jockey's 5% mark is more modest.
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10Imelda50/100
Imelda is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this level but failed to build on it when well held on her latest two starts. She drops back to an untried 6f today which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has a solid 11% strike rate here while the jockey's 7% from 175 rides is more modest.
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11Tiriac46/100
Tiriac is a modest performer who has been out of the frame in all six starts this year and showed little spark last time. He has run respectably without winning over this track before and steps back up to a trip he has won at in the past, though his record on good ground is poor. The trainer holds a solid course record while the jockey is less effective here.
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12Thunderous Love46/100
Thunderous Love is a modest performer who has won twice over this trip and landed two victories here from five runs at Nottingham. Recent form has been patchy with a string of placed efforts but no win since last summer, while he has never scored on good ground despite placing three times from five starts. The trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at the track is a negative but the jockey's 15% record here offers some compensation.
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13Act of Violence46/100
Act of Violence is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives in reasonable form after a placed effort last time. He has won on good ground and at today's trip but showed little when well beaten on his only previous run here. The trainer's modest strike rate at the track is a negative.
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14Crystal Dagger39/100
Crystal Dagger is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of mid-field finishes. Placed once on good ground from a single run but has never won at this trip in five attempts and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has only a small sample at Nottingham while the jockey is still seeking a first winner here from 11 rides.
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15Perineighs38/100
Perineighs is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third and fourth in two runs here. He has been out of form this year though, with a string of poor efforts, and the yard is struggling at Nottingham with a zero per cent strike rate. The untried trip at this distance adds another question mark.
KTB verdict
Royal Accord is the KTB Selection. He has shown a bit of spark this year with a second and a third from his last five starts, has won over the trip and is 3 from 4 when placed on good ground. Usually held up, he is ideally suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold, and the trainer and jockey both bring solid Nottingham records. His main dangers are the other hold-up performers who could also benefit if the leaders go too hard, principally Bright, Ingleby Archie, Melissa Honey and Havanagreattime, all of whom have shown enough at this level to make it a competitive affair.
KTB Selection Royal Accord
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Royal Accord, who is usually held up and produces his effort late, should be favoured if the pace collapses.
How many previous course winners are in the field?
Ingleby Archie, Melissa Honey and Thunderous Love have all won at Nottingham.
Which trainers hold the strongest strike rates at Nottingham in this race?
Michael Herrington has a 15% strike rate, Peter Chapple-Hyam 16%, Ben Case 17% and Harriet Bethell 14%.
Which front-runners could set the strong pace?
Ingleby Archie and Havanagreattime both tend to make the running or race on the pace, with Trafalger also a front-runner.
Which horse is first-time headgear?
Crystal Dagger is trying headgear for the first time.
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