7:30 Kempton (AW)
This Class 5 handicap over seven furlongs at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a field of 14 modest performers, many of whom are dropping in class while carrying recent ordinary form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 59 and 37, underlining a competitive but largely unexciting race where yard and jockey course records, trip suitability and draw will play significant parts. With a strong pace confidently expected, the shape of the race should favour those capable of producing their effort from off the speed.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners in Dandy G Boy and Mojito, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. This should set up a test where the early fractions could prove too demanding, potentially causing the leaders to fade in the latter stages and handing the advantage to hold-up performers. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can dictate matters without overdoing it, or if the race will collapse late and play into the hands of those coming from the rear, as the majority of the field are habitual hold-up types.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Moon Beginnings KTB Selection59/100
Moon Beginnings is a modest performer with a recent string of ordinary efforts including an 8th of 9 last time. He drops back from a mile and a quarter to a trip over which he has won before, while the yard posts a solid 10% strike-rate at this track from 188 runs. First run here and unproven on standard to slow ground add unknowns. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 14% strike-rate from 426 runners with an A/E of 0.96. Held up in his races, he usually produces his effort late and that could be an asset given the expected strong pace.
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2Seeing Stars55/100
Seeing Stars is a modest performer who has won over this trip and on today's surface. He brings solid course form with a win from a single start at Kempton and has placed on standard to slow ground. Stepping up from six furlongs today, he has shown mixed form in recent runs including a latest eighth. The yard records an 11% strike-rate at the track from 714 runs with an A/E of 0.94, while Luke Morris operates at 9% from 3367 rides here with an A/E of 0.86. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the race shape.
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3Sargent Dennis54/100
Sargent Dennis is a modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts including a second here over six furlongs. He steps up to an untried seven furlongs today which asks a fresh question of him, while the wide draw in stall 11 is far from ideal. The trainer holds a 7% strike-rate from 69 runs at Kempton with an A/E of 0.55, and the jockey is operating at a 12% strike-rate from 1195 rides here with an A/E of 0.9. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his placed effort on standard to slow ground from a single start keeps him in the picture.
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4Rey De La Batalla53/100
Rey De La Batalla is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from 13 runs and also has two wins over today's seven-furlong trip. Dropping back in distance from a mile, he has shown little spark in two starts this year. The trainer's modest 8% strike-rate from 783 runs at Kempton with an A/E of 0.88 offers no real encouragement, and the jockey is 5% from 161 rides here with an A/E of 0.79. He has two wins from 15 starts on standard to slow ground and usually races held up, producing his effort late.
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5Jersey Maverick53/100
Jersey Maverick is a modest performer who has been placed on three of his six runs at Kempton without winning. He acts on standard to slow ground and has won over today's seven-furlong trip though he is now 0-13 in handicaps since that success. Trainer Charlie Fellowes has an 11% strike-rate from 403 runs at the track with an A/E of 0.75, while Paddy Bradley rides at a 6% strike-rate from 427 rides here with an A/E of 0.8. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form of 628234 suggests he remains competitive at this level.
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6Dandy G Boy53/100
Dandy G Boy is a modest performer who has run creditably on his last three starts without threatening to win. He drops back to seven furlongs today having won at the trip in the past, and his record on standard to slow going reads a solid 1 win from 2 starts. He has already won once from two runs at Kempton and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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7Bold Suitor52/100
Bold Suitor is a modest performer with a solid course record here including one win from seven runs. He drops back to seven furlongs today after his last run over a mile and has won five times at this trip from 31 attempts though his recent form of 215766 is mixed. The trainer has an 8% strike-rate from 13 runs at Kempton with an A/E of 0.68.
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8Penfolds Grange52/100
Penfolds Grange is a modest performer who has been placed three times from five runs at Kempton without winning. He has shown his best form on standard to slow going and has been competitive at this trip. The yard's poor 2% strike-rate at the track from 93 runs with an A/E of 0.33 is a clear negative.
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9Tasdeed51/100
Tasdeed is a modest performer who has shown little at this track in five runs, finishing no better than third. He drops back to seven furlongs having won at the trip before, which looks a positive, and he has also recorded a win on this sort of ground. The trainer has a 0% strike-rate from 17 runs at Kempton with an A/E of 0.
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10Musical Soldier50/100
Musical Soldier is a modest performer who arrives in solid form with four wins from his last six starts. He drops back to seven furlongs having won four times at the trip from eight attempts yet his two efforts here over this distance produced only minor placings at best. The trainer holds an 8% strike-rate at the track from 126 runs with an A/E of 0.8.
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11Bundok50/100
Bundok is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in five runs, finishing no better than fifth. He has been beaten at this track twice already without looking like winning and is now trying the same trip again after two previous failures at it. The trainer maintains a 10% strike-rate here from 754 runs with an A/E of 0.86.
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12Mojito48/100
Mojito is a modest performer who has dropped in the weights after two modest efforts here this year. He drops back to seven furlongs having won at the trip earlier in his career and that looks the right move after his last run over a mile. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Kempton without setting the place alight.
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13Upsomdowns43/100
Upsomdowns is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing fourth here last time after a similar effort the run before. He drops back to seven furlongs having been placed at the trip earlier in his career, though the move comes after two runs over a mile. The trainer has a 7% strike-rate from 573 runs at Kempton with an A/E of 0.87.
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14Divine Wish37/100
Divine Wish is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in four starts, finishing no better than fourth. He has been beaten at Kempton on all three previous visits to the track and has failed to place at this trip. The trainer operates at an 8% strike-rate here from 355 runs with an A/E of 0.84.
KTB verdict
Moon Beginnings is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with a recent string of ordinary efforts, he drops back to a trip he has won at before while the yard posts a solid 10% strike-rate at this track. The expected strong pace should suit his hold-up style. Main dangers include Seeing Stars, who brings a win at the course and distance plus proven ability on the surface, and Sargent Dennis, who has placed here and on the going though the wide draw is a concern. Rey De La Batalla and Jersey Maverick add further depth to what looks a trappy contest.
KTB Selection Moon Beginnings
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 9 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Moon Beginnings | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Seeing Stars | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Sargent Dennis | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Rey De La Batalla | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Jersey Maverick | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Dandy G Boy | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Bold Suitor | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Penfolds Grange | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Tasdeed | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Musical Soldier | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Bundok | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Mojito | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Upsomdowns | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Divine Wish | 14/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven to have won both at Kempton and on standard to slow ground?
Seeing Stars has won here from a single start at Kempton and has 1 win from 1 on standard to slow.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, making a strong pace likely with high confidence.
Which runner has the best recent winning record in its last six starts?
Musical Soldier has four wins from his last six starts.
Who has the strongest trainer-jockey combination strike-rate at Kempton in this field?
The trainer and jockey record for Sargent Dennis shows 18/79 (23%) with an A/E of 1.22.
Which horse has been placed on three of its six runs at Kempton without winning?
Jersey Maverick has been placed on three of his six runs at Kempton without winning.
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