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Trainer profile

Brian Nolan

266 runners in the lifetime window · 34 individual horses
As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Oct 2024
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
21–266
Wins / Runs
7.9%
Strike rate
n=266
67 (25%)
Placed
1.06
Fair A/E
n=265 · 0.87 incl. margin
−78.75
£1 level stake
n=266 at SP · −29.6%
£265k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). Debutants are a strength: 10% on first career starts (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 266 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.8% (n=53, Fair A/E 0.62). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (16.7%, n=30) and at trips under 6f (11.1%, n=54).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.8%−4.1
n=53 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −37.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
9.7%+1.8
n=31 · A/E 3.09 · £1 +20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.9
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.3%−3.6
n=23 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −15.00
When favourite
21.4%
n=14 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −6.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.1%−0.8
n=156 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −37.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.9
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With D J Moran 16.2% vs 7.9% · n=37
Off a 0-7-day break 16.7% vs 7.9% · n=30
At trips under 6f 11.1% vs 7.9% · n=54
With Ronan Whelan 5.1% vs 7.9% · n=39
Over 6f – 7f 5.7% vs 7.9% · n=87
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 215 15 7% −80.25
Hurdle 25 4 16% +7.75
NH Flat 25 2 8% −5.25
Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 89 6 6.7% −37.00
Good 54 5 9.3% −2.00
Heavy 41 4 9.8% −0.75
Good to Firm 33 2 6.1% −21.75
Standard (AW) 25 2 8% −5.00
Good to Soft 20 1 5% −11.00
Firm 4 1 25% −1.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Curragh 28 0 0% −28.00
Dundalk (AW) 25 2 8% −5.00
Naas 22 1 4.5% −16.00
Navan 17 2 11.8% +1.50
Cork 17 3 17.6% +24.75
Tipperary 16 0 0% −16.00
Gowran Park 15 1 6.7% −12.00
Leopardstown 15 1 6.7% −6.00
Fairyhouse 15 2 13.3% +0.50
Limerick 14 1 7.1% −5.00
Roscommon 12 2 16.7% −3.25
Sligo 12 2 16.7% +7.00
Down Royal 9 1 11.1% −6.25
Ballinrobe 8 1 12.5% +0.00
Galway 6 0 0% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 18 0 0% −18.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 17 3 17.6% 0.75 −9.00
2nd–3rd fav 44 8 18.2% 1.22 +7.75
4th–6th fav 80 8 10% 1.42 +13.50
7th+ in betting 125 2 1.6% 0.57 −91.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Keep Believing (IRE)then Joseph Patrick O'Brien 28 3 8 13 Sep 19
Well Done Me (IRE) 26 1 5 11 Dec 15
Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)then J R Jenkins 21 0 3 3 Nov 23
Fire Belt (IRE) 21 1 10 29 Dec 14
First Symphony (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast 19 2 10 23 Jul 10
Monivea (IRE) 19 2 4 21 Jul 10
Kaprun (IRE) 18 3 6 5 Dec 12
Perfect Godess (IRE) 13 1 4 30 May 13
Strandhill (IRE)then Denis W Cullen 12 1 2 25 Oct 10
Gateway To Europe (GB)then Neil King 8 0 3 8 Nov 18
What About Me (IRE) 7 1 1 16 Apr 11
It's A Gamble (IRE) 6 0 0 14 Oct 24
All 34 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 34 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 32 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard; 24 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
001318387412490
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderRonan Whelan
15% of all rides
5.1% SR · A/E 0.36
RiderRWSR£1
Ronan Whelan 39 2 5.1% −27.00
D J Moran 37 6 16.2% +25.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
25
Archived wins
£361k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Monivea (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland EBF Fillies Maiden Leopardstown · Jul 2008
£13,020
Hollow Hill (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland (Fillies) Auction Race Sligo · Aug 2007
£11,747
Monivea (IRE) — Bobbyjo Bistro Race Fairyhouse · Jun 2009
£11,402
Notable horses
Keep Believing (IRE) Kaprun (IRE) First Symphony (IRE) Monivea (IRE) Settigano (IRE) Laurel Wreath (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Zoffany (IRE) 10.7% · 3–28
Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,769 runs since 2008 (799 horses).
Moss Vale (IRE) 3.8% · 1–26
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,012 runs since 2008 (145 horses).
Mehmas (IRE) 0% · 0–21
Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,176 runs since 2008 (750 horses).
Milan (GB) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,862 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Montjeu (IRE) 14.3% · 3–21
Progeny have won 12.3% of 7,971 runs since 2008 (665 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.3% from 686.
Brahms (USA) 10.5% · 2–19
Progeny have won 7.1% of 85 runs since 2008 (8 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 360 · newest first

The latest 50 of 360 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 14 October 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
14 Oct 24 Roscommon It's A Gamble (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)7.5f · Soft · 15 ran 15th 100/1
05 Oct 24 Curragh It's A Gamble (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Handicap (47-65)8f · Good · 25 ran 25th 66/1
09 Aug 24 Tipperary It's A Gamble (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey Donovan Transport Handicap (47-65)7.5f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 16th 40/1
22 Jun 24 Limerick It's A Gamble (IRE)J: Wayne Hassett Regeneron 'Celebrating 10 Years In The Mid-West' Maiden7f · Good · 15 ran 8th 150/1
05 Jun 24 Curragh It's A Gamble (IRE)J: Wayne Hassett Manguard Plus Maiden6.5f · Good · 18 ran 10th 200/1
24 May 24 Curragh It's A Gamble (IRE)J: Wayne Hassett James Nolan's Bar Kildare Irish European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden6f · Good · 13 ran 11th 100/1
03 Nov 23 Dundalk (AW) Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey View Restaurant At Dundalk Handicap (47-65)5f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 66/1
18 Oct 23 Navan Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey Navan Racing Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Maiden5f · Soft · 15 ran 10th 80/1
07 Aug 23 Naas Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Dean Curran Coast To Curragh Cycle On August 26th Apprentice Handicap (47-65)6f · Soft · 24 ran 23rd 80/1
13 Jul 23 Downpatrick New Sheriff (IRE)J: Mr P W Mullins Cosy Roof Flat Race19f · Good · 9 ran 4th 10/11F
11 Jul 23 Tramore Dreamz (IRE)J: Ronan Whelan Tote Always SP Or Better At Tramore Maiden12f · Yielding · 10 ran 8th 33/1
17 Jun 23 Downpatrick New Sheriff (IRE)J: Mr Finian Maguire Tennents NI (Pro/Am) Flat Race19f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 2nd 8/1
30 May 23 Tipperary Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey TipperaryRaces Maiden5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 25/1
13 May 23 Navan Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey Navan Racecourse Maiden5f · Soft · 18 ran 7th 100/1
01 May 23 Curragh Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Keadeen Hotel Handicap (47-75)6f · Soft · 24 ran 16th 100/1
04 Nov 22 Dundalk (AW) Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle William Hill Lengthen Your Odds Maiden5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 80/1
19 Oct 22 Navan Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Rory Cleary NavanRacecourse.ie Maiden5f · Heavy · 17 ran 15th 66/1
08 Oct 22 Curragh Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan IRFU Charitable Trust Handicap (47-75)6f · Soft · 30 ran 26th 80/1
26 Sep 22 Down Royal Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Ben Coen Madri Excepcional Maiden5f · Yielding To Soft · 8 ran 7th 25/1
02 Jul 22 Naas Wild Eyed Girl (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Lacey's Plumbing And Heating Supplies Apprentice Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)6f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran 15th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Brian Nolan's strike rate?
Brian Nolan has won 21 of 266 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Brian Nolan's Fair A/E?
1.06, from 265 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 30 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).