What is Caroline Keevil's strike rate?

Caroline Keevil has won 64 of 814 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Caroline Keevil do best at?

Plumpton by strike rate: 9 wins from 45 runners (20%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Caroline Keevil?

Ian Popham, with 266 runners since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (7.9%).

What is Caroline Keevil's Fair A/E?

1.15, from 814 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Caroline Keevil

814 runners in the lifetime window · 100 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner May 2025 100% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

64–814

Wins / Runs

7.9%

Strike rate

n=814

180 (22%)

Placed

1.15

Fair A/E

n=814 · 0.98 incl. margin

−249.21

£1 level stake

n=814 at SP · −30.6%

£462k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.15).

Deterministic profile computed from 814 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 38.2% when favourite Ian Popham: 7.9% from 266 Claiming riders: 8.1% Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Plumpton (20%, n=45) and Fontwell (17.2%, n=87) — all clear of the yard's 7.9% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=66, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.81 and −89.95 to a £1 stake over 193 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Ian Popham rides 33% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.9%, A/E 1.18) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Chase races (14.4%, n=243). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 0.9% over 117 runners, 7pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the BetBright Chase at Kempton (Feb 2014, £56,950). The stable star of the record: Deep Pockets (IRE) — 8 wins from 37 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.7%−3.2

n=193 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −89.95

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.4%−4.5

n=29 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −23.50

Debutants · first career start

0%−7.9

n=66 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −66.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.4%−0.5

n=27 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −15.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

16.7%+8.8

n=6 · A/E 2.56 · £1 +0.50

When favourite

38.2%

n=34 · A/E 1.42 · £1 +11.91

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.1%+0.2

n=369 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −87.62

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.7%−0.2

n=13 · A/E 2.95 · £1 +16.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Plumpton 20% vs 7.9% · n=45

At Fontwell 17.2% vs 7.9% · n=87

With C&D winners 18.2% vs 7.9% · n=55

In Chase races 14.4% vs 7.9% · n=243

In NH Flat races 0.9% vs 7.9% · n=117

With debutants 0% vs 7.9% · n=66

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 453 28 6.2% −171.52

Chase 243 35 14.4% +23.31

NH Flat 117 1 0.9% −100.00

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 297 21 7.1% −129.67

Good to Soft 219 16 7.3% −106.45

Soft 154 18 11.7% +49.11

Heavy 66 3 4.5% −41.50

Good to Firm 61 4 6.6% −13.70

Standard (AW) 13 0 0% −13.00

Firm 4 2 50% +6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Exeter 101 8 7.9% −30.50

Taunton 94 8 8.5% −51.00

Fontwell 87 15 17.2% +43.78

Chepstow 59 1 1.7% −54.50

Wincanton 59 2 3.4% −39.00

Newton Abbot 56 1 1.8% −50.00

Plumpton 45 9 20% +53.21

Worcester 29 1 3.4% −17.00

Newbury 26 1 3.8% −23.75

Stratford 25 1 4% −12.00

Cheltenham 25 3 12% +8.00

Towcester 22 3 13.6% +1.50

Uttoxeter 20 1 5% −7.00

Hereford 20 1 5% −13.50

Kempton 19 2 10.5% +13.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 396 31 7.8% −152.27

Class 5 199 15 7.5% −42.44

Class 3 109 15 13.8% +6.00

Class 6 78 2 2.6% −57.50

Class 1 18 1 5.6% +11.00

Class 2 14 0 0% −14.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 39 16 41% 1.60 +20.66

2nd–3rd fav 108 17 15.7% 1.02 −16.37

4th–6th fav 250 21 8.4% 1.15 −38.50

7th+ in betting 417 10 2.4% 0.92 −215.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.9% completed · 696 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 243 75.3% 11 7 41 1 0

Hurdle 453 88.5% 6 3 42 1 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bally Legend (GB) 40 7 19 2 Oct 15

Midnight Lira (GB) 36 6 12 4 Dec 15

Deep Pockets (IRE) 33 7 15 11 Jun 12

Sound Stage (GB)then Miss S Berry 27 2 14 25 Jun 13

La Madonnina (IRE)from Bob Buckler 26 2 3 19 Aug 16

Darkestbeforedawn (IRE)from David Harry Kelly 23 2 5 29 Apr 16

Regal Flow (GB)then Bob Buckler 23 3 8 28 Jan 16

Cinevator (IRE)then Kayley Woollacott 23 5 9 18 Jun 14

Canarbino Girl (GB) 21 0 2 5 Nov 15

Matako (FR) 21 1 6 30 Dec 13

Pod (GB) 19 1 4 4 Dec 14

Moorland Sunset (GB) 18 1 5 30 Dec 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 100 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Paul Nicholls (3); 44 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Richard Woollacott (3); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

51441365080879

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderIan Popham

33% of all rides
7.9% SR · A/E 1.18

RiderRWSR£1

Ian Popham 266 21 7.9% −74.32

James Best 189 17 9% −62.77

Tom O'Brien 97 9 9.3% −26.45

Wayne Kavanagh 38 2 5.3% +7.50

Harry Skelton 33 4 12.1% +5.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£471k

Prize money

2013

Best season · 15 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Bally Legend (GB) — BetBright Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Kempton · Feb 2014 · Grade 3

£56,950

Bally Legend (GB) — Brewin Dolphin Trophy Handicap Chase Exeter · Dec 2013 · Class 3

£15,640

Cornish Sett (IRE) — Bathwick Tyres Handicap Chase Wincanton · Jan 2011 · Class 3

£10,645

Notable horses

Deep Pockets (IRE) Bally Legend (GB) Midnight Lira (GB) Cinevator (IRE) Ballyvaden (IRE) Regal Flow (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Midnight Legend (GB) 15.6% · 14–90

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Dr Massini (IRE) 15.2% · 7–46

Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.

Alflora (IRE) 4.4% · 2–45

Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).

Fourstars Allstar (USA) 21.2% · 7–33

Progeny have won 7.1% of 940 runs since 2008 (120 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 10.6% from 113.

Milan (GB) 7.1% · 2–28

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,869 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 7.1% · 2–28

Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 844 · newest first

The latest 50 of 844 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 March 2005 to 16 May 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 May 25 Aintree Perseo (GB)J: Miss Anna Johnston Pendle Capital 'Point-To-Point' Bumper Standard NH Flat Race (Amateur Jockeys) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 17f · Good · 17 ran 14th 150/1

21 Jan 21 Ludlow Reikers Island (IRE)J: James Best Behind Bars Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Soft · 13 ran PU 4/1

04 May 18 Cheltenham Palmaria (GB)J: Bryan Carver Visit Cheltenham.com Mares' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 25.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 12/1

17 Apr 18 Exeter Palmaria (GB)J: Mr William Biddick Heavitree Brewery Ladies Night On May 8th Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 24f · Heavy · 8 ran 1st 5/2J

19 Aug 16 Bangor-on-Dee La Madonnina (IRE)J: James Best Allan Roberts Celebratory Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 12/1

28 Jul 16 Stratford Mrs Winchester (IRE)J: Ian Popham Bordeaux Undiscovered Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 22f · Good · 10 ran 9th 100/1

21 Jul 16 Worcester Chita's Gamble (GB)J: James Best 7bets4free.com Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 16 ran PU 66/1

21 Jul 16 Worcester La Madonnina (IRE)J: James Best Ivor Banks 70th Birthday Handicap Chase (Div 1)Class 4 · 23f · Good · 12 ran F 20/1

05 Jul 16 Uttoxeter Mrs Winchester (IRE)J: Ian Popham Betfred 'greater Value Every Day' Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran PU 100/1

28 Jun 16 Stratford La Madonnina (IRE)J: James Best Jollyodds.com Bet Calculator Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Soft · 7 ran PU 16/1

28 Jun 16 Stratford Chita's Gamble (GB)J: James Best 17th Of July Is Ladies Day Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 200/1

20 Jun 16 Southwell Mrs Winchester (IRE)J: Ian Popham Bet On Slovakia Vs England With Ladbrokes Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 10 ran PU 50/1

10 Jun 16 Newton Abbot Chita's Gamble (GB)J: James Best At The Races Sky 415 Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 8 ran 8th 100/1

04 Jun 16 Worcester Chita's Gamble (GB)J: James Best Raceday Is Wrights Pie Day Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 7th 100/1

29 May 16 Fontwell La Madonnina (IRE)J: James Best Selftrade Trade Anywhere Mobile App Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 12 ran 5th 11/1

14 May 16 Uttoxeter La Madonnina (IRE)J: James Best Enjoy A Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 22.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 12/1

29 Apr 16 Fontwell Darkestbeforedawn (IRE)J: Jack Sherwood Great Lion Roofing Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 4/1

29 Apr 16 Fontwell Prince Mahler (IRE)J: Mr Michael Legg Wizard Windows Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good · 13 ran 8th 40/1

29 Apr 16 Fontwell Mrs Winchester (IRE)J: Ian Popham Chancellor Of The FormChecker Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 16 ran PU 20/1

22 Apr 16 Chepstow Denny Kerrell (GB)J: Ian Popham Evan And Megan Brace Memorial Novices' Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Caroline Keevil's strike rate?: Caroline Keevil has won 64 of 814 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Caroline Keevil do best at?: Plumpton by strike rate: 9 wins from 45 runners (20%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Caroline Keevil?: Ian Popham, with 266 runners since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (7.9%).
What is Caroline Keevil's Fair A/E?: 1.15, from 814 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.