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Trainer profile

Denis Ahern

205 runners in the lifetime window · 42 individual horses
As at 27 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 72 days ago 97% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
7–205
Wins / Runs
3.4%
Strike rate
n=205
25 (12%)
Placed
0.74
Fair A/E
n=205 · 0.55 incl. margin
−117.50
£1 level stake
n=205 at SP · −57.3%
£70,091
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.74).

Deterministic profile computed from 205 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 27 Oct 2026
The read

The record is strongest at Cork (6.7%, n=30), clear of the yard's 3.4% baseline. The yard also reads well on Good going (8.6%, n=35). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 0% over 68 runners, 3.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.22 across 106 runners (0.9% strike, −80.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.1%−1.3
n=47 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −21.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.4
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
3.1%−0.3
n=32 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −28.75
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.4
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
16.7%+13.3
n=6 · A/E 3.72 · £1 +20.00
When favourite
25%
n=8 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −2.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.6%−0.8
n=78 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −72.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good going 8.6% vs 3.4% · n=35
On Soft going 0% vs 3.4% · n=68
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 3.4% · n=43
In Hurdle races 0.9% vs 3.4% · n=106
At Cork 6.7% vs 3.4% · n=30
In Chase races 6% vs 3.4% · n=67
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 106 1 0.9% −80.00
Chase 67 4 6% −11.00
NH Flat 25 2 8% −19.50
Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Heavy 75 4 5.3% −34.50
Soft 68 0 0% −68.00
Good 35 3 8.6% +12.00
Good to Firm 13 0 0% −13.00
Good to Soft 11 0 0% −11.00
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Clonmel 37 1 2.7% −22.00
Cork 30 2 6.7% −24.50
Limerick 21 0 0% −21.00
Thurles 20 1 5% −11.00
Tramore 17 1 5.9% +9.00
Kilbeggan 12 1 8.3% −6.00
Tipperary 11 0 0% −11.00
Listowel 8 0 0% −8.00
Killarney 7 0 0% −7.00
Gowran Park 7 0 0% −7.00
Fairyhouse 7 0 0% −7.00
Punchestown 6 1 16.7% +20.00
Naas 5 0 0% −5.00
Wexford 5 0 0% −5.00
Wexford 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 9 2 22.2% 1.10 −3.50
2nd–3rd fav 16 1 6.3% 0.56 −10.00
4th–6th fav 29 2 6.9% 1.10 −5.00
7th+ in betting 151 2 1.3% 0.49 −99.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
75.7% completed · 173 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 67 67.2% 5 2 15 0 0
Hurdle 106 81.1% 3 1 16 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Evesham Star (IRE)then C Byrnes 24 0 4 13 Apr 13
Exciting Oscar (IRE) 18 1 5 28 Dec 22
Rock'n Roll Kate (IRE) 15 1 1 8 Aug 09
War Of Words (IRE) 14 0 4 17 Jul 13
Goodthynemilan (IRE)then Gordon Elliott 11 0 2 10 Sep 17
Real Appeal (IRE)then Anthony Mullins 11 0 1 26 Jul 13
Tiarella (IRE) 10 2 2 27 Dec 09
Lady Classy (IRE) 10 0 0 19 Aug 09
Many Rivers (IRE)from C Byrnes 9 0 0 1 Jan 09
Paddy The Oscar (IRE)then Grace Harris 6 1 2 12 May 12
Good Man Sir (IRE)then Eoin Griffin 6 0 1 24 Apr 09
Bellachamps (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 5 0 0 29 May 24
All 42 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 42 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 37 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Gordon Elliott (2); 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
005880080050
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Sean Flanagan 19 1 5.3% −10.00
Mark Walsh 17 1 5.9% +9.00
Danny Mullins 13 1 7.7% +13.00
Davy Russell 10 1 10% −4.00
Martin Ferris 9 0 0% −9.00
Phillip Enright 8 0 0% −8.00
Mr H D Dunne 8 0 0% −8.00
Sean McDermott 8 0 0% −8.00
Paddy Kennedy 7 0 0% −7.00
Mr B Dunleavy 6 0 0% −6.00
T G M Ryan 6 0 0% −6.00
Davy Condon 5 0 0% −5.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
14
Archived wins
£153k
Prize money
2006
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Tiarella (IRE) — Murray Laoire Architects Mares Hurdle Limerick · Mar 2006
£11,747
Il Mulino (IRE) — Sean Hughes Memorial Mullingar Park Handicap Hurdle (74-116) Kilbeggan · May 2006
£9,329
Tiarella (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F Handicap Chase (0-116) Kilbeggan · May 2009
£8,983
Notable horses
Tiarella (IRE) Il Mulino (IRE) Media Queen (IRE) Exciting Oscar (IRE) Rock'n Roll Kate (IRE) The Bulb (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Flemensfirth (USA) 5% · 2–40
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,280 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).
Oscar (IRE) 6.5% · 2–31
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Beneficial (GB) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Dushyantor (USA) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 9.7% of 1,917 runs since 2008 (149 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 162. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.7% from 139.
Lord of Appeal (GB) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 8.5% of 599 runs since 2008 (75 horses).
Milan (GB) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,856 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 309 · newest first

The latest 50 of 309 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 16 August 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
16 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Thelittleredfox (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Frank King Memorial Maiden Hurdle21.5f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran PU 125/1
03 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Merci Vieil Ami (IRE)J: Mr W Verling Curragh To Curragh Charity Cycle On Saturday August 29th Flat Race18f · Good · 17 ran 12th 300/1
21 Jul 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Merci Vieil Ami (IRE)J: Mr Finian Maguire Jennings Meats Flat Race15.5f · Good · 13 ran 8th 66/1
17 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Thelittleredfox (IRE)J: Mr W Verling Christy Lucey Transport Mares Finale (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Good · 12 ran 12th 150/1
15 Jan 25 Clonmel Mickthesoldier (IRE)J: Mr M J Kenneally Rathronan Maiden Hunters Chase20f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran PU 50/1
29 May 24 Wexford Bellachamps (IRE)J: Mr M J Kenneally Discover Wexford Handicap Hurdle (80-102)24f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran PU 80/1
09 May 24 Tipperary Forceonmyown (IRE)J: Mr M J Kenneally Millennium Surveys Ltd Mares Point-To-Point Flat Race18f · Yielding · 9 ran 9th 50/1
18 Apr 24 Clonmel Bellachamps (IRE)J: John Shinnick Cannonwood Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 10th 66/1
01 Apr 24 Cork Mickthesoldier (IRE)J: Mr M J Kenneally Pegus Horse Feed Point-To-Point Flat Race19f · Soft · 12 ran 12th 50/1
07 Dec 23 Clonmel Bellachamps (IRE)J: Diarmuid Moloney Kilsheelan Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 14 ran 12th 80/1
26 Nov 23 Cork Bellachamps (IRE)J: Diarmuid Moloney I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 17 ran 10th 200/1
26 Oct 23 Clonmel Bellachamps (IRE)J: J J Slevin Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Heavy · 16 ran 14th 66/1
28 Dec 22 Limerick Exciting Oscar (IRE)J: Denis O'Regan Harrison O'Dowd Solicitors Handicap Hurdle24f · Heavy · 18 ran PU 25/1
29 Nov 22 Punchestown Exciting Oscar (IRE)J: Danny Mullins William Hill Pick Your Places Handicap Chase (0-102)25.5f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 5th 4/1F
19 Nov 22 Punchestown Exciting Oscar (IRE)J: Ambrose McCurtin Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle (80-109)24.5f · Yielding · 22 ran 10th 25/1
07 Mar 22 Leopardstown Exciting Oscar (IRE)J: Danny Mullins TRI Equestrian Handicap Hurdle (80-109)24f · Yielding · 17 ran 13th 22/1
24 Feb 22 Thurles Exciting Oscar (IRE)J: Mr E P O'Brien Thurles Racecourse (Q.R.) Handicap Chase (0-109)25f · Soft · 17 ran 12th 4/1
29 Jan 22 Fairyhouse Exciting Oscar (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Follow Fairyhouse On Social Media Handicap Chase (0-109)25.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 2nd 16/1
08 Jan 22 Cork Exciting Oscar (IRE)J: Richard Deegan AIB Merchant Services Pay By Link Beginners Chase20f · Heavy · 12 ran 7th 3/1F
29 Dec 21 Limerick Exciting Oscar (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Limerick Racecourse Vets Novice Handicap Chase (0-109)22.5f · Heavy · 16 ran 6th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Denis Ahern's strike rate?
Denis Ahern has won 7 of 205 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.4% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Denis Ahern do best at?
Cork by strike rate: 2 wins from 30 runners (6.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Denis Ahern's Fair A/E?
0.74, from 205 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 27 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).