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Trainer profile

F Costello

675 runners in the lifetime window · 58 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 269 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
12–675
Wins / Runs
1.8%
Strike rate
n=675
52 (8%)
Placed
0.56
Fair A/E
n=674 · 0.43 incl. margin
−511.25
£1 level stake
n=675 at SP · −75.7%
£160k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.56).

Deterministic profile computed from 675 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Seamie Heffernan: 3.3% from 60
The read

The record is strongest at Ballinrobe (6.1%, n=33), clear of the yard's 1.8% baseline. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 0.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.25 and −145.00 to a £1 stake over 179 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Seamie Heffernan rides 9% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (3.3%, A/E 0.96). The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 61-180-day break: Fair A/E 0.00 across 77 runners (0% strike, −77.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0.6%−1.2
n=179 · A/E 0.25 · £1 −145.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.8
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.8
n=43 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −43.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.8
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
3%+1.2
n=33 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −7.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −1.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.3%−0.5
n=300 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −232.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−1.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Ballinrobe 6.1% vs 1.8% · n=33
On Good to Firm going 4.1% vs 1.8% · n=74
With horses switching code 0% vs 1.8% · n=116 · A/E 0.00
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 1.8% · n=77 · A/E 0.00
At Tipperary 0% vs 1.8% · n=73 · A/E 0.00
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 411 7 1.7% −306.50
Hurdle 192 5 2.6% −132.75
Chase 46 0 0% −46.00
NH Flat 26 0 0% −26.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 171 4 2.3% −105.00
Soft 170 1 0.6% −157.00
Standard (AW) 119 2 1.7% −103.50
Heavy 83 1 1.2% −79.75
Good to Firm 74 3 4.1% −34.00
Good to Soft 54 1 1.9% −28.00
Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 109 2 1.8% −93.50
Tipperary 73 0 0% −73.00
Cork 63 2 3.2% −37.00
Limerick 61 2 3.3% −29.00
Listowel 44 1 2.3% −10.00
Galway 36 0 0% −36.00
Ballinrobe 33 2 6.1% −14.00
Gowran Park 28 1 3.6% −24.75
Clonmel 27 0 0% −27.00
Naas 27 0 0% −27.00
Killarney 22 0 0% −22.00
Curragh 20 0 0% −20.00
Roscommon 19 0 0% −19.00
Bellewstown 16 1 6.3% −8.00
Thurles 14 0 0% −14.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 5 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 9 1 11.1% 0.64 −4.50
2nd–3rd fav 23 3 13% 1.09 −5.75
4th–6th fav 88 4 4.5% 0.87 −45.00
7th+ in betting 555 4 0.7% 0.32 −456.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Masterstonemason (IRE) 61 2 5 18 Nov 25
Diamondgeezer Luke (IRE) 55 3 7 17 Jul 17
Refuse To Sell (IRE) 48 3 5 2 Jul 15
Loughderg Princess (IRE) 41 0 3 24 Jul 17
Future Earner (IRE) 37 0 4 11 Nov 16
Fastnowfast (IRE) 31 0 3 22 Oct 12
Gameasapebble (IRE) 29 0 0 6 Sep 21
Bad Cigar (IRE) 29 0 4 12 Nov 19
Hard Times (IRE)from J F Levins 26 1 3 8 Apr 22
Luckydolly (IRE) 24 0 2 21 Oct 11
Mrs Henderson (GB) 20 0 0 23 Jun 14
Tale Of Fame (ITY) 18 0 0 22 Sep 17
All 58 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 58 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Padraig Roche (2); 49 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
005325141000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderSeamie Heffernan
9% of all rides
3.3% SR · A/E 0.96
RiderRWSR£1
Seamie Heffernan 60 2 3.3% −24.00
Mr R W Barron 32 0 0% −32.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
12
Archived wins
£162k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Masterstonemason (IRE) — Golf Memberships 2018 From 500 3-Y-O Hurdle Gowran Park · Sep 2017
£9,240
Lukes Desire (IRE) — Navigation Road Nursery (50-80) Cork · Aug 2009
£7,256
Diamondgeezer Luke (IRE) — Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2) Bellewstown · Jul 2014
£6,900
Notable horses
Diamondgeezer Luke (IRE) Refuse To Sell (IRE) Masterstonemason (IRE) Golden Nugget (IRE) Hard Times (IRE) Lukes Desire (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Big Bad Bob (IRE) 0% · 0–75
Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,568 runs since 2008 (314 horses).
Mastercraftsman (IRE) 3.3% · 2–61
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,636 runs since 2008 (842 horses).
War Chant (USA) 5.5% · 3–55
Progeny have won 10% of 953 runs since 2008 (64 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.2% from 129. Weakest on Good going: 6.8% from 251. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.5% from 186.
Brahms (USA) 6.3% · 3–48
Progeny have won 7.1% of 85 runs since 2008 (8 horses).
Bertolini (USA) 0% · 0–41
Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).
No Excuse Needed (GB) 0% · 0–39
Progeny have won 7.9% of 240 runs since 2008 (19 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 734 · newest first

The latest 50 of 734 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 5 February 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
05 Feb 26 Thurles Mister Rockefeller (IRE)J: Josh Williamson William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (0-100)23f · Soft · 17 ran PU 66/1
08 Jan 26 Clonmel Mister Rockefeller (IRE)J: G B Noonan Tipperary Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Heavy · 14 ran 7th 125/1
28 Dec 25 Limerick Mister Rockefeller (IRE)J: Ben Harvey Whitebox Property Group Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 18 ran PU 300/1
18 Nov 25 Limerick Masterstonemason (IRE)J: Sean Cleary-Farrell Limerick Races On Facebook Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 80/1
18 Nov 25 Limerick Mister Rockefeller (IRE)J: Ross Berry Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 14 ran 11th 200/1
26 Sep 25 Listowel Masterstonemason (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 12th 80/1
26 Sep 25 Listowel Gilah Mac (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh John J. Galvin Maiden Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran PU 250/1
22 Sep 25 Listowel Mister Rockefeller (IRE)J: Adam Browne-Souza Eric Browne Memorial Maiden11f · Heavy · 12 ran 12th 500/1
28 Jul 25 Galway Dreamersgame (IRE)J: Miss A B O'Connor Monami Construction Flat Race16.5f · Good · 19 ran PU 250/1
25 Jul 25 Kilbeggan Masterstonemason (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Massey Ferguson Johnston Farm Equipment Longford Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)19f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 12th 66/1
04 Jul 25 Wexford Masterstonemason (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Clearwater Construction Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)17f · Good · 14 ran 10th 28/1
02 Jun 25 Listowel Tunnel Of Hope (IRE)J: Tom Harney Bryan MacMahon (Pro/Am) Flat Race20f · Good · 9 ran PU 300/1
29 May 25 Limerick Masterstonemason (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh McMahons Builders Providers Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)19f · Good · 14 ran 5th 40/1
15 May 25 Clonmel Bright Lad (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Aisling Kennedy Memorial (C & G) Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Good · 5 ran 5th 150/1
14 May 25 Tipperary Tunnel Of Hope (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Tipperary Maiden Hurdle25f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran PU 250/1
14 May 25 Tipperary Masterstonemason (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder SIS Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)17f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 10th 22/1
24 Feb 25 Punchestown Masterstonemason (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Festival 2025 Group Tickets From 27 Euros Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)20f · Heavy · 15 ran 13th 100/1
28 Aug 24 Bellewstown Masterstonemason (IRE)J: Jordan Gainford John Purfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2)17f · Good · 16 ran PU 50/1
30 Jul 24 Galway Funny Face (IRE)J: James Ryan Caulfield Industrial Irish EBF Maiden7f · Yielding · 9 ran 9th 200/1
30 Jul 24 Galway Masterstonemason (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Latin Quarter Beginners Chase18f · Good · 7 ran 7th 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is F Costello's strike rate?
F Costello has won 12 of 675 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 1.8% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does F Costello do best at?
Ballinrobe by strike rate: 2 wins from 33 runners (6.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for F Costello?
Seamie Heffernan, with 60 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (3.3%).
What is F Costello's Fair A/E?
0.56, from 674 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).