Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.53).
Deterministic profile computed from 152 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
The read
The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 1% strike, Fair A/E 0.29 and −98.67 to a £1 stake over 103 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well over 2m1f – 2m4f (5.4%, n=56). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.00 across 72 runners (0% strike, −72.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.0
n=44 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −44.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.0
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.0
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.0
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1%−1.0
n=103 · A/E 0.29 · £1 −98.67
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f5.4% vs 2% · n=56
In Chase races4.2% vs 2% · n=71
In Hurdle races0% vs 2% · n=72
At Hexham4.2% vs 2% · n=48
Over 2m5f – 3m0% vs 2% · n=44
Over 1m5f – 2m0% vs 2% · n=30
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle7200%−72.00
Chase7134.2%−52.67
NH Flat900%−9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good6511.5%−59.00
Good to Soft3712.7%−29.00
Soft3113.2%−26.67
Heavy1200%−12.00
Good to Firm700%−7.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Hexham4824.2%−35.67
Carlisle2200%−22.00
Cartmel1900%−19.00
Sedgefield1600%−16.00
Catterick1616.3%−10.00
Wetherby700%−7.00
Uttoxeter500%−5.00
Kelso400%−4.00
Ayr400%−4.00
Doncaster200%−2.00
Musselburgh200%−2.00
Haydock200%−2.00
Aintree200%−2.00
Newcastle200%−2.00
Southwell100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 57722.6%−66.67
Class 46211.6%−54.00
Class 6800%−8.00
Class 3500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav8225%1.31+2.33
4th–6th fav3313%0.50−25.00
7th+ in betting11000%0.00−110.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f5635.4%−37.67
2m5f – 3m4400%−44.00
1m5f – 2m3000%−30.00
Over 3m2200%−22.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008700%−7.00
20091000%−10.00
20108112.5%+0.00
20111300%−13.00
2012200%−2.00
201310110%−4.00
20141417.1%−9.67
20151500%−15.00
2016900%−9.00
20171000%−10.00
2018600%−6.00
2019400%−4.00
2020300%−3.00
2021900%−9.00
20221400%−14.00
2023400%−4.00
2025800%−8.00
2026600%−6.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps12232.5%−103.67
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners6323.2%−49.00
11-13 runners4100%−41.00
5-7 runners2713.7%−22.67
14-16 runners1700%−17.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
2-4 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 20 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 20 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Henry De Bromhead (2); 4 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000005000078
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Tully Hill (GB) — Lady Taverners Handicap Chase Hexham · Jun 2010 · Class 4
£5,204
Milan Royale (GB) — Catterickbridge.co.uk Handicap Chase Catterick · Dec 2013 · Class 5
£3,422
Milan Royale (GB) — Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase Hexham · Nov 2014 · Class 5
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Garde Royale (IRE)4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 13.4% of 231 runs since 2008 (19 horses).
Milan (GB)13.3% · 2–15
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,869 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Dubai Destination (USA)0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,947 runs since 2014 (324 horses).
Classic Cliche (IRE)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8% of 2,328 runs since 2008 (231 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.1% from 244.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 179 · newest first
The latest 50 of 179 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 February 2005 to 19 May 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Kevin Hunter's strike rate?
Kevin Hunter has won 3 of 152 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kevin Hunter do best at?
Hexham by strike rate: 2 wins from 48 runners (4.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Kevin Hunter's Fair A/E?
0.53, from 152 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Kevin Hunter·SR 2%·A/E 0.53
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