Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95).
Deterministic profile computed from 1,159 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance20.4% when favouriteCallum Bewley: 7.3% from 206Claiming riders: 8.2%Sends off the favourite in 5% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Ayr (17.9%, n=67), clear of the yard's 8.1% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=32, Fair A/E 0.00). Callum Bewley rides 18% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.3%, A/E 0.86). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (17.2%, n=87). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.4% over 84 runners, 5.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Solway Sam (GB) — 9 wins from 69 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5%−3.1
n=199 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −52.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.1
n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.1
n=32 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −32.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
23.1%+15.0
n=13 · A/E 2.37 · £1 +5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.1%−2.0
n=33 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −12.50
When favourite
20.4%
n=54 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −14.67
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.2%+0.1
n=734 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −172.92
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Ayr17.9% vs 8.1% · n=67
Off a 0-7-day break17.2% vs 8.1% · n=87
On last-time-out winners16.1% vs 8.1% · n=93
With debutants0% vs 8.1% · n=32
With C&D winners12.9% vs 8.1% · n=225
Off a 61-180-day break2.4% vs 8.1% · n=84
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle832637.6%−293.84
Chase2612810.7%−46.72
NH Flat6634.5%−17.50
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good574437.5%−218.84
Good to Soft225177.6%−93.17
Soft204146.9%−77.30
Good to Firm911213.2%+47.25
Heavy65812.3%−16.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Perth4434510.2%−118.64
Hexham10287.8%−25.75
Carlisle8833.4%−73.75
Uttoxeter7756.5%−46.50
Ayr671217.9%+35.50
Cartmel6035%−31.25
Kelso5423.7%−31.50
Sedgefield4748.5%−7.00
Newcastle4237.1%+9.50
Musselburgh4212.4%−16.00
Market Rasen33412.1%−2.17
Aintree3226.3%+6.00
Wetherby1900%−19.00
Doncaster1400%−14.00
Haydock1119.1%+0.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4535478.8%−152.92
Class 5436358%−107.59
Class 313296.8%−59.80
Class 63412.9%−24.00
Class 22129.5%−12.75
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite661421.2%0.88−14.92
2nd–3rd fav2263314.6%0.91−56.14
4th–6th fav385359.1%1.14−71.00
7th+ in betting482122.5%0.75−216.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m449439.6%−117.97
2m1f – 2m4f375318.3%−76.84
1m5f – 2m260166.2%−132.25
Over 3m7545.3%−31.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200829413.8%+4.75
20097667.9%+43.50
2010631015.9%−6.50
20115747%−11.00
20123313%−21.00
20134724.3%−22.00
201468811.8%−17.17
2015141117.8%−64.25
2016127107.9%−16.75
20179477.4%−49.67
20187057.1%−33.25
20194224.8%−32.50
20201100%−11.00
20212414.2%−19.50
20224025%−24.00
20237279.7%−33.55
20245159.8%−3.50
20257057.1%−37.67
20264449.1%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps982878.9%−242.81
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners426317.3%−151.92
11-13 runners318134.1%−179.25
5-7 runners2483614.5%−42.89
14-16 runners118108.5%−5.50
17+ runners3026.7%+30.00
2-4 runners19210.5%−8.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 68 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Barry Murtagh (2) and Jonjo O'Neill (2); 35 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1381489514510552
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Wasdell Dundalk (FR) — Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Perth · Sep 2023 · Class 2
£13,962
Wasdell Dundalk (FR) — Phil Gowling Memorial Rhino.Bet Handicap Chase Carlisle · Oct 2024 · Class 3
£9,770
Presented (IRE) — 32red 10 Free Handicap Chase Ayr · Jan 2016 · Class 3
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,467 runs since 2008 (154 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.4% from 195.
Alflora (IRE)12.6% · 14–111
Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).
Cloudings (IRE)8.6% · 9–105
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,887 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 411. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,288 runs since 2016 (311 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 970. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 867. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 725.
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,449 runs since 2013 (300 horses).
Galileo (IRE)11.3% · 7–62
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,200 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,233 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,233 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 April 2005 to 31 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Lisa Harrison's strike rate?
Lisa Harrison has won 94 of 1,159 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lisa Harrison do best at?
Ayr by strike rate: 12 wins from 67 runners (17.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Lisa Harrison?
Callum Bewley, with 206 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (7.3%).
Is Lisa Harrison in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Lisa Harrison's Fair A/E?
0.95, from 1,158 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Lisa Harrison·SR 8.1%·A/E 0.95
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