Skip to content
Trainer profile

Mrs Caroline McCaldin

246 runners in the lifetime window · 57 individual horses
As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago 91% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
9–246
Wins / Runs
3.7%
Strike rate
n=246
42 (17%)
Placed
0.73
Fair A/E
n=246 · 0.61 incl. margin
−173.00
£1 level stake
n=246 at SP · −70.3%
£141k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.73). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 7% off breaks of two months or more (55 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 246 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7.3%
The read

The record is strongest at Down Royal (7.7%, n=39), clear of the yard's 3.7% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 7.3% (n=55, Fair A/E 1.28). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −83.50 to a £1 stake over 121 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well in Chase races (9.3%, n=75) and over 2m5f – 3m (8.1%, n=86). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 0% over 45 runners, 3.7pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.3%+3.6
n=55 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −26.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.7
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Debutants · first career start
6.7%+3.0
n=45 · A/E 2.23 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.7
n=24 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −24.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
20%
n=5 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −0.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.3%−0.4
n=121 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −83.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.7
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Chase races 9.3% vs 3.7% · n=75
Over 2m5f – 3m 8.1% vs 3.7% · n=86
On Heavy going 8.3% vs 3.7% · n=36
At Down Royal 7.7% vs 3.7% · n=39
Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 3.7% · n=45
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 3.7% · n=42
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 124 2 1.6% −105.00
Chase 75 7 9.3% −21.00
NH Flat 25 0 0% −25.00
Flat 22 0 0% −22.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 91 3 3.3% −67.50
Good 71 1 1.4% −65.50
Heavy 36 3 8.3% −6.50
Good to Soft 30 2 6.7% −15.50
Standard (AW) 14 0 0% −14.00
Good to Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Downpatrick 54 2 3.7% −43.00
Down Royal 39 3 7.7% −14.50
Perth 16 0 0% −16.00
Fairyhouse 16 1 6.3% −10.50
Punchestown 14 0 0% −14.00
Navan 14 0 0% −14.00
Dundalk (AW) 13 0 0% −13.00
Limerick 10 1 10% +3.00
Ayr 9 0 0% −9.00
Thurles 9 1 11.1% +2.00
Clonmel 6 0 0% −6.00
Kilbeggan 6 0 0% −6.00
Bellewstown 4 0 0% −4.00
Bangor-on-Dee 4 0 0% −4.00
Hexham 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 27 1 3.7% −19.00
Class 5 16 0 0% −16.00
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 1 16.7% 0.67 −1.50
2nd–3rd fav 22 3 13.6% 0.86 −4.50
4th–6th fav 67 5 7.5% 1.20 −16.00
7th+ in betting 151 0 0% 0.00 −151.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
81.9% completed · 199 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 75 80% 5 0 10 0 0
Hurdle 124 83.1% 0 2 18 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Samurai Cracker (IRE) 24 2 6 24 May 24
Rubiana (IRE)from Sarah Dawson · then Gavin Cromwell 18 1 7 8 Oct 21
Santa Anna (IRE) 17 0 4 31 Oct 19
Rowdy Romeo (IRE) 13 1 4 20 Sep 24
Faith Loving (FR) 11 1 2 10 May 24
Anjilina (IRE) 9 0 1 17 Mar 20
Gorthill (FR)then Stephen Carlin 8 1 3 14 Jul 25
Bronze Bull (IRE) 8 0 0 18 Jun 22
Ballymist (IRE)then Terence O'Brien 8 0 2 14 May 22
Ballymagee (IRE)then Robbie Llewellyn 7 0 1 1 Aug 23
Martalink (FR) 6 0 0 12 Jun 21
Missie's Boy (GB) 6 0 0 29 Jun 20
All 57 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 57 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Sarah Dawson (3); 45 had their first archived run for this yard.

14 have since run for another yard, most often for Robbie Llewellyn (2); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0050900007510
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJ J Slevin
15% of all rides
5.4% SR · A/E 0.98
RiderRWSR£1
J J Slevin 37 2 5.4% −21.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→
9
Archived wins
£141k
Prize money
2023
Best season · 3 wins
Rowdy Romeo (IRE) — Thurles Handicap Hurdle Thurles · Mar 2024
£9,440
Samurai Cracker (IRE) — Follow On Instagram At bluegrasshorsefeed Rated Novice Chase Down Royal · Mar 2021
£8,555
Faith Loving (FR) — Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase (0-102) Fairyhouse · Nov 2023
£7,080
Notable horses
Samurai Cracker (IRE) Rubiana (IRE) Rowdy Romeo (IRE) Faith Loving (FR) Gorthill (FR) It'll Do Rightly (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Yeats (IRE) 0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,858 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.
Mr Dinos (IRE) 8.3% · 2–24
Progeny have won 7.3% of 409 runs since 2011 (33 horses).
Scorpion (IRE) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 9.1% of 6,329 runs since 2011 (609 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.1% from 142.
Canford Cliffs (IRE) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,091 runs since 2015 (314 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 263.
Conduit (IRE) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 6.2% of 406 runs since 2019 (57 horses).
Ballingarry (IRE) 9.1% · 1–11
Progeny have won 10.4% of 2,432 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.4% from 125.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 246 · newest first

The latest 50 of 246 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 June 2016 to 10 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
10 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Ballyeagle (GB)J: Mr B Dunleavy Fairyhouse Christmas Party December 12th Point-To-Point Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 5 ran 4th 66/1
26 Mar 26 Clonmel Ballydiamond (IRE)J: Mr O McGill Next Race Meeting April 2nd (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 9/1
17 Mar 26 Down Royal Ballyphilip (IRE)J: Mr N McParlan Bluegrass Resolve Cube Hunters Chase20.5f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran PU 11/2
14 Jul 25 Downpatrick Gorthill (FR)J: J J Slevin Downpatrick Racecourse Family Funday Supporters Handicap Chase19.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 4/1
03 Jul 25 Bellewstown Gorthill (FR)J: Mr D McGill Seamus Mulvaney Bookmaker, Crockafotha (Q.R.) Race12.5f · Good · 5 ran 5th 66/1
23 May 25 Downpatrick Gorthill (FR)J: Mr N McParlan Dennison Commercials, Volvo Truck Hunters Chase29f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 11/2
12 Apr 25 Bellewstown Doctors Hill (GB)J: Mr N McParlan Pat And Eddie Smith Memorial (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 10/1
17 Mar 25 Down Royal Ballyphilip (IRE)J: Mr N McParlan Bluegrass Mare Prepare Hunters Chase19.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 7/1
12 Nov 24 Fairyhouse Ballyphilip (IRE)J: Mr N McParlan INHSC Supporting Point-To-Points Hunters Chase24.5f · Good · 6 ran F 3/1
20 Sep 24 Downpatrick Rowdy Romeo (IRE)J: J J Slevin Watch Racing TV With Free Trial Now Rated Novice Hurdle21.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 15/2
24 May 24 Downpatrick Samurai Cracker (IRE)J: Mr O McGill Dennison Commercials Hunters Chase29f · Good · 9 ran PU 28/1
24 May 24 Downpatrick Gorthill (FR)J: Mr N McParlan Dennison Commercials Hunters Chase29f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 11/1
10 May 24 Downpatrick Faith Loving (FR)J: Richard Deegan Joe Rea Memorial Handicap Chase (0-102)23.5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 28/1
06 May 24 Down Royal Ballyphilip (IRE)J: Mr N McParlan C&C White Maiden Hunters Chase23f · Good · 12 ran 1st 9/2
03 May 24 Punchestown Gorthill (FR)J: Mr O McGill Event Power Champion Hunters Chase24.5f · Yielding · 14 ran PU 80/1
03 May 24 Punchestown Royal Rendezvous (IRE)J: Mr B Dunleavy Event Power Champion Hunters Chase24.5f · Yielding · 14 ran PU 66/1
30 Apr 24 Punchestown Rowdy Romeo (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Blood-Stock.com Full Circle Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 24 ran 17th 66/1
26 Apr 24 Downpatrick Faith Loving (FR)J: J J Slevin Boardsmill Sires Handicap Chase (0-109)19.5f · Good · 10 ran 7th 12/1
26 Apr 24 Downpatrick Ballycairn (IRE)J: J J Slevin Toals Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle (80-102)23f · Good · 13 ran 10th 33/1
14 Apr 24 Down Royal Ballycairn (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Choose Fibrus Broadband Handicap Hurdle (80-95)22f · Yielding · 15 ran 7th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mrs Caroline McCaldin's strike rate?
Mrs Caroline McCaldin has won 9 of 246 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.7% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mrs Caroline McCaldin do best at?
Down Royal by strike rate: 3 wins from 39 runners (7.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Mrs Caroline McCaldin in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mrs Caroline McCaldin's Fair A/E?
0.73, from 246 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 14 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).