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Trainer profile

Nigel Carolan

136 runners in the lifetime window · 16 individual horses
As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Nov 2022
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
1–136
Wins / Runs
0.7%
Strike rate
n=136
9 (7%)
Placed
0.26
Fair A/E
n=136 · 0.20 incl. margin
−125.00
£1 level stake
n=136 at SP · −91.9%
£19,723
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.26).

Deterministic profile computed from 136 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 0.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−0.7
n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−0.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−0.7
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−0.7
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−0.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−0.7
n=94 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −94.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 0.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Flat races 1.7% vs 0.7% · n=58 · A/E 0.63
With claiming riders up 0% vs 0.7% · n=94 · A/E 0.00
In Hurdle races 0% vs 0.7% · n=62 · A/E 0.00
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 0.7% · n=50 · A/E 0.00
With a new jockey booking 1.3% vs 0.7% · n=77 · A/E 0.47
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 62 0 0% −62.00
Flat 58 1 1.7% −47.00
NH Flat 9 0 0% −9.00
Chase 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 36 0 0% −36.00
Soft 32 0 0% −32.00
Heavy 23 1 4.3% −12.00
Good to Firm 20 0 0% −20.00
Standard (AW) 17 0 0% −17.00
Good to Soft 5 0 0% −5.00
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Navan 19 0 0% −19.00
Dundalk (AW) 17 0 0% −17.00
Fairyhouse 12 0 0% −12.00
Tramore 8 0 0% −8.00
Sligo 7 0 0% −7.00
Down Royal 7 0 0% −7.00
Kilbeggan 6 0 0% −6.00
Punchestown 6 0 0% −6.00
Naas 6 0 0% −6.00
Limerick 6 1 16.7% +5.00
Gowran Park 6 0 0% −6.00
Clonmel 5 0 0% −5.00
Roscommon 5 0 0% −5.00
Ballinrobe 4 0 0% −4.00
Wexford 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 0 0% 0.00 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 3 0 0% 0.00 −3.00
4th–6th fav 21 1 4.8% 0.95 −10.00
7th+ in betting 111 0 0% 0.00 −111.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Orion's Might (IRE)then Matt Sheppard 36 0 3 22 Oct 15
Last Garrison (IRE)then Mark Michael McNiff 24 1 3 24 Oct 17
Queen Meave (IRE) 13 0 0 2 Nov 18
Drumbar Millie (IRE) 12 0 0 18 Jun 21
Drumbaragh (IRE)then Patrick Martin 11 0 1 18 Jun 21
High Destiny (IRE)from Thomas Gibney 9 0 2 20 May 12
Widowmaker (IRE) 6 0 0 28 Aug 12
The Nutcracker (IRE)then Thomas Gibney 5 0 0 24 Jul 13
Use Your Illusion (IRE) 4 0 0 13 Nov 22
St Jimmy (GB) 4 0 0 5 Jul 13
Drumbaragh House (IRE) 4 0 0 1 May 10
Mr Carlioni (IRE)from Noel Meade 3 0 0 13 Jun 09
All 16 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 16 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 13 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 12 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000000000800
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Ger Fox 20 0 0% −20.00
P J O'Hanlon 14 0 0% −14.00
Danny Grant 6 0 0% −6.00
Mr N Carolan 6 0 0% −6.00
John Tobin 6 0 0% −6.00
Gary Phillips 6 0 0% −6.00
Ross Coakley 3 0 0% −3.00
Colin Keane 3 0 0% −3.00
Connor King 3 0 0% −3.00
Fergal Lynch 3 0 0% −3.00
Rachael Blackmore 3 0 0% −3.00
A P Heskin 3 0 0% −3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→
1
Archived wins
£19,723
Prize money
2015
Best season · 1 win
Last Garrison (IRE) — Ladbrokes Munster National Tomorrow At Limerick Racecourse Handicap (47-65) (Div 1) Limerick · Oct 2015
£5,520
Notable horses
Last Garrison (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Antonius Pius (USA) 0% · 0–41
Progeny have won 8.1% of 3,236 runs since 2009 (195 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5% from 339.
Mustameet (USA) 4.2% · 1–24
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,161 runs since 2013 (103 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.5% from 248. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 424.
Power (GB) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 9.5% of 2,725 runs since 2016 (195 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.3% from 353. Weakest on Heavy going: 6.2% from 161.
Whitmore's Conn (USA) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 9% of 1,102 runs since 2008 (78 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.8% from 329.
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,493 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Redback (GB) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 7.6% of 2,888 runs since 2008 (249 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 3.9% from 181.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 136 · newest first

The latest 50 of 136 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 December 2008 to 13 November 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
13 Nov 22 Navan Use Your Illusion (IRE)J: Conor Brassil Kilberry Pub & Kitchen Maiden Hurdle20f · Yielding · 19 ran 13th 150/1
17 Sep 22 Navan Use Your Illusion (IRE)J: Conor Brassil Bar One Racing Bet On Mobile Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 15 ran 10th 250/1
12 Aug 22 Tramore Use Your Illusion (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Brian Griffin Memorial Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 8th 200/1
07 Nov 21 Navan Use Your Illusion (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Kevin Bell Repatriation Trust (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Good · 9 ran 7th 100/1
18 Jun 21 Down Royal Drumbar Millie (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Craft Event Co Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1)20.5f · Good · 15 ran PU 33/1
18 Jun 21 Down Royal Drumbaragh (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Future Ticketing Mares Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 5th 250/1
06 Jun 21 Kilbeggan (IRE) Drumbar Millie (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Follow Kilbeggan On Twitter Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 40/1
24 May 21 Ballinrobe Drumbar Millie (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Tim Kelly Group Handicap Hurdle (80-102)22f · Heavy · 14 ran 8th 100/1
21 May 21 Wexford Drumbaragh (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2)17f · Heavy · 10 ran PU 33/1
17 Mar 21 Down Royal Drumbaragh (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Bluegrasshorsefeed.com Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 20 ran 10th 150/1
06 Mar 21 Navan Drumbaragh (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Racing Again March 13th Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding To Soft · 18 ran 13th 250/1
18 Dec 20 Navan Drumbaragh (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Irish Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 20 ran 20th 150/1
25 Oct 20 Wexford Drumbar Millie (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Mares Hurdle20f · Soft To Heavy · 8 ran 5th 66/1
15 Oct 20 Tramore Drumbar Millie (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Ardmore Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Yielding · 12 ran 6th 25/1
11 Sep 20 Kilbeggan Drumbar Millie (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Tullamore Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Yielding · 14 ran 5th 150/1
28 Jan 20 Down Royal Drumbaragh (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Molson Coors Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft · 19 ran 16th 100/1
10 Jan 20 Thurles Drumbaragh (IRE)J: Mr D G Lavery Holy Cross Flat Race16f · Yielding · 14 ran 14th 50/1
28 Apr 19 Sligo Drumbaragh (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Sligo Supporters Annual Badge (Pro/Am) Flat Race18f · Good · 9 ran 7th 14/1
14 Apr 19 Tramore Drumbaragh (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 100/1
12 Jan 19 Fairyhouse (IRE) Drumbaragh (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Become The Face Of BetVictor (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race16f · Good · 7 ran 7th 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Nigel Carolan's strike rate?
Nigel Carolan has won 1 of 136 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 0.7% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Nigel Carolan's Fair A/E?
0.26, from 136 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 3 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).