What is Patrick J Flynn's strike rate?

Patrick J Flynn has won 285 of 3,524 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Patrick J Flynn do best at?

Tramore by strike rate: 26 wins from 192 runners (13.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Patrick J Flynn?

Danny Grant, with 773 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 79 (10.2%).

Is Patrick J Flynn in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Patrick J Flynn's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 3,521 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Patrick J Flynn

3,524 runners in the lifetime window · 281 individual horses

As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 4 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

285–3,524

Wins / Runs

8.1%

Strike rate

n=3,524

856 (24%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=3,521 · 0.83 incl. margin

−1,241.17

£1 level stake

n=3,524 at SP · −35.2%

£3.71m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 190 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 10% (112 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,524 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 24.7% when favourite Danny Grant: 10.2% from 773 Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Wexford (21.9%, n=32), clear of the yard's 8.1% baseline. Debutants struggle at 2.9% (n=209, Fair A/E 0.94). Danny Grant rides 22% of the entries and edges the yard's average (10.2% vs 8.1%, A/E 1.21) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Firm going (26.5%, n=34) and off a 0-7-day break (16.4%, n=140). 11 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Arthur Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap at Galway (Jul 2009, £150,500). The stable star of the record: Bahrain Storm (IRE) — 12 wins from 67 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.1%−3.0

n=624 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −267.25

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.9%−3.2

n=41 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −11.00

Debutants · first career start

2.9%−5.2

n=209 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −129.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.8%+1.7

n=112 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −35.67

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.3%−3.8

n=94 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −72.67

When favourite

24.7%

n=239 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −44.37

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.2%−0.9

n=1,452 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −505.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.2%+0.1

n=97 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −19.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Firm going 26.5% vs 8.1% · n=34

At Wexford 21.9% vs 8.1% · n=32

On last-time-out winners 15.7% vs 8.1% · n=274

Off a 0-7-day break 16.4% vs 8.1% · n=140

With G B Noonan 16.7% vs 8.1% · n=42

With Gary Carroll 15.5% vs 8.1% · n=71

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,808 233 8.3% −932.26

Hurdle 561 40 7.1% −246.91

NH Flat 83 6 7.2% −28.00

Chase 72 6 8.3% −34.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 940 48 5.1% −559.28

Good 846 62 7.3% −313.07

Standard (AW) 603 68 11.3% −168.09

Good to Firm 444 51 11.5% +25.96

Heavy 404 27 6.7% −168.42

Good to Soft 253 20 7.9% −69.15

Firm 34 9 26.5% +10.88

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 598 66 11% −177.09

Gowran Park 365 20 5.5% −185.88

Cork 283 19 6.7% −69.77

Limerick 217 8 3.7% −130.75

Curragh 207 14 6.8% −67.25

Leopardstown 195 11 5.6% −83.50

Tramore 192 26 13.5% −38.80

Tipperary 185 15 8.1% −12.87

Clonmel 161 15 9.3% −57.00

Naas 153 9 5.9% −97.50

Killarney 106 12 11.3% +9.25

Navan 103 8 7.8% −30.75

Galway 97 4 4.1% −55.00

Listowel 93 7 7.5% −44.84

Fairyhouse 87 7 8% −35.40

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 92 8 8.7% −14.75

Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 317 74 23.3% 1.10 −47.54

2nd–3rd fav 603 105 17.4% 1.32 +37.87

4th–6th fav 891 65 7.3% 0.99 −294.50

7th+ in betting 1,713 41 2.4% 0.75 −937.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m – 1m1f 832 63 7.6% −303.26

1m2f – 1m4f 817 78 9.5% −236.91

1m5f – 2m 745 57 7.7% −319.03

6f – 7f 717 52 7.3% −246.17

2m1f – 2m4f 230 14 6.1% −124.25

Under 6f 133 18 13.5% +9.70

2m5f – 3m 50 3 6% −21.25

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 266 14 5.3% −159.00

2009 247 21 8.5% −66.87

2010 323 34 10.5% −100.37

2011 270 20 7.4% −126.14

2012 300 33 11% −31.77

2013 251 16 6.4% −123.17

2014 252 21 8.3% −100.77

2015 170 14 8.2% −11.75

2016 148 13 8.8% −29.63

2017 141 10 7.1% −72.00

2018 146 11 7.5% −40.12

2019 154 14 9.1% −59.03

2020 130 4 3.1% −80.67

2021 115 8 7% −46.92

2022 127 8 6.3% −59.37

2023 115 3 2.6% −90.00

2024 125 16 12.8% +1.25

2025 124 11 8.9% −13.17

2026 120 14 11.7% −31.67

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,417 217 9% −535.84

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 1,400 101 7.2% −572.21

11-13 runners 834 91 10.9% −108.24

17+ runners 648 35 5.4% −233.00

8-10 runners 460 42 9.1% −233.62

5-7 runners 175 15 8.6% −89.35

2-4 runners 7 1 14.3% −4.75

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Aunty Audrey (IRE) 63 6 16 11 Apr 22

Walnut Beach (IRE) 60 4 19 31 Dec 25

Hes Our Music (IRE)then R Donohoe 57 9 24 25 Nov 16

Waydownsouth (IRE) 56 8 21 25 Oct 15

Dixie Highway (IRE) 55 4 18 18 Aug 18

Knights Templar (IRE)from Ciaran O'Brien 51 6 13 11 Aug 17

Buttons And Bows (IRE) 48 4 11 11 Nov 23

Final Flashback (IRE)from D K Weld 47 8 12 5 Apr 14

Worldly Wise (GB) 46 3 20 5 Nov 11

Whatharm (IRE) 45 7 11 26 Mar 24

Hangar Five (IRE) 45 2 16 3 Oct 14

Jeangeorges (IRE) 45 4 10 21 Aug 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 281 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 20 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 54 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard; 51 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

4 from 8

Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

94649991076109

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDanny Grant

22% of all rides
10.2% SR · A/E 1.21

RiderRWSR£1

Danny Grant 773 79 10.2% −183.52

Conor Hoban 192 19 9.9% −41.04

Robyn Donaghue-Leahy 192 23 12% −41.42

Ian Queally 138 4 2.9% −82.00

Alan Persse 126 5 4% −57.00

Keith Maher 94 2 2.1% −66.00

Leigh Roche 80 7 8.8% −6.25

W J Lee 72 8 11.1% −12.42

Gary Carroll 71 11 15.5% +9.38

Pat Smullen 70 9 12.9% −28.50

Stephen Gray 64 4 6.3% −31.17

Chris Hayes 61 2 3.3% −40.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

347

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.70m

Prize money

2010

Best season · 34 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Bahrain Storm (IRE) — Arthur Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap Galway · Jul 2009 · Grade A

£150,500

She's Our Mark (GB) — Give Thanks Stakes (group 3) Cork · Aug 2010 · Group 3

£52,000

She's Our Mark (GB) — Desmond Stakes (Group 3) Leopardstown · Aug 2007 · Group 3

£45,500

Notable horses

Bahrain Storm (IRE) Hes Our Music (IRE) Waydownsouth (IRE) Final Flashback (IRE) She's Our Mark (GB) Whatharm (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Free Eagle (IRE) 9.5% · 16–168

Progeny have won 10.6% of 2,419 runs since 2019 (190 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.1% from 131.

Acclamation (GB) 12.5% · 17–136

Progeny have won 10% of 19,716 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Tomba (GB) 3.9% · 5–129

Progeny have won 7.8% of 847 runs since 2008 (52 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 11.1% from 216.

Chevalier (IRE) 12.8% · 10–78

Progeny have won 9.9% of 1,683 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 13.9% from 417.

Rip Van Winkle (IRE) 10.7% · 8–75

Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,947 runs since 2014 (324 horses).

Zoffany (IRE) 8.2% · 6–73

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,783 runs since 2015 (799 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,319 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,319 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Soaring Sun (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy BAR 1 Betting 'Acca Boost' Apprentice Handicap12f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 9/4F

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Carrigans Grove (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 11/2

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Duke Otto (IRE)J: Conor Smithers Ballymaloe Foods Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 21 ran 10th 40/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Key Witness (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Ryans Cleaning Race7f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 5th 7/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Not Just Any Eagle (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap12f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 8/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Mothel Abbey (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden8f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 150/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Jordan Breeze (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy View Restaurant At Dundalk Handicap5f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 5/2F

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Gallo Dell Cielo (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Happy Halloween Handicap12f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 100/30

23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Surpass And Shine (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Braham Electrical Handicap6f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 4/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Carrigans Grove (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse 5th & 13th December Handicap6f · Yielding · 21 ran 5th 13/2

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Nottooshabby (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy 1xBet.ie Supports The Curragh Handicap10f · Yielding · 24 ran 5th 22/1

18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Key Witness (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Bahrain Turf Club Knockaire Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 40/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Jordan Breeze (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy October Racing With 1xBet.ie Apprentice Handicap5f · Soft · 17 ran 5th 4/1F

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Gallo Dell Cielo (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Isuzu Ireland Handicap14f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 7th 16/1

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Magna Gee Gee (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 15th 150/1

11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Not Just Any Eagle (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Colm White Bookmaker Beggar's End Handicap16f · Soft · 17 ran 5th 33/1

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Key Witness (IRE)J: Alan Persse Naas Racecourse Handicap7f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 14/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Mothel Abbey (IRE)J: Alan Persse www.thurlesraces.ie Maiden16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 9th 200/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Just Another Eagle (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Welcome Back To Thurles Handicap12.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 12th 9/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Imperial Dream (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 8th 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 4) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Patrick J Flynn's strike rate?: Patrick J Flynn has won 285 of 3,524 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick J Flynn do best at?: Tramore by strike rate: 26 wins from 192 runners (13.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick J Flynn?: Danny Grant, with 773 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 79 (10.2%).
Is Patrick J Flynn in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Patrick J Flynn's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 3,521 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.