Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92).
Deterministic profile computed from 972 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Mar–Apr32.4% when favouritePaddy Aspell: 6.7% from 90Claiming riders: 7.6%Sends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read
New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=42, Fair A/E 0.00). Paddy Aspell rides 9% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.7%, A/E 0.83). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (12.1%, n=116). The stable star of the record: Justwhateverulike (IRE) — 6 wins from 39 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.2%−1.8
n=251 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −105.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.0
n=42 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −42.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.0
n=36 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −36.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4.3%−2.7
n=23 · A/E 1.01 · £1 +11.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.8%−2.2
n=21 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
32.4%
n=37 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +4.76
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.6%+0.6
n=461 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −155.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Miss J Walton24.3% vs 7% · n=37
With horses switching code0.8% vs 7% · n=119
On last-time-out winners13.9% vs 7% · n=72
With new recruits0% vs 7% · n=42
With debutants0% vs 7% · n=36
Off a 8-14-day break12.1% vs 7% · n=116
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase470459.6%−99.54
Hurdle453224.9%−223.62
NH Flat3812.6%−12.00
Flat1100%−11.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good280113.9%−149.25
Soft243208.2%−68.62
Good to Soft234187.7%−69.38
Heavy158159.5%−24.91
Good to Firm5347.5%−30.00
Standard (AW)400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kelso231198.2%−76.67
Hexham160127.5%−48.12
Ayr10832.8%−91.00
Sedgefield9699.4%−28.00
Carlisle9277.6%+3.75
Newcastle9188.8%−18.62
Perth7345.5%−14.00
Musselburgh5347.5%−18.50
Catterick1600%−16.00
Wetherby1400%−14.00
Cartmel1100%−11.00
Bangor-on-Dee8225%+5.00
Newcastle (AW)400%−4.00
Haydock400%−4.00
Hamilton300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4455296.4%−193.67
Class 5367308.2%−87.87
Class 310576.7%−30.62
Class 62300%−23.00
Class 216212.5%−5.00
Class 1600%−6.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite451431.1%1.28+5.51
2nd–3rd fav1382316.7%1.05−11.67
4th–6th fav335206%0.75−122.00
7th+ in betting454112.4%0.78−218.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f356298.1%−124.29
2m5f – 3m295227.5%−71.62
1m5f – 2m22094.1%−133.75
Over 3m9288.7%−7.50
1m – 1m1f500%−5.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
6f – 7f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200810765.6%−59.50
20097068.6%+18.00
20107633.9%−58.00
20117667.9%−37.75
20123226.3%−18.00
20134012.5%−33.50
20142700%−27.00
20152129.5%+27.00
20163925.1%−32.38
20171815.6%−11.00
201837410.8%−10.17
201947612.8%−18.12
20203725.4%−28.62
20216834.4%−50.50
202262812.9%+24.00
202378810.3%+18.38
202459711.9%+19.00
20255311.9%−43.00
20262500%−25.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps784658.3%−202.66
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners357267.3%−151.62
11-13 runners24793.6%−136.00
5-7 runners2282511%−42.54
14-16 runners9466.4%+19.00
2-4 runners2528%−14.00
17+ runners2100%−21.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 88 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 32 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from C Storey (3) and Ronald O'Neill (2); 28 had their first archived run for this yard.
9 have since run for another yard, most often for Sue Smith (2); 51 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
45111345005088
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
90
Archived wins
£812k
Prize money
2006
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Claud And Goldie (IRE) — Edinburgh Gin Veterans' Handicap Chase (Leg 12 Of The 2019 Veterans' Chase Series) Kelso · Dec 2019 · Class 2
£25,320
Claud And Goldie (IRE) — Edinburgh Gin Chase (Limited Handicap) (GBB Race) Kelso · Feb 2021 · Class 2
£14,076
Storymaker (GB) — Edinburgh Woollen Mill Novices' Handicap Chase Carlisle · Mar 2009 · Class 3
Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,657 runs since 2008 (423 horses).
Midnight Legend (GB)5.8% · 4–69
Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).
Cloudings (IRE)6.5% · 4–62
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,887 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 411. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.
Tipsy Creek (USA)6.7% · 3–45
Progeny have won 6.8% of 443 runs since 2008 (30 horses).
Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,183 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Medicean (GB)8.3% · 3–36
Progeny have won 10.4% of 9,890 runs since 2008 (682 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,300 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,300 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 13 June 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Sandy Forster's strike rate?
Sandy Forster has won 68 of 972 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Sandy Forster do best at?
Sedgefield by strike rate: 9 wins from 96 runners (9.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Sandy Forster?
Paddy Aspell, with 90 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (6.7%).
What is Sandy Forster's Fair A/E?
0.92, from 970 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Sandy Forster·SR 7%·A/E 0.92
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