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Trainer profile

Toby Lawes

453 runners in the lifetime window · 67 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 14 days ago 96% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
63–453
Wins / Runs
13.9%
Strike rate
n=453
166 (37%)
Placed
1.03
Fair A/E
n=453 · 0.88 incl. margin
−91.16
£1 level stake
n=453 at SP · −20.1%
£705k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
14.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03). With a claiming rider up the record reads 17% (36 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 453 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 42.4% when favourite Kevin Brogan: 13.8% from 167 Claiming riders: 16.7% Sends off the favourite in 13% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Plumpton (20%, n=45), clear of the yard's 13.9% baseline. Debutants struggle at 6.3% (n=32, Fair A/E 0.73). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 10.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.84 and −33.66 to a £1 stake over 138 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Kevin Brogan rides 37% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (13.8%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in NH Flat races (21.6%, n=37). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 6% over 67 runners, 7.9pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the bet365 Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh (Feb 2025, £22,780). The stable star of the record: Kap Auteuil (FR) — 6 wins from 31 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.1%−3.8
n=138 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −33.66
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.4%−2.5
n=35 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −15.17
Debutants · first career start
6.3%−7.6
n=32 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −21.25
First-time headgear · true-first definition
15%+1.1
n=20 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −8.67
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12.5%−1.4
n=8 · A/E 2.27 · £1 +2.00
When favourite
42.4%
n=59 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +6.64
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
16.7%+2.8
n=36 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −17.76
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
16.7%+2.8
n=6 · A/E 2.23 · £1 +28.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a break of 180+ days 6% vs 13.9% · n=67
With C&D winners 22.2% vs 13.9% · n=36
In NH Flat races 21.6% vs 13.9% · n=37
On last-time-out winners 20.3% vs 13.9% · n=64
With debutants 6.3% vs 13.9% · n=32
At Plumpton 20% vs 13.9% · n=45
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 262 32 12.2% −78.61
Chase 137 22 16.1% −45.80
NH Flat 37 8 21.6% +40.25
Flat 17 1 5.9% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 144 20 13.9% −55.84
Good to Soft 143 19 13.3% −30.21
Soft 121 18 14.9% −30.74
Heavy 29 4 13.8% −9.37
Standard (AW) 14 2 14.3% +37.00
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Fontwell 67 9 13.4% −15.29
Plumpton 45 9 20% −14.16
Uttoxeter 28 3 10.7% −10.21
Huntingdon 23 3 13% −3.12
Kempton 23 4 17.4% −2.63
Southwell 22 5 22.7% +0.00
Doncaster 21 2 9.5% −14.67
Warwick 20 2 10% −10.67
Newbury 19 2 10.5% −4.50
Lingfield 18 1 5.6% −15.12
Stratford 14 4 28.6% +1.70
Ffos Las 12 1 8.3% −7.00
Fakenham 12 3 25% −3.38
Hereford 11 2 18.2% −5.34
Market Rasen 10 1 10% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 228 27 11.8% −82.28
Class 5 126 23 18.3% −16.21
Class 3 64 10 15.6% −3.24
Class 2 22 1 4.5% −20.43
Class 1 10 1 10% +24.00
Class 6 3 1 33.3% +7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 63 27 42.9% 1.28 +10.64
2nd–3rd fav 133 21 15.8% 0.87 −38.80
4th–6th fav 154 14 9.1% 1.12 +6.00
7th+ in betting 103 1 1% 0.29 −69.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
83.5% completed · 399 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 137 78.1% 4 3 22 1 0
Hurdle 262 86.3% 2 2 31 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Kap Auteuil (FR)from David Arbuthnot 31 6 8 11 Apr 25
Sublime Heights (IRE) 25 4 10 22 Dec 24
Duhallow Tommy (IRE) 23 5 10 8 Apr 26
Sir Rock (IRE)from Olivia Hegarty 19 4 7 4 May 26
Alkopop (GER)from David Arbuthnot 18 3 7 4 Apr 24
Kannapolis (IRE)from Michael Easterby 17 2 7 7 Mar 23
Zacony Rebel (IRE)then Sarah-Jayne Davies 16 3 4 7 Jan 24
Surrey Quest (IRE)from Nicky Henderson 13 2 5 14 Mar 26
Onewayortother (FR)then Jamie Moore & Josh Moore 12 1 4 25 Nov 25
Nashville Nipper (IRE) 12 1 8 14 Feb 24
Surrey Lord (IRE) 11 3 6 17 Jan 26
La Higuera (IRE) 10 2 5 1 Mar 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 67 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 32 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David Arbuthnot (4) and Nicky Henderson (3); 28 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
202016990001117811
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderKevin Brogan
37% of all rides
13.8% SR · A/E 1.04
RiderRWSR£1
Kevin Brogan 167 23 13.8% −25.86
Tom Cannon 119 17 14.3% −3.37
Harry Bannister 45 6 13.3% −17.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
63
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£705k
Prize money
2022
Best season · 14 wins
St Pancras (GB) — bet365 Scottish Triumph Hurdle (Juvenile Hurdle) (Listed) (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Feb 2025 · Listed
£22,780
Surrey Quest (IRE) — Coral Mandarin Handicap Chase Newbury · Dec 2023 · Class 3
£16,186
Gnomon (GB) — Ascot Racecourse Supports Horse Rangers Hampton Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Ascot · Mar 2026 · Class 2
£13,203
Notable horses
Kap Auteuil (FR) Duhallow Tommy (IRE) Sublime Heights (IRE) Sir Rock (IRE) Alkopop (GER) Zacony Rebel (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Kapgarde (FR) 15% · 6–40
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,630 runs since 2008 (725 horses).
Getaway (GER) 16.7% · 6–36
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,979 runs since 2016 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Arcadio (GER) 16% · 4–25
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,979 runs since 2011 (375 horses).
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 21.7% · 5–23
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,493 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Milan (GB) 8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,869 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Jukebox Jury (IRE) 15.8% · 3–19
Progeny have won 13.5% of 2,244 runs since 2016 (256 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.3% from 155.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 453 · newest first

The latest 50 of 453 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 October 2019 to 21 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
21 Oct 26 Worcester Pounds At The Time (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 10/1
21 Oct 26 Worcester Klimt Madrik (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Fbc Manby Bowdler 'chasing Excellence' Beginners' Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 3/1
10 Oct 26 Chepstow Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'four Years Old' Hurdle Race (a Limited Handicap) (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 8/1
27 Sep 26 Epsom Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap Stakes (For Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 13 ran 4th 100/1
24 May 26 Fontwell Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan KSR Lighting Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/5
06 May 26 Fontwell Flash Man (FR)J: Tom Cannon Mercedes-Benz Of Chichester Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 14 ran 2nd 11/8J
04 May 26 Warwick Sir Rock (IRE)J: Tom Cannon Hazelton Mountford Insurance Brokers Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Good · 8 ran PU 7/1
25 Apr 26 Sandown Gnomon (GB)J: Tom Cannon bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 7/2F
25 Apr 26 Sandown Talakan (FR)J: Kevin Brogan bet365 Novices' Championship Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good · 15 ran 7th 11/1
08 Apr 26 Fontwell Duhallow Tommy (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan Southern Cranes And Access Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 3rd 6/4F
06 Apr 26 Plumpton Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Roy Reeve Memorial Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 1st 11/4
29 Mar 26 Ascot Gnomon (GB)J: Kevin Brogan Ascot Racecourse Supports Horse Rangers Hampton Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 19.5f · Good · 4 ran 1st 4/7F
23 Mar 26 Kempton Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Virgin Bet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 6/1
16 Mar 26 Plumpton Inedit De Mee (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 10/1
14 Mar 26 Kempton Surrey Quest (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24f · Good · 8 ran PU 12/1
11 Mar 26 Cheltenham Klimt Madrik (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 21f · Good To Soft · 21 ran 8th 80/1
09 Mar 26 Taunton Gnomon (GB)J: Kevin Brogan DragonBet The Roar Before BOG At Cheltenham Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 5/2
08 Mar 26 Warwick Talakan (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Oddschecker Free Bets Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 10/3
07 Mar 26 Hereford I Play County (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan fairplaybet.co.uk Bet 20 Get 20 Free Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25f · Good · 4 ran 4th 8/1
05 Mar 26 Wincanton Duhallow Tommy (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan Women Investors Network Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 3rd 3/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 21 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 21 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Toby Lawes's strike rate?
Toby Lawes has won 63 of 453 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Toby Lawes do best at?
Plumpton by strike rate: 9 wins from 45 runners (20%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Toby Lawes?
Kevin Brogan, with 167 runners since 2008 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (13.8%).
What is Toby Lawes's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 453 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).