4:45 Doncaster
This 4:45 at Doncaster is a Class 4 nursery handicap over 6f for two-year-olds on good to soft ground, featuring a field of 16 with a genuinely-run pace shape that promises a fair test. The KTB Fit scores highlight a competitive but compact top end, with Innichen heading the numbers at 63, followed closely by Henley On Thames on 60 and then Tumishi, Pride Of Toledo and Wait Geordie all in the high 50s. Overall the KTB assessment points to a race where proven ability at the trip, trainer course records and the ability to handle a strong gallop will be key.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape and high confidence, a front-runner is expected to be pressed by several handy types, setting up an even, searching test. Wait Geordie is the clear front-runner from his record, while Pride Of Toledo and It Dunt Marra like to race prominently and Washington Royale tends to race handily. The majority of the field, including the top three in the KTB rankings, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late off what should be a sound pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Innichen KTB Selection63/100
Innichen is a fair 2-year-old boasting a solid career record of two wins and a third from his last three starts, including a win at today's trip from three attempts. He now steps up from 5f which poses a fresh question, yet the form suggests the extra distance should lie within range. The Jack Channon yard posts a 17% strike rate at Doncaster from 48 runs with an A/E of 1.15, while Tom Marquand knows the track well with a 13% strike rate from 226 rides and an A/E of 1. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 11 in a race where the pace should be strong enough to suit his style. His recent form figures of 211303 underline his consistency at this level.
-
2Henley On Thames60/100
Henley On Thames is a fair performer who has improved with every run and arrives in excellent order after two quick wins at this trip. Stall 12 looks far from ideal on a straight track, yet the Kevin Philippart De Foy yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Doncaster from 38 runs with an A/E of 1.09. The trip is no issue and the form carries plenty of substance, with recent figures of 62211 underlining his upward curve. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he drops in class here while David Egan has a 16% strike rate at the track from 194 rides. The going remains unproven on good to soft.
-
3Tumishi58/100
Tumishi is a fair 2-year-old who has shown steady improvement, winning over this trip on his second start before finishing a creditable third last time out. The James Fanshawe yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Doncaster from a large sample of 507 runs with an A/E of 1.01, while Daniel Muscutt rides the track well with a 15% record from 207 rides. The trip is no issue and he is drawn low in stall 2, which could prove an advantage in a strongly-run race. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the going remains an unknown with no runs on good to soft so far from his three starts.
-
4Pride Of Toledo58/100
Pride Of Toledo is a fair performer who has already won over today's trip on his second start. The form of his latest fifth looks nothing special and he now steps back up into a Class 4 after mixing it at a higher level, having been placed once from one run on good to soft. Clive Cox has an 11% strike rate at Doncaster from 315 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while P J McDonald has a modest 10% record from 514 rides. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he is drawn in stall 8 and his recent form figures read 514.
-
5Wait Geordie56/100
Wait Geordie is a fair 2-year-old who has shown mixed form across six runs, including a win and a third but also several lesser efforts at shorter trips. He steps up to 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him, with the going suitability unknown from no runs on good to soft. Hugo Palmer operates at a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 187 runs with an A/E of 1.07, while Conor Whiteley has an impressive 36% strike rate from a small sample of 11 rides with an A/E of 3.12. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, his recent form figures of 138785 show both promise and inconsistency.
-
6Baddaddan55/100
Baddaddan is a fair 2-year-old who has already won over today's trip on his second start. The form of his latest effort is nothing special and he is drawn widest of all in stall 14, while the going remains unproven on good to soft.
-
7Launch Sequence55/100
Launch Sequence has been placed third on all three starts so far and showed he handles this trip when finishing in the same spot over 6f on debut. He drops back from 7f having been beaten over that longer distance last time, while first-time headgear is now applied and he has course form having finished third here.
-
8It Dunt Marra55/100
It Dunt Marra is a fair 2-year-old with solid placed form including a second at this track. The recent ninth was disappointing yet the earlier figures still look competitive in this grade, and he drops in class while wearing no headgear.
-
9Washington Royale53/100
Washington Royale is a fair colt who showed his best form when winning a similar race over this trip last time. He handles good to soft ground having won from one run on it, though stall nine is no help on his first run since that win.
-
10Super Tuscan52/100
Super Tuscan is a fair 2-year-old who has shown consistent form across six runs this year, including a win at this trip from four attempts. He has run well enough at Doncaster before though the going remains an unknown.
-
11Beresford Gap46/100
Beresford Gap has shown consistent modest form in three runs, finishing placed twice at today's trip. He steps up in class while remaining lightly raced, with only modest ability on display so far.
-
12Bear Lee45/100
Bear Lee is a fair performer who has shown mixed form across five runs, winning once but failing to place in three of his last four starts. Drawn in stall 1 which could prove handy, though he has been beaten on all four attempts at this trip.
-
13Sir Sirius43/100
Sir Sirius has shown fair form in three starts and is not fully exposed. He has failed to place in two runs at this trip and draws a wide stall in 13 which will not help.
-
14Fasthope42/100
Fasthope is a modest performer on the balance of his five runs. He has won once at this trip from three attempts and drops back from 7f which could suit, though the wide draw in stall 15 is a clear negative.
-
15Fern Clyde39/100
Fern Clyde is a modest performer who has shown a mixed bag this season with a win and two placings from seven starts. He has won at this trip but the wide draw in stall 16 looks far from ideal on his first run at Doncaster.
-
16Sue's Last Chance37/100
Sue's Last Chance has shown modest form across four runs at this trip and looks no better than that on recent ratings. First-time headgear is now tried while the small sample on good to soft leaves the going an unknown.
KTB verdict
Innichen is the KTB Selection and sets a strong standard as a fair 2-year-old with a solid career record that includes two wins and a third from his last three starts, one of them over today's trip. The step up from 5f looks within range on his form, the Jack Channon yard holds a 17% strike rate at Doncaster, and Tom Marquand is a positive booking on a horse that should be suited by the expected strong pace from his held-up style. His main dangers are Henley On Thames, who arrives in excellent order after two quick wins at the trip with solid yard figures at the track, and Tumishi, whose steady improvement, low draw and strong trainer-jockey course stats make him a live contender despite the ground question.
KTB Selection Innichen
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course form in the race?
Launch Sequence has course form, having finished third on his one run at Doncaster.
Which runners are proven on good to soft ground?
Pride Of Toledo has been placed once from one run on good to soft, Washington Royale has a win from one run on good to soft, Fasthope has been placed once from two runs on good to soft, and Innichen has one run on good to soft with no win or place.
Who is the only front-runner in the field?
Wait Geordie tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse is making its first start in first-time headgear?
Launch Sequence and Sue's Last Chance are both wearing first-time headgear.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Doncaster in this race?
Conor Whiteley has a 36% strike rate at Doncaster from 11 rides with an A/E of 3.12.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies