4:48 Redcar
A competitive Class 6 handicap over 7f at Redcar on good ground features a field of 19, many of them modest performers with mixed recent form. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Moostar on 62, with several others in the low-to-mid 50s underlining how little separates the principals on current ratings. Most of the runners are hold-up types, and with the official figures clustered between 51 and 65, the race is likely to be decided by how well they handle a strong pace and whether any can improve their record at the track or under the prevailing conditions.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is strong with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners in Penny Ghent, Oh So Perfect, Miss Willows and Uncertainty, all of whom tend to race on the pace or make it. This should ensure a genuine gallop that could set up the race for those coming from off it, particularly as most of the field – including all five principals – are held-up runners. The key question is whether the leaders will fold late under pressure, allowing the hold-up horses to pick up the pieces in the final furlong, or if one of the pace-setters can steal it by dictating from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Moostar KTB Selection62/100
Moostar is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when winning over this trip last time. He has placed twice from four starts on good ground and the yard has an 11% strike rate at Redcar from nine runners. First run at the track and the 7 lb claimer takes the ride. Usually held up and produces its effort late, he is well suited by the strong pace likely here and arrives in form having won on his most recent start. The combination of a recent success, a competitive mark of 64 and the yard's respectable record at the venue makes him the one to beat.
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2Kiss Me My Love60/100
Kiss Me My Love is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won both starts at Redcar. Recent form is mixed but she has shown enough placed efforts at this trip to suggest she can be competitive again off her current mark. Trainer and jockey both have established 14% strike rates at the track. Dropping in class from a mark of 65, she is another who is usually held up and produces its effort late, which should play into her hands given the expected strong pace. Two wins from ten starts on good ground further underline her suitability to the conditions.
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3Reginald Charles55/100
Reginald Charles is a modest performer who has been placed on all three visits to Redcar and looks well suited by the return to 7f having won at the trip earlier in his career. Consistent recent form of 352632 shows he remains competitive at this level though he is yet to win on good ground from five attempts. Trainer strikes at 8% here from a big sample while jockey operates at 10%. Usually held up with high confidence, he should be ideally positioned to capitalise if the leaders go too hard. His placed record at the course from three runs adds to his claims off an OR of 61.
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4Highfield Viking53/100
Highfield Viking is a modest performer who has been in and out this season and showed his best when winning a similar race at Beverley last time. He has a solid record at this trip with four wins from 31 starts and goes well on good ground with two wins and six places from 13 runs. Drawn wide at a track where he has only run once before and the yard's 16% strike-rate from 49 runs here is respectable. Usually held up with high confidence, his latest success suggests he retains ability off a mark of 65. The wide draw in stall 20 is the main concern in a race where positioning could be vital.
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5Folkene53/100
Folkene is a modest performer who has been out of the frame in all six starts this year. Has won over today's trip but is 0-5 on good ground and looks badly drawn in stall 15. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Redcar while the jockey is operating below expectations here with an 8% record from 25 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be looking to come from off the strong pace. The lack of recent form and the wide draw make this a stiff task despite an OR of 65.
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6March Ahead53/100
March Ahead is a modest performer who has failed to land a blow in three runs this year and looks exposed after eight starts. Has never won or placed on good ground from just two attempts and is now trying Redcar for the first time. Trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate here from a big sample while jockey is operating at 9%.
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7Saxon Prince52/100
Saxon Prince is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and looks up against it again from a modest recent form line. The yard has a solid 16% strike-rate at Redcar while the 3lb claimer is operating above the course average, but the colt is unproven on good ground and first-time headgear is now needed. He has tried this trip four times without success.
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8Filey Beach48/100
Filey Beach is a limited horse who has won five times at this trip but has been largely out of form this year and looks modest on recent ratings. Has shown some ability on good ground and at this track without ever looking particularly well treated. Trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records here.
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9Penny Ghent47/100
Penny Ghent is a limited performer who has run six times here without winning but has been placed three times including two seconds. She drops back to 7f today having last run over a mile and holds a placed record at the trip without a win. The trainer's modest 2% strike rate at Redcar is offset by the jockey's strong 30% record at the track. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, she could set the strong tempo.
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10Sir David47/100
Sir David is limited on ability and has been on the go a long time now. He did win over this trip on good ground earlier in the year and has placed twice here at Redcar in the past, so the track and conditions are no problem. The yard and jockey both have modest records at the course.
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11Thornaby Annie46/100
Thornaby Annie is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this trip, placing three times from four starts without winning. She has been placed once from two runs here and acts on good ground in a limited sample. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Redcar.
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12Travis44/100
Travis has been running consistently at a low level with three placed efforts from his last six starts yet remains limited on the class read. He has won over this trip and on good ground and returns to the scene of his sole course success from four attempts. The yard has a modest record here while the jockey is operating at a low strike rate.
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13Oh So Perfect44/100
Oh So Perfect is a limited performer who has shown little since early wins. Steps up to 7f today having won twice at the trip from six attempts but was well held over 6f last time and has managed only two runs on good ground without placing. Trainer holds an 8% strike rate at Redcar from 130 runs while the jockey is operating at 12% from 67 rides here. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could be involved in setting the strong tempo.
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14Willowinghurn43/100
Willowinghurn is a limited class performer who has won both here and at today's trip. Recent form has been patchy but he has shown enough on good ground to stay competitive at this level. Trainer has a solid record at Redcar while the jockey's modest strike rate here offers little encouragement.
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15Triple P41/100
Triple P is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in four starts, including a fair fourth over 6f here last time. Steps up to 7f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question. Tim Easterby has an 8% strike rate from 2372 runs at Redcar while Duran Fentiman is 4% from 761 rides at the track.
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16Night Emperor40/100
Night Emperor is a limited performer who has run respectably here without winning since scoring over 6f on debut. He has shown bits of form on good ground but remains winless at this trip in four attempts and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer's modest strike rate at Redcar is offset by the jockey's solid record at the track.
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17Miss Willows39/100
Miss Willows is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and sits on a long losing run. She does have a win here from two runs at Redcar and has scored three times at today's 7f trip, though she steps up in distance having last run over 6f. The trainer's modest 2% strike-rate at the track is a clear negative while the jockey's 20% record offers some compensation. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, she could help ensure the strong gallop.
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18Stoneywell37/100
Stoneywell is a limited performer who has been well beaten on all six starts this year and showed little at this track on his only previous visit. The yard and jockey both operate at a 4% strike rate here with modest A/E figures. He has placed once on good ground and once at this trip but looks up against it from stall 9.
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19Uncertainty32/100
Uncertainty is a limited horse who has been struggling for form all year and finished no better than mid-division in six runs this season. Steps up to 7f for the first time today having been placed at the trip earlier in his career, though he has shown nothing lately to suggest he is ready to capitalise. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Redcar. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could be involved early.
KTB verdict
Moostar is the KTB Selection and arrives with the strongest recent form of the principals after winning over this trip last time. A modest performer who has placed on good ground, he is ideally suited by the strong pace that should unfold and the yard's record at Redcar adds further confidence. His hold-up style should see him delivered late when it matters most. The main dangers are Kiss Me My Love, who boasts a perfect record at the track, and Reginald Charles, who has been placed on all three previous visits to Redcar and looks ideally suited by the return to this distance. Highfield Viking and Folkene cannot be entirely dismissed but both face questions over draw and current form.
KTB Selection Moostar
This is the narrative read of the 4:48 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Redcar racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Penny Ghent, Oh So Perfect, Miss Willows and Uncertainty are the front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How does the strong pace shape affect the principals?
All five principals are held-up runners who produce their effort late, so the likely collapse of the pace should favour them.
Which horse has the best course record at Redcar?
Kiss Me My Love has won both starts at Redcar, while Reginald Charles has been placed on all three visits.
Who is the only horse in the field wearing first-time headgear?
Saxon Prince and Night Emperor are both wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Redcar among those represented?
John & Sean Quinn have a 16% strike rate at Redcar from 49 runs.
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