What is David Probert's strike rate?

David Probert has won 1,769 of 15,305 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Probert do best at?

Chester by strike rate: 56 wins from 356 rides (15.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does David Probert ride most for?

Andrew Balding, with 3,695 rides since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 553 (15%).

Is David Probert in form?

In the last 14 days: 51 rides, 6 winners, a strike rate of 11.8%. That is in line with the baseline of 11.6% since 2008.

What is David Probert's Fair A/E?

1.05, from 15,219 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

David Probert

15,305 rides in the lifetime window · 7,497 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,769–15,305

Wins / Runs

11.6%

Strike rate

n=15,305

4,520 (30%)

Placed

1.05

Fair A/E

n=15,219 · 0.90 incl. margin

−2,428.78

£1 level stake

n=15,305 at SP · −15.9%

£21.1m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 810 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (1,549 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 15,305 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug 33.5% when favourite Andrew Balding: 15% from 3,695 LTO winners: 16.5% Rides the favourite in 9% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Ffos Las (19.4%, n=273), clear of the rider's 11.6% baseline. It is weakest at Newmarket (6.5% over 372 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.5% (n=1,549, Fair A/E 0.98), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 7.1% (n=658, Fair A/E 0.85). Andrew Balding supplies 24% of the rides and edges the rider's average (15% vs 11.6%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 7.1% over 658 rides, 4.5pts below the baseline. 47 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Qatar Stewards' Cup at Goodwood (Jul 2016, £155,625). The standout partner of the record: Dora Penny (GB) — 7 wins from 14 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10%−1.6

n=7,492 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −1,538.37

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.5%+4.9

n=1,549 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −332.70

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.5%−1.1

n=2,310 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −417.09

When favourite

33.5%

n=1,408 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −141.19

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.1%−0.5

n=808 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −145.58

Big fields · 14+ runners

7.2%−4.4

n=1,773 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −310.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.1%−4.5

n=658 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −221.51

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Ffos Las 19.4% vs 11.6% · n=273

With debutants 6.4% vs 11.6% · n=1,252

On last-time-out winners 16.5% vs 11.6% · n=1,549

At Newmarket 6.5% vs 11.6% · n=372

In Class 1 7.1% vs 11.6% · n=658

In Group / Graded races 7.1% vs 11.6% · n=658

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 15,302 1768 11.6% −2,429.53

Chase 3 1 33.3% +0.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 7,222 850 11.8% −1,099.51

Good to Firm 2,657 301 11.3% −624.85

Good 2,574 282 11% −364.30

Good to Soft 1,220 133 10.9% −199.08

Soft 1,076 132 12.3% +46.53

Heavy 301 36 12% −97.15

Firm 254 35 13.8% −89.42

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton 2,207 251 11.4% −213.40

Wolverhampton 2,000 221 11.1% −343.53

Lingfield 1,638 212 12.9% −129.28

Chelmsford (AW) 744 83 11.2% −242.46

Bath 672 87 12.9% −62.68

Windsor 662 62 9.4% −169.53

Chepstow 568 76 13.4% −129.36

Newbury 559 47 8.4% −69.54

Southwell (AW) 528 65 12.3% −137.67

Goodwood 487 46 9.4% −104.32

Brighton 455 70 15.4% −20.93

Ascot 438 33 7.5% −155.92

Salisbury 410 51 12.4% −19.37

Newmarket 372 24 6.5% −157.67

Chester 356 56 15.7% −45.79

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 4,895 627 12.8% −397.49

Class 6 4,176 473 11.3% −852.06

Class 4 2,991 347 11.6% −572.76

Class 2 1,334 125 9.4% −289.34

Class 3 1,150 134 11.7% −124.12

Class 1 658 47 7.1% −221.51

Class 7 99 15 15.2% +16.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,675 533 31.8% 1.05 −148.40

2nd–3rd fav 3,597 644 17.9% 1.08 −265.18

4th–6th fav 5,178 435 8.4% 1.05 −723.20

7th+ in betting 4,855 157 3.2% 0.94 −1,292.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 5,798 651 11.2% −974.03

1m – 1m1f 3,372 343 10.2% −640.04

1m2f – 1m4f 3,355 421 12.5% −509.24

Under 6f 1,741 232 13.3% −138.45

1m5f – 2m 961 115 12% −142.52

2m1f – 2m4f 75 7 9.3% −21.50

2m5f – 3m 3 0 0% −3.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 458 50 10.9% −83.83

2009 689 81 11.8% +19.49

2010 792 79 10% −150.06

2011 578 65 11.2% −134.25

2012 704 69 9.8% −266.77

2013 635 82 12.9% +32.83

2014 868 107 12.3% −192.27

2015 692 82 11.8% −206.22

2016 468 60 12.8% −71.44

2017 856 94 11% −256.57

2018 892 102 11.4% +9.33

2019 1,211 112 9.2% −272.51

2020 996 97 9.7% −215.35

2021 1,238 170 13.7% −60.55

2022 1,147 145 12.6% −324.74

2023 962 110 11.4% −108.74

2024 925 116 12.5% −97.58

2025 532 70 13.2% −24.14

2026 662 78 11.8% −25.41

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 10,163 1189 11.7% −1,316.36

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 5,464 648 11.9% −719.67

11-13 runners 4,652 390 8.4% −1,094.04

5-7 runners 3,122 520 16.7% −333.77

14-16 runners 1,280 100 7.8% −192.25

17+ runners 493 27 5.5% −118.50

2-4 runners 294 84 28.6% +29.45

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Highland Colori (IRE) 42 4 13 4 Nov 17

Dourado (IRE) 36 5 13 17 Mar 25

Pelham Crescent (IRE) 31 5 11 22 May 12

Misaro (GER) 27 6 13 2 May 11

Spanish Star (IRE) 26 4 12 24 Jun 25

Viola Park (GB) 26 5 13 31 Jan 21

Secret Potion (GB) 24 2 8 10 May 22

Fantasy Justifier (IRE) 23 2 7 31 Jan 21

Highland Knight (IRE) 23 4 9 19 Sep 14

Famous Dynasty (IRE) 22 0 5 18 May 22

Verne Castle (GB) 22 3 7 10 Aug 18

Autumn Blades (IRE) 22 4 14 4 Dec 10

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 7,497 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 13 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

6 from 51 11.8% · +0.2pts vs baseline

Last 14 days11.8%

Lifetime base11.6%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

131214111110131311101011

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardAndrew Balding

24% of all rides
15% SR · A/E 1.06

TrainerRWSR£1

Andrew Balding 3,695 553 15% −225.63

Ronald Harris 521 64 12.3% +110.73

Tony Carroll 430 33 7.7% −164.70

Mark Usher 390 37 9.5% −89.98

Patrick Chamings 360 44 12.2% −47.52

Bryn Palling 228 18 7.9% +26.75

Rae Guest 224 32 14.3% −40.31

Michael Blanshard 214 15 7% −77.62

Henry Candy 212 27 12.7% −42.06

Alan King 182 22 12.1% −29.25

Hugo Palmer 178 21 11.8% +44.39

Gay Kelleway 170 17 10% −30.88

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

1,770

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£21.1m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 170 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Dancing Star (GB) — Qatar Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap) Goodwood · Jul 2016 · Class 2

£155,625

Sandrine (GB) — World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Jul 2022 · Group 2

£102,078

Coppull (GB) — Markel Richmond Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Jul 2025 · Group 2

£99,243

Notable horses

Dora Penny (GB) Misaro (GER) Dourado (IRE) Pelham Crescent (IRE) Viola Park (GB) Eye Of The Water (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dark Angel (IRE) 12.9% · 39–303

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,941 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Oasis Dream (GB) 14.3% · 35–245

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,040 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 484. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.

Kodiac (GB) 8.4% · 20–237

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,598 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Acclamation (GB) 12.5% · 28–224

Progeny have won 10% of 19,711 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 7.9% · 12–152

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,036 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Kyllachy (GB) 10.1% · 15–148

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 15,352 · newest first

The latest 50 of 15,352 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 December 2006 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Hoya Bella (GB)T: James Owen Make The Move To Midnite Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 100/30

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Ribenska (IRE)T: Charlie Fellowes AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 11/4F

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Rogue Inferno (IRE)T: Edward Bethell AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 33/1

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Nolton Cross (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 5/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Goldfinder (GB)T: Patrick Chamings Try Unibet's Smartview Racecards Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 9th 14/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Lieutenant Kije (GB)T: Tom Ward Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 3rd 9/2

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Amelia's Joy (GB)T: Michael Herrington Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 7 ran 4th 5/2

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Brian (IRE)T: J. S. Moore Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap StakesClass 2 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 4th 28/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Cabeceo (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer British EBF Future Stayers Maiden Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 7th 12/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Wailaki (GB)T: David Menuisier Unibet/British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Div II) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 8th 25/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Port Erin (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 6th 14/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Hamdania (IRE)T: James Horton ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 10/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Fresh Fade (IRE)T: Michael Attwater ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 18/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Queen Tamara (IRE)T: Harry Charlton AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 7/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Scarlett's Spell (IRE)T: Ed Dunlop AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 150/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Hosta (GB)T: Hughie Morrison All-Weather Championship Is Back EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 200/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Mother Dear (GB)T: Hughie Morrison Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 13.5f · Standard · 6 ran 4th 13/2

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Startling (GB)T: John Wainwright Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 13/8F

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Stenmark (IRE)T: Gihan Arnolda Munich's Allianz-grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 12th 28/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Cracking Idea (IRE)T: Ed Dunlop Idee 158. German Derby In Hamburg Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 10 runs (won 3, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 13 runs (won 2, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 10 runs (won 3, 1 did not run) · to 5 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is David Probert's strike rate?: David Probert has won 1,769 of 15,305 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Probert do best at?: Chester by strike rate: 56 wins from 356 rides (15.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does David Probert ride most for?: Andrew Balding, with 3,695 rides since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 553 (15%).
Is David Probert in form?: In the last 14 days: 51 rides, 6 winners, a strike rate of 11.8%. That is in line with the baseline of 11.6% since 2008.
What is David Probert's Fair A/E?: 1.05, from 15,219 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.