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Jockey profile

Harry Cobden

5,273 rides in the lifetime window · 1,787 individual horses
As at 15 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
In form — 8 winners last 14 days Won yesterday Last ride yesterday 100% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
1,127–5,273
Wins / Runs
21.4%
Strike rate
n=5,273
2,191 (42%)
Placed
1.07
Fair A/E
n=5,267 · 0.93 incl. margin
−605.58
£1 level stake
n=5,270 at SP · −11.5%
£21.8m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
18.9%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 280 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 21% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 27% (1,104 rides). Rides mostly for Paul Nicholls — 54% of rides in the window. The rider is in form now — 8 winners in the last fortnight, above their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 5,273 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Sep–Nov 43.7% when favourite Paul Nicholls: 24.3% from 2,838 LTO winners: 27.3% Rides the favourite in 25% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (47.1%, n=34) and Wincanton (30.4%, n=414) — all clear of the rider's 21.4% baseline. It is weakest at Cheltenham (12.1% over 412 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 27.3% (n=1,104, Fair A/E 1.05), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 13.5% (n=785, Fair A/E 1.23). Claiming rides are the standout value angle: 18.6% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.16 and +15.70 to a £1 stake over 338 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the rider is firing: 8 winners from 29 rides in the last 14 days (27.6%, 6.2pts above the 21.4% baseline). Paul Nicholls supplies 54% of the rides and edges the rider's average (24.3% vs 21.4%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (32.9%, n=158) and off a 0-7-day break (33.8%, n=77). 148 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the 32Red King George VI Chase at Kempton (Dec 2018, £142,375). The standout partner of the record: Pic D'orhy (FR) — 12 wins from 29 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Sep–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 21.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
19.9%−1.5
n=1,787 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −157.10
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
27.3%+5.9
n=1,104 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −187.40
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
18.9%−2.5
n=1,458 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −357.93
When favourite
43.7%
n=1,317 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −35.36
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
18.6%−2.8
n=338 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +15.70
Big fields · 14+ runners
13.5%−7.9
n=785 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −64.35
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
17%−4.4
n=871 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −103.40

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 21.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Musselburgh 47.1% vs 21.4% · n=34
On Good to Firm going 32.9% vs 21.4% · n=158
At Cheltenham 12.1% vs 21.4% · n=412
At Wincanton 30.4% vs 21.4% · n=414
Off a 0-7-day break 33.8% vs 21.4% · n=77
With Ron Hodges 8.7% vs 21.4% · n=46
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 2,847 639 22.4% −315.62
Chase 1,982 400 20.2% −189.66
NH Flat 436 87 20% −102.30
Flat 8 1 12.5% +2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 2,055 457 22.2% −234.83
Good to Soft 1,357 272 20% −173.94
Soft 1,264 255 20.2% −146.28
Heavy 411 88 21.4% −41.07
Good to Firm 158 52 32.9% +7.16
Standard (AW) 22 3 13.6% −10.62
Firm 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wincanton 414 126 30.4% +5.69
Cheltenham 412 50 12.1% −52.02
Newbury 346 73 21.1% −24.14
Chepstow 323 72 22.3% −76.62
Kempton 320 53 16.6% −88.49
Newton Abbot 310 70 22.6% −46.83
Taunton 308 89 28.9% −11.51
Exeter 277 62 22.4% −61.63
Sandown 233 41 17.6% −31.31
Ascot 225 40 17.8% −28.33
Fontwell 181 41 22.7% −40.00
Worcester 181 41 22.7% +20.69
Plumpton 157 43 27.4% +5.43
Aintree 146 24 16.4% +18.67
Uttoxeter 127 19 15% −5.51

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 1,668 432 25.9% −155.42
Class 3 1,175 259 22% −191.83
Class 1 996 166 16.7% −104.95
Class 5 682 145 21.3% −38.72
Class 2 669 111 16.6% −126.99
Class 6 40 5 12.5% +10.86

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1,453 617 42.5% 1.12 −17.95
2nd–3rd fav 1,856 368 19.8% 1.03 −247.96
4th–6th fav 1,299 105 8.1% 0.91 −362.67
7th+ in betting 662 34 5.1% 1.27 +23.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
83.8% completed · 4,829 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 1,982 78.5% 73 26 324 1 3
Hurdle 2,847 87.6% 55 15 277 1 6
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Pic D'Orhy (FR) 29 12 17 9 Apr 26
Bravemansgame (FR) 24 9 15 8 Feb 25
Rubaud (FR) 22 11 13 25 Apr 26
Dolos (FR) 20 5 11 1 May 23
Grand Sancy (FR) 20 4 6 17 Aug 22
Outlaw Peter (IRE) 19 9 14 15 Apr 26
Stage Star (IRE) 19 8 10 3 Apr 25
Mcfabulous (IRE) 19 8 13 11 Feb 23
Il Ridoto (FR) 18 2 4 17 Apr 26
Solo (FR) 18 3 6 22 Feb 25
Danny Kirwan (IRE) 18 4 6 13 Nov 23
Getaway Trump (IRE) 18 6 7 11 Jun 21
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,787 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 11 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form
8 from 29 27.6% · +6.2pts vs baseline
Last 14 days27.6%
Lifetime base21.4%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
202321191821222023232520
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardPaul Nicholls
54% of all rides
24.3% SR · A/E 1.04
TrainerRWSR£1
Paul Nicholls 2,838 691 24.3% −495.99
Colin Tizzard 630 103 16.3% +45.42
Emma Lavelle 120 30 25% −28.32
Anthony Honeyball 98 25 25.5% −10.16
Neil Mulholland 70 13 18.6% +1.50
James Owen 70 21 30% +6.70
Michael Blake 65 12 18.5% −13.66
Faye Bramley 55 14 25.5% −3.38
Milton Harris 54 14 25.9% −7.23
Robert Walford 53 10 18.9% −20.52
Ron Hodges 46 4 8.7% +8.00
W P Mullins 44 11 25% +16.52
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→
1,127
Archived wins
148
Pattern / graded wins
£21.8m
Prize money
2023
Best season · 143 wins
Clan Des Obeaux (FR) — 32Red King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Kempton · Dec 2018 · Grade 1
£142,375
Kandoo Kid (FR) — Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Newbury · Nov 2024 · Class 1
£142,375
Bravemansgame (FR) — Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Kempton · Dec 2022 · Grade 1
£142,375
Notable horses
Pic D'orhy (FR) Rubaud (FR) Bravemansgame (FR) Outlaw Peter (IRE) Stage Star (IRE) Mcfabulous (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Kapgarde (FR) 21.2% · 43–203
Progeny have won 12.4% of 6,648 runs since 2008 (726 horses).
Walk In The Park (IRE) 32.1% · 45–140
Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,108 runs since 2011 (713 horses).
Kayf Tara (GB) 24.8% · 34–137
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,772 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Getaway (GER) 20.3% · 25–123
Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,049 runs since 2016 (1,035 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Saint Des Saints (FR) 17.2% · 20–116
Progeny have won 15% of 5,370 runs since 2008 (645 horses).
Flemensfirth (USA) 21.5% · 23–107
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,297 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,273 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,273 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 March 2015 to 14 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
14 Nov 26 Cheltenham Eastern Whisper (GB)T: S G Carey Karndean Designflooring Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race(listed Race) (Registered As The Dorothy Paget) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 11/2
14 Nov 26 Cheltenham Meetmebythesea (IRE)T: Ben Pauling Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (Premier Handicap) (Registered As The William Holman) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 1st 2/1F
14 Nov 26 Cheltenham Charles Darnay (GB)T: James Owen JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle Race (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 3/1
13 Nov 26 Cheltenham Whermyrosemarygoes (IRE)T: Faye Bramley Valda Energy Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good · 16 ran 2nd 20/1
13 Nov 26 Cheltenham Red Acres Georgie (IRE)T: Anthony Mullins Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Race(grade 2) (Registered As The Hyde) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 21f · Good · 8 ran 6th 16/1
13 Nov 26 Cheltenham Triple Trade (GB)T: Joe Tizzard Jilly Cooper Veterans' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 2 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 3/1
13 Nov 26 Cheltenham Jonbon (FR)T: Nicky Henderson Shloer Steeple Chase (Registered As The Cheltenham Steeple Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Good · 3 ran 1st 1/2F
11 Nov 26 Ayr Jeriko Du Reponet (FR)T: Ben Haslam Coral "Bet£5 Get£30 New Customer Offer" 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20.5f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 100/30
09 Nov 26 Carlisle Kientzheim (FR)T: Ben Haslam Great Gable Mares' Handicap Steeple Chase (Queen Boudicca Mares' Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 1st 13/8F
09 Nov 26 Carlisle Minutes To Spare (IRE)T: Donald McCain Racing TV Maiden Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 9th 12/1
08 Nov 26 Ffos Las Imperial Bede (FR)T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill 3A's Leisure Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 10/1
08 Nov 26 Ffos Las Kiptanuy (FR)T: Anthony Honeyball Fedwen Tentage Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 8th 9/1
08 Nov 26 Ffos Las Corner Forward (IRE)T: Anthony Honeyball Golwg Gwendraeth Novices' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran 1st 5/4F
08 Nov 26 Ffos Las Stratton Oakmont (IRE)T: Kayley Woollacott Dandara Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 10/1
07 Nov 26 Aintree Hercule Du Seuil (FR)T: Neil Mulholland Play Lucky Stable With William Hill Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 11 ran PU 16/1
07 Nov 26 Aintree Alexei (GER)T: Joe Tizzard William Hill Molyneux Hurdle Race (Grade 2) (Formerly Registered As The Elite Hurdle) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 1st 4/7F
07 Nov 26 Aintree Petit Tonnerre (FR)T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran PU 11/1
07 Nov 26 Aintree Black Eddy (GB)T: Mickey Bowen William Hill Epic Boosts EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 2 ran 2nd 11/10
06 Nov 26 Aintree Limier D'arthel (FR)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 11/4
06 Nov 26 Aintree Montregard (FR)T: Tom Lacey BetMGM Handicap Steeple Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 25f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 13 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 22 runs (won 4, 5 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 13 runs (won 2, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 12 runs (won 3, 1 did not run) · to 13 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Harry Cobden's strike rate?
Harry Cobden has won 1,127 of 5,273 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 21.4% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Harry Cobden do best at?
Wincanton by strike rate: 126 wins from 414 rides (30.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Harry Cobden ride most for?
Paul Nicholls, with 2,838 rides since 2008 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 691 (24.3%).
Is Harry Cobden in form?
In the last 14 days: 29 rides, 8 winners, a strike rate of 27.6%. That is above the baseline of 21.4% since 2008.
What is Harry Cobden's Fair A/E?
1.07, from 5,267 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).